International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[PEB]

 

[Cid]

I think it boils down to:
While in theory both countries have enough manpower to fight for decades, it's easier for Russia to draw from its larger population. Tons of poor people in Russia that are willing to fight for a better salary.
Russia is able to produce or repurpose old soviet equipment at a faster pace than the West is able or willing to supply Ukraine. Despite Western equipment being superior.
Pitiful amounts such as 31 Abrams or 100 Leo 2 simply cannot cover the entire front line.
As crude as Russian training might be they're continually rolling out equipment with crews that can operate it to a degree.
Sanctions cause trouble to the Russian economy but they're mostly irrelevant to the short term manufacturing of military equipment because Russia is able to circumvent it due to its large oil and gold reserves.
Russian front line troops have inferior training compared to Western forces but they're similar to what Ukraine is able to provide.
Russian officers that deal with logistics, troop employment etc are professional and have been able to adapt.

Yeah almost all the reports are pure propaganda on both sides. No one even mentions the AFU's "kill talley" either because after awhile it got so farcical. If Russia lost those numbers they simply couldn't replace troops or hold any line. If 500k Ukrainian troops had been killed like the RU MOD claims than the entire Ukranian armed forces from before the war and almost all drafted since Feb 22 would be dead or injured.


In the fog of lies, I think the easiest way to think about it is the map. Each side has clear territorial objectives, so their progress or lack of progress is the best way to figure out what's up. Also, whether losses seem to be replaced or not, ie, units coming off the line and going back at full strength.

Simpler still: America no supply Ukraine no do good.

 

[Cid]

I think the frozen Russian assets going to Ukraine is a pipe dream. The money said assets generate does seem to be a lot more likely.
30 Billion would be helpful.

EU moves towards using €27bn in profit from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

Officials could put forward proposal before meeting of prime ministers in Brussels next week

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cid]

Olaf Taurus excuse #37: Will require German soldiers in Ukraine which risks a german war.

German lawmakers reject Taurus missiles for Ukraine — again – DW – 03/14/2024

The German parliament has voted against an opposition motion to allow long-range Taurus cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

www.dw.com

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Some hard words from Vladimir Vladimirovich:

When asked by state television presenter, Dmitry Kiselyov whether a nuclear conflict with the West was 'inevitable', Putin explained he did not yet have a reason to launch nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

"I don’t think that everything is rushing directly towards this, but we are ready," he said.

Putin added that if US troops were deployed to Ukraine or occupied territory that Russia claims as its own, it would be considered as 'unacceptable intervention' in the conflict.

"I have said many times that [Ukraine] is a matter of life and death for us," he said.

"Western elites have been accustomed for centuries to fill their bellies with human flesh and their pockets with money. But they must understand that their vampire ball is ending."

Russia says there can be no peace in Ukraine until Kiev surrenders four regions in the east and the south of the country that Moscow claims as its own.

 

[PEB]

Europe has bought a 120 billion in US made weapons in two years. Trump plans on impacting these sales.

This is all about boosting Russia an China. If Taiwan an Europe unable to expand their purchases. This will no doubt give some advantages to Russia in Europe an China in Taiwan.

This would also cause widespread job cuts in defense industries an suppliers. Now tell me again how Trump going to create jobs?

Side note as Saudi Arabia spent 2 billion in Musk takeover of Twitter, now Steve Mnuchin Trump's former treasure secretary who just received 1 billion from Saudi Arabia wants to lead a group to buy tiktok.

This could lead to far greater pro Putin storied on tiktok so th debate about who should run it could be complicated? They could be used to push pro Trump an pro China stories.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[PEB]

Powerful stuff an a message.

 

[PEB]

 

[Cid]

Bye bye Kaluga oil facility.

 

[AWilder]

 

[AWilder]

look @ViD more russian war crimes!

 

[PEB]

Well China finally told Putin to grow up "smoke and mirrors" but it's something.

"
China has warned Russia that a nuclear war “cannot be won” and must “never” be fought after Vladimir Putin said he was “ready” for conflict.

The Russian president said in an interview earlier this week that his country was “ready” for nuclear war from a “military-technical point of view”."

 

[Yotsuya]

I think the frozen Russian assets going to Ukraine is a pipe dream. The money said assets generate does seem to be a lot more likely.
30 Billion would be helpful.

EU moves towards using €27bn in profit from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

Officials could put forward proposal before meeting of prime ministers in Brussels next week

www.theguardian.com

This might take an election cycle in Europe to happen. SDP/Greens lead government will be history in two years in Germany. I'm hoping that will move things along.

 

[Strychnine]

Gerasimov, gone?

When I chase my dog I run after her screaming "Gerasimov!!!! Shoiguuuuuu! Where are the weapons!?!??!!??!"

 

[GhostZ06]

i imagine theyre not getting the fullest out of the HAMMER

 

[GhostZ06]

At this stage we don’t know exactly how Ukraine is employing its Hammers but, as we explained in the past, the roughly 45-mile range is achieved with a combination of the rocket booster and launch from high altitude. When released from lower altitude, where the Ukrainian Air Force often operates for its own protection, the range is reduced accordingly, down to around nine miles. Russian air defenses have continued to inflict a toll on the dwindling Ukrainian tactical jet fleet, including another MiG-29 loss over the Donetsk region last week.
Still, the fact Hammer has a motor means it can also be fired in a ‘pop-up’ mode, according to the manufacturer, which would provide a compromise between extended range and protection of the launch aircraft.
The versatility of the French-made weapon would be further enhanced were Ukraine to receive examples with the additional IIR or laser guidance. In the face of significant Russian electronic warfare efforts, including those aimed at Ukrainian munitions using GPS-assisted guidance, this flexibility would be a big bonus.

Ukraine’s MiG-29s Are Now Carrying French 'Hammer' Rocket-Assisted Bombs

France has said it will provide Ukraine with hundreds of AASM Hammer standoff precision standoff weapons, which are now arming the MiG-29.

www.twz.com

 

[Strychnine]

Russia's Top Oil Buyer Deals a Blow to Putin​

"India, a top purchaser of Russian oil, has stopped paying for Russian premium crude oil for two months now, according to a local newspaper.

Kommersant, a national Russian newspaper, reported on Thursday that India—the largest buyer of seaborne shipments of Russian oil—has refused to purchase Russian premium ESPO grade oil, which has a low sulfur content—for about two months now. Imports stopped in January and February, the publication said.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's foreign ministry for comment by email.

The move will serve as a blow to Moscow, which depends on its oil exports and energy industry; they make up some 30 percent of the country's budget revenues, and fund the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil, accounting for more than 12 percent of global crude-oil production, according to Statista, and the energy industry is considered a crucial lifeline for Russian President Vladimir Putin's economy."

MSN

 

[PEB]

Russia's Top Oil Buyer Deals a Blow to Putin​

"India, a top purchaser of Russian oil, has stopped paying for Russian premium crude oil for two months now, according to a local newspaper.

Kommersant, a national Russian newspaper, reported on Thursday that India—the largest buyer of seaborne shipments of Russian oil—has refused to purchase Russian premium ESPO grade oil, which has a low sulfur content—for about two months now. Imports stopped in January and February, the publication said.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's foreign ministry for comment by email.

The move will serve as a blow to Moscow, which depends on its oil exports and energy industry; they make up some 30 percent of the country's budget revenues, and fund the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil, accounting for more than 12 percent of global crude-oil production, according to Statista, and the energy industry is considered a crucial lifeline for Russian President Vladimir Putin's economy."

MSN

India was playing fast a lose with Russia trying to continue business as usual with the west while trying to get cheap oil it has finally caught up to them. Western nations have been cutting back ties with India and China and now looks like both of them are realizing this is a bad idea. China especially has seen their economy shrink by est 15 to 30 percent. The reason why such a wide range China is very tight lipped about their economic numbers and it is hard to get an actual number.