I'm glad to see that Sherdog is largely not shitting on Suga for this reasonable take.
People have been spoiled by champ champs in the last 7 years, but forget how unheard of it was prior to this era post Conor. It had been attempted before/fighters feared to try it. Then we got a few in a row and it seemed like it wasn't that bad, but now meanwhile GOATs like Izzy, Volk, and TJ have failed since then. Jones is like the most recent and he took 3 years to do so and is the MMA GOAT on top of that. It's as hard as it should be to transcend skills across weight.
It's a hard task. People fight in their weight classes for a reason. 10lbs, or whatever the weight class difference may be, doesn't sound like much but it is. The weight classes and drug testing are pretty much the only two controlled variables we have for fights these days. Playing with that, and in favour of the higher weight champ, is obviously going to be an uphill battle. That's why we reward it.
That said, as much as I respect Volk and would heavily favour him in a money line bet, I'd also be willing to bet on Suga by KO. Not higher that an outright Volk money line, but let's be honest: Volk's chin is bad and Suga hits hard, accurate, and probably better than anybody he's fought. A KO isn't the most unreasonable outcome. I'd expect a late Volk TKO/decision, but would also throw some money on Suga by KO. It'd probably be in the +400-600 range and that's a fantastic opportunity.
It's funny but Topuria is actually probably the harder fight IMO simply because the chin/striking becomes closer. Again, I doubt Suga is champ champ status, but Volk isn't the most unreasonable option he's got. It's actually a pretty good one. If Islam is dropping you and striking with you, then Sean's got a chance. Topuria on paper is actually the more head to head match up.