International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[San Marino]

 

[San Marino]

I know you know all of this, and I'm just the latest of many that have reminded you of these facts time and time again. So why do you keep parroting the same tired lines? It really is pathetic. At least come up with something a 5 year old couldn't debunk and stick to that. The "NATO on Russia's doorstep schtick" is so tired it really doesn't help your case for the very occasional times your say something pertinent or germane.

Check the video on post #13,661.
I don't care what you and others think of the "Ukraine joining NATO provoked Russia" narrative. It remains the #1 reason Putin invaded Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Lithuania are not Ukraine. They don't have the same history or significance. Ukraine was the 'crown-jewel' of the Soviets and Putin wants as much of it back. Certainly, the eastern portion of the country, and certainly not a Ukraine aligned with NATO. I don't care you get tired of hearing this. It is because you don't believe this is the reason for the invasion. You and others just cover your eyes and ears and say: La, la, la, la, la to ignore reality. That is what a 5-year-old does.

 

[San Marino]

Such a great supporter of Ukraine he had the country's flag pin upside down.

 

[San Marino]

No one can get any "behind enemy line" types actually behind the line since everything is being observed 24/7 via drones and all is visible from frontline to 20km deep

Drones have now changed warfare forever. The next step is creating a drone that can shoot other drones down so we can go back to the way we used to fight. Kind of like fighter jets having a dogfight in the sky. I'm surprised I have not seen or read anything about this development. A radio signal is easy to disrupt, but a wire guided drone is a different story. Destroying drones at night is also another problem. This is a new sector where there is lots of money to be made for those who create it.

 

[San Marino]

Did Putin forget that the Soviet Union got bogged down in Afghanistan for 10 years and was one of the reasons why the USSR collapsed.

Afghanistan was not the reason why the USSR collapsed. If that was the case, the US would have collapsed after Vietnam.

 

[San Marino]

The best way I can see Russia winning is to conduct a huge operation that will give them a really decisive victory, but it doesn't seem possible at this point.

Depends on how you define a decisive victory.
In many ways, Russia has already won. They have kept Ukraine from joining NATO and they have captured 20% of the eastern portion of the country. I do believe we will be seeing a peace agreement coming to fruition in another 2 to 3 months. Russia will keep what it currently has, and Ukraine will not join NATO. I think by the time it is all said and done, Russia will have taken 30% to 40% of Ukraine. Ukraine is currently in a very weak situation.

 

[Boxiana]

I can see that things look gloomy for Ukraine right now, but I still think that Ukraine will still be standing once this is all over. Russia doesn't have the manpower to occupy an adversarial nation and occupy it.

The numbers aren't there, and they've burned through too many bodies just to get to this point.

A compliant government overseeing the country can do the job - that was the plan at the start at least.

 

[Boxiana]

There's no way Ukraine gives up anytime soon. I can't think of a single historical example of a country getting invaded, locked in a long grinding attritional war, and eventually capitulating. I'm no expert but I can't think of any example.

In every example I can think of, the aggressor was the one who eventually gave up /surrendered or the aggressor won very quick decisive victories. The Winter War is maybe the most similar example to this current conflict but we know the USSR didn't really win that war.

The best way I can see Russia winning is to conduct a huge operation that will give them a really decisive victory, but it doesn't seem possible at this point. They don't have the material to even think of operations like that. They don't even have air superiority. Slow attritional grind is their only way but they're at a disadvantage being the aggressor. I do think the Russia can win, but it's going to be at such a cost that I would be surprised if Russia doesn't collapse immediately after the win, at which point Ukrainian partisans will probably just declare independence again.

They are being forced to the table by the US - if they don’t negotiate they risk losing more territory (let’s be clear, Europe is not filling the gap in equipment and intelligence left by the US), and if they do they’ll be forced to give up territory like in the Winter War.

The US wants Ukraine to cut its losses, and it seems that’s what it will have to do.

 

[GhostZ06]

They are being forced to the table by the US - if they don’t negotiate they risk losing more territory (let’s be clear, Europe is not filling the gap in equipment and intelligence left by the US), and if they do they’ll be forced to give up territory like in the Winter War.

The US wants Ukraine to cut its losses, and it seems that’s what it will have to do.

Thats a shitty thing to do, we should give then NATO and EU membership. Instead we look weak and trump looks like a pussy, hes geting outsmarted by putler.

 

[curryjunkie]

They are being forced to the table by the US - if they don’t negotiate they risk losing more territory (let’s be clear, Europe is not filling the gap in equipment and intelligence left by the US), and if they do they’ll be forced to give up territory like in the Winter War.

The US wants Ukraine to cut its losses, and it seems that’s what it will have to do.

Consensus among western analysts seems to be that unless the likes of China or the USA aid Russia, if Ukraine can hold out a year/ 18 months, European arms could arrive in enough numbers. Russia will make gains initially, especially now the Yanks have cut off supplies and intelligence. I agree with you that if Russia can influence the makeup of the Ukraine govt they stand to gain a lot, however they would have to get rid of zelensky, they had their shot through trump and it had the opposite effect. The risk is a fractured European response to this, if they are too slow to respond or some members drop out due to economic reasons( trump could kick start a huge financial crisis) Russia could end up with 4 oblasts and crimea. Lots depend on the orange fuckwit cos Russia can't do this on their own. Ukraine may be able to exhaust Russian troops if they are under supplied and regain ground , but I don't see them retaking all the territory.european leaders seem to be all in, they know if they don't stop Putin now, the same shit will start up again within a decade.

 

[jimmas99]

Trump is such a traitor its sickening.

 

[SandisLL]

Thats a shitty thing to do, we should give then NATO and EU membership. Instead we look weak and trump looks like a pussy, hes geting outsmarted by putler.

This is impossible. Even if Putin had agreed and they didn't had active war.


While most idiotic thing is that some EU countries really might afford to deplete stockpiles without any risk for them.

Ofc Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Chech Republic, Romania, Bulagaria and Greece in reality should increase stockpiles not deplete.

While there are countries with very low risk, like Belgium, Portugal.

If to talk about Belgium, they are usable, yes...
While nothing big they might supply, they does have really huge stockpiles with ammo for small arms... like 5.56/7.62 and not that bad foe 12.7 mm...
Plus this stuff is normal quality and even if old batches manufactured long ago...they for these does have normal storage conditions. This makes sense.

 

[SandisLL]

Then there U.K.
Zelenka ofc needed support ASAP and they get again next loan, now this ~3 b $ loan. And yes, this is debt and should be paid according to stuff signed. Plus not likely they asked just zelensky to sign this. Most likely get State Treasury warrants signed confirmed by ministers.... if not even more than just this.

This is peace of cake if compare that this is just money...money you can't load in barrel and use as projectile in war. You need toys...

Then next stuff, additionally they will provide 5000 missiles, however there 0 mention WHEN! this is very important....plus these are short range missiles....

 

[Cid]

Netherlands to Invest EUR 700 Million in Drone Production with Focus on Ukraine’s Defense Industry

Netherlands to Invest EUR 700 Million in Drone Production with Focus on Ukraine’s Defense Industry

armyrecognition.com

 

[SandisLL]

EC most likely will approve approx 15 b € c a type package but unfortunately this is not fast process and unfortunately it is just money not toys for game.
Will see ...

There are also discussions about ukr debts in all levels. From gov and municipal, companies and also private debts....

If Ukr will trigger them too much with talks about reconstruction like that they need 500+ b € after war..then ukr will see real hell.

Additionally grants are for free with clauses if they are used for purpose. If no, then grant should be repaid back....LOL.

 

[SandisLL]

Lavrov is with approx the same demands like year ago. If Ukr will agree, most likely will add next new demands, not lesser.

Russia is attempting to take more ground and Putin is confident...to continue.

Stuff Ukr really needs today is cluster ammo, mines, more = Better.
Actually if they aren't dumb they might install damn a lot of IEDs and of mines and IEDs secured with Bobby traps and anti handling devices used. More = Better.

 

[Anewt]

An NK soldier is probably better off in a NK gulag than on the frontlines of Ukraine.

Nah the army is far better option. If you end up in north korran gulag so does your entire family.

As fucked up aa the torture one can inflict on a individual.... its expotentially worse when they have your entire family

 

[SandisLL]

Why? I might read Lavrov and Medvedev statements.
Not alone to talk about stuff they yelled March 2022 th...LoL.

 

[SandisLL]

Nah the army is far better option. If you end up in north korran gulag so does your entire family.

As fucked up aa the torture one can inflict on a individual.... its expotentially worse when they have your entire family

If to bear in mind that some years ago North Korea had some kind of small purges to clean internal enemies, where bunch with high rank persons had been found guilty and executed....then you aren't safe even if you are general etc alike person.

 

[SandisLL]

Depends on how you define a decisive victory.
In many ways, Russia has already won. They have kept Ukraine from joining NATO and they have captured 20% of the eastern portion of the country. I do believe we will be seeing a peace agreement coming to fruition in another 2 to 3 months. Russia will keep what it currently has, and Ukraine will not join NATO. I think by the time it is all said and done, Russia will have taken 30% to 40% of Ukraine. Ukraine is currently in a very weak situation.

Again Lavrov office stuff.
Calm down, get paycheck and take rest.
Actually for Ukraine comrade better is to get that for West they always were Grey zone buffer and will be.

Comrade why you are posting there propaganda type stuff like in russian forums ? The same stuff. Just in English.