International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[SakurabasEar]

It's not a facilitation of peace, it's a pause before the invasion continues. Remember, the actual invasion started in 2014. Putin isn't giving up, he has no regard for human life or decency. his own people are totally irrelevant outside their use in getting him what he wants. But you're right that the decision to fight is up to Ukraine, as it has and will continue to be. Of course, they understand that the opposing, eh, positions in this are Putin who wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a sovereign nation, and Ukraine who wants to still be a sovereign nation. I'm sure they understand quite acutely that any pause is a holding action for the next part of the fight.

This I agree with, and keep in mind I have no personal stake here. But this is just one of those realities of life

Boarders change through force and power. Thats how we got our borders.

The question is, how many people need to die and how much money should we burn before we can agree on these borders

 

[Limbo Pete]

This I agree with, and keep in mind I have no personal stake here. But this is just one of those realities of life

Boarders change through force and power. Thats how we got our borders.

The question is, how many people need to die and how much money should we burn before we can agree on these borders

Calling this a border disagreement is a dramatic understatement; Putin wants to completely absorb their nation while burning out their ethnic identity. It's pure survival for Ukrainian people. People won't stop dying should Putin be given the keys to Ukraine, no, they will keep dying under occupation while their identity is scoured.

 

[SakurabasEar]

Calling this a border disagreement is a dramatic understatement; Putin wants to completely absorb their nation while burning out their ethnic identity. It's pure survival for Ukrainian people. People won't stop dying should Putin be given the keys to Ukraine, no, they will keep dying under occupation while their identity is scoured.

I'm not calling it a boader dispute, I'm simply stating that eventually everyone has to come to terms with reality, and then in this case establish borders

Just be glad they were only able to take those regions, and negotiate from there.

As for ethnic cleaning, I would be careful not to absorb propaganda from the east or west if I were you

 

[Limbo Pete]

I'm not calling it a boader dispute, I'm simply stating that eventually everyone has to come to terms with reality, and then in this case establish borders

Just be glad they were only able to take those regions, and negotiate from there.

As for ethnic cleaning, I would be careful not to absorb propaganda from the east or west if I were you

I imagine the ol "just come to terms with it" doesn't hold much water when someone is trying to conquer your entire country. I'm not sure what the propaganda shot is about, but I take Putin at his own words re: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity

 

[SandisLL]

The West doesn't want Putin to win, he just happens to have some friends in our Congress that are doing everything they can to keep us from helping. They are a minority overall, but unfortunately have control over a frustratingly significant portion of the process.

There is one very big shit up coming for Ukr.
50b EUR bill was financial bill and Orban managed to delay this 2 months.

While next bill supposed to be approwed in march 2024 is 20b EUR bill and Orban & Slovak PM told that Ukraine doesn't need military aid in form of weapons and ammunition supplies...instead Ukraine should negotiate with Putin.

Orban even had told that Ukraine should accept Putin's demands and should remain as country not in EU or NATO...ofc also cede territories.
While Orban told that he does have land border with Russia. He had told this in Baku to Aliev and now also for Erdogan...

Orban confirmed for EU that he does want to continue purchase russian nuclear fuel, natural gas, crude oil and fertilisers ....also advocated EU to remowe sanctions from Russia.

 

[Limbo Pete]

There is one very big shit up coming for Ukr.
50b EUR bill was financial bill and Orban managed to delay this 2 months.

While next bill supposed to be approwed in march 2024 is 20b EUR bill and Orban & Slovak PM told that Ukraine doesn't need military aid in form of weapons and ammunition supplies...instead Ukraine should negotiate with Putin.

Orban even had told that Ukraine should accept Putin's demands and should remain as country not in EU or NATO...ofc also cede territories.
While Orban told that he does have land border with Russia. He had told this in Baku to Aliev and now also for Erdogan...

Orban confirmed for EU that he does want to continue purchase russian nuclear fuel, natural gas, crude oil and fertilisers ....also advocated EU to remowe sanctions from Russia.

Yeah, Orban is a well known commodity at this point, and obviously one on the Putin payroll. Sooner or later we are going to get funding for Ukraine through the House, it's just a matter of time. Meanwhile, the best plan is just to ignore all the chuds and cynical naysayers that have been saying to same thing literally since day one: it's over, Ukraine needs to give up. Every single day of this war it's been the same shit. There's nothing they can do, they can't win, just give Putin what he already has and pinky swear not to join NATO or the EU. Pure dogshit, but such is life.

 

[SakurabasEar]

I imagine the ol "just come to terms with it" doesn't hold much water when someone is trying to conquer your entire country. I'm not sure what the propaganda shot is about, but I take Putin at his own words re: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity

Your viewpoint here is too emotional, in my opinion

I understand the resistance, the defense and the reason for Ukraine to have the right to defend itself. And I think they did a better than expected job of it. I'm just stating they're at that point where regaining those regions are strategically very unlikely.

Now you negotiate

 

[Limbo Pete]

Your viewpoint here is too emotional, in my opinion

I understand the resistance, the defense and the reason for Ukraine to have the right to defend itself. And I think they did a better than expected job of it. I'm just stating they're at that point where regaining those regions are strategically very unlikely.

Now you negotiate

Fart noises aside, negotiate what? Putin wants the entire country. He has laid out his vision for the world and it does not include a sovereign Ukraine.

 

[SakurabasEar]

Fart noises aside, negotiate what?

Negotiate a stop to the war

 

[BAM]

Negotiate a stop to the war

at what cost?

Given what happened with Crimea, where Russia took, and then came back. Settling with Russia will just lead to further aggression down the line. If I'm Ukraine, I grind this out and play the long game.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Negotiate a stop to the war

A war Putin started by choice and with the goal of conquering their entire country
You think letting him have half of what he wants will make him... not want the other half?

 

[SakurabasEar]

at what cost?

Given what happened with Crimea, where Russia took, and then came back. Settling with Russia will just lead to further agression down the line. If I'm Ukraine, I grind this out and play the long game.

I don't think the long game suits Ukraine at all. They're more dependent on foreign aid, personnel and munitions than Russia is, and are basically losing, albeit at an old people screwing pace

If they negotiate, and the war stops, Ukraine would have the opportunity to do a build up, and shore up its infrastructure, and maybe even save its hopeless demographics.

The long game only serves war profiteers really, because we're funding the fucking thing with our tax money lol

A war Putin started by choice and with the goal of conquering their entire country
You think letting him have half of what he wants will make him... not want the other half?

Yeah, of course I'm sure he does want the other half, and it sucks. But the sub human got the upper hand, and there isn't really another option right now.

You broker peace, and from there work to change the circumstances. There is no sustainable war really, it will only continue to demographically, psychologically, and monetarily reek havoc on any country that it takes place in

 

[BAM]

I don't think the long game suits Ukraine at all. They're more dependent on foreign aid, personnel and munitions than Russia is, and are basically losing, albeit at an old people screwing pace

If they negotiate, and the war stops, Ukraine would have the opportunity to do a build up, and shore up its infrastructure, and maybe even save its hopeless demographics.

The long game only serves war profiteers really, because we're funding the fucking thing with our tax money lol


Yeah, of course I'm sure he does want the other half, and it sucks. But the sub human got the upper hand, and there isn't really another option right now.

You broker peace, and from there work to change the circumstances. There is no sustainable war really, it will only continue to demographically, psychologically, and monetarily reek havoc on any country that it takes place in

the things you are describing isn't the long game. I'm talking about the next 100 years, not the next 12 months. You have the assistance of the west for now, ride it for all it's worth and that will improve what they can extract from Russia in a negotiation down the line.

What you are describing, is incredibly short-term - shoring up infrastructure, stopping aggression, demographics, etc.

 

[SakurabasEar]

the things you are describing isn't the long game. I'm talking about the next 100 years, not the next 12 months. You have the assistance of the west for now, ride it for all it's worth and that will improve what they can extract from Russia in a negotiation down the line.

What you are describing, is incredibly short-term - shoring up infrastructure, stopping aggression, demographics, etc.

Okay, im talking in the context of war or direct conflict.

Looking at the average war length, which is by most averages around 2.4 years. We are at 2 years, if you run it from the invasion. Which makes this a long term conflict already

With Ukraine casualties being at over 300k reportedly, This is not really sustainable for them

 

[BAM]

Okay, im talking in the context of war or direct conflict.

Looking at the average war length, which is by most averages around 2.4 years. We are at 2 years, if you run it from the invasion. Which makes this a long term conflict already

With Ukraine casualties being at over 300k reportedly, This is not really sustainable for them

regarding attrition, it's not just bodies, it's economics. Russia is harmed by all of this. Ukraine needs to create a sufficient deterrent, giving up 15 or 20% of their land for a 'peace' doesn't do much.

And Ukraine doesn't need to outlast Russia, just Putin, he's 71 and by many accounts not in amazing health. Maybe sticking out a few more years is all they need.

Outlast Putin, wait for the power vacuum fight in Russia, get stability, get in NATO, future is then secured.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I don't think the long game suits Ukraine at all. They're more dependent on foreign aid, personnel and munitions than Russia is, and are basically losing, albeit at an old people screwing pace

If they negotiate, and the war stops, Ukraine would have the opportunity to do a build up, and shore up its infrastructure, and maybe even save its hopeless demographics.

The long game only serves war profiteers really, because we're funding the fucking thing with our tax money lol


Yeah, of course I'm sure he does want the other half, and it sucks. But the sub human got the upper hand, and there isn't really another option right now.

You broker peace, and from there work to change the circumstances. There is no sustainable war really, it will only continue to demographically, psychologically, and monetarily reek havoc on any country that it takes place in

This defeatist thinking has been bandied around since before Putin even invaded initially, and it still makes no sense. It doesn't just "suck", the crisis is existential. Ukraine is fighting for it's existence, and it's not like they are just rolling over now and Putin has it all wrapped up. He won't stop until he conquers their entire country or is forcibly prevented from doing so. That is the cold hard reality.

 

[SakurabasEar]

This defeatist thinking has been bandied around since before Putin even invaded initially, and it still makes no sense. It doesn't just "suck", the crisis is existential. Ukraine is fighting for it's existence, and it's not like they are just rolling over now and Putin has it all wrapped up. He won't stop until he conquers their entire country or is forcibly prevented from doing so. That is the cold hard reality.

I'm not sure what you're arguing, are you insinuating that Ukraine is winning and that I'm full of shit and that if we just give it a couple more years or more money things will change?

I don't care to argue about what putin wants or doesn't want. I'm only stating that Ukraine's war effort is diminishing now, and the negotiation should be on the table*

 

[pseto223]

With Ukraine casualties being at over 300k reportedly, This is not really sustainable for them

"Reportedly" by Russian sources. "Reportedly" by USA sources it's 70k killed and 100k wounded. Citing Russian propaganda is never a good idea (unless you are siding with the Russians, which I hope you are not).

I don't care to argue about what putin wants or doesn't want. I'm only stating that Ukraine's war effort is diminishing now, and the negotiation should be on the table*

What constitutes "diminishing"? Ukraine is defending and Russia is barely conquering any land. Just the other day Caesar Kunikov sank and that ship is worth 200 million. Does that constitute a win in your book or not?

Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but citing Russian propaganda is not cool. Also it needs to be mentioned that Europe is currently drastically increasing its defense budgets and a lot of that money is going straight to the US military complex. Many neutral countries around the world are starting to opt for American weapons now that Russia is manufacturing weapons for its own needs (and also after it became obvious that most of Russia's weapons are too outdated, too expensive and too unreliable). So in the long term whatever taxpayer money is given to Ukraine, that money will likely come back as orders for the military complex (which will probably provide tens of thousands of jobs in coming years). Also USA is donating mostly older weapon systems, some of which are not actively manufactured anymore - those systems will be replaced with a newer ones. Is it bad for USA to update it's defensive arsenal?

 

[SakurabasEar]

"Reportedly" by Russian sources. "Reportedly" by USA sources it's 70k killed and 100k wounded. Citing Russian propaganda is never a good idea (unless you are siding with the Russians, which I hope you are not).



What constitutes "diminishing"? Ukraine is defending and Russia is barely conquering any land. Just the other day Caesar Kunikov sank and that ship is worth 200 million. Does that constitute a win in your book or not?

Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but citing Russian propaganda is not cool. Also it needs to be mentioned that Europe is currently drastically increasing its defense budgets and a lot of that money is going straight to the US military complex. Many neutral countries around the world are starting to opt for American weapons now that Russia is manufacturing weapons for its own needs (and also after it became obvious that most of Russia's weapons are too outdated, too expensive and too unreliable). So in the long term whatever taxpayer money is given to Ukraine, that money will likely come back as orders for the military complex (which will probably provide tens of thousands of jobs in coming years). Also USA is donating mostly older weapon systems, some of which are not actively manufactured anymore - those systems will be replaced with a newer ones. Is it bad for USA to update it's defensive arsenal?

You can state 170k casualties but there is no way thats accurate. And if I'm not mistaken based of of reports three months ago. Anyways, that reads like a kind of propaganda from our side. I don't read russian propaganda either by the way, but you can expect both these numbers to be off by a significant margin. If they only lost that many people, you wouldn't see them pulling 45 year olds off the street left and right. I bet its at least over 300k by this point, maybe even more. Until the dust has settled, we probably won't have honest count

I know Russian estimates are off, probably well over 400k by this point. But with a population of over 140 million, this is an advantage to russia still despite their bullshiting

Do I think sinking a ship is a win? Yes, but its not going to win this war. They're being driven back, and have just lost yet another fortress city. Recruitment is getting even worse, and I think the overall weariness is sinking in further. I'm not sure they can sustain 6 more months

The only big sway I can see, is direct foreign involvement. Which I dont think is achievable.


I want to be clear, to you and @Limbo Pete , that I do not in anyway support russia. But it doesn't benefit Ukraine to hold onto inaccurate concepts and propaganda


Edit for russian casualties*

 

[SakurabasEar]

regarding attrition, it's not just bodies, it's economics. Russia is harmed by all of this. Ukraine needs to create a sufficient deterrent, giving up 15 or 20% of their land for a 'peace' doesn't do much.

And Ukraine doesn't need to outlast Russia, just Putin, he's 71 and by many accounts not in amazing health. Maybe sticking out a few more years is all they need.

Outlast Putin, wait for the power vacuum fight in Russia, get stability, get in NATO, future is then secured.

Putin dying would change the game, but he doesn't seem sick to me. Of course we can't count out that they've given him boosters before appearances