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International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

Apparently Azov brigade refused to enter Avdiivka to cover the Ukrainian retreat as ordered, and only sent a few companies forward. Those companies quickly retreated after getting shelled, causing the situation to deteriorate for the defenders in the urban area.

Looks like this battle will be over start of next week.

The most pressing question for Ukraine is whether its soldiers can make it out of Avdiivka alive.

Probably the most grim assessment from a BBC news piece I've seen so far.
 
Apparently Azov brigade refused to enter Avdiivka to cover the Ukrainian retreat as ordered, and only sent a few companies forward. Those companies quickly retreated after getting shelled, causing the situation to deteriorate for the defenders in the urban area.

Looks like this battle will be over start of next week.



Probably the most grim assessment from a BBC news piece I've seen so far.

Theres currently footage on reddit from there and its not pretty to look at
 
Venezuela main problem is terrible administration. Even Iran is doing better. In some aspects North Korea is doing better.
About Russia, sure they are losing some but they are not crumbling due to the sanctions. It's not 1980 where the G7 detained 50% of the world gdp PPP. And where sanctions meant that all your industries would collapse due to a lack of spare parts.
Doesn't mean they're not that important either though

Russia was never going to instantly crumble due to sanctions or even crumble rapidly. They weren't in debt. The west froze a war chest worth 300 billion dollars. That was estimated to be less than half of Russian Reserves at the time. That's more money than every country in the world has donated to Ukraine combined so far. That money just doesn't disappear because sanctions. It's not something that magically goes away.

If Tesla and SpaceX suddenly stopped giving Elon any money he still has hundreds of billions. He has to do stupid shit like buy twitter and run that into the ground, then buy something else and run that into the ground and again and again and again.

This is the point I'm raising. MSM went oh Russia is going to collapse because they saw the massive reaction of the market and extrapolated that for the next few months because they don't know the basics of economies. If they knew efficient market hypothesis they would have known that the market would factor that into prices in an incredibly short period of time. If they knew basic things like Russia will pull out counter measures to limit the damage they wouldn't make such stupid statements.

None of that detracts from the reality that sanctions do massive harm and that without a reversal in attitude towards the west it'll be generational.

They're just reflective of the general ignorance of many MSM journalists who write about subjects they have less knowledge about than a first year tertiary educated student studying in the field does.

We're not even at the two year mark of this war and the really hurtful sanctions didn't get passed until many months after the war started because Europe couldn't pass them before securing their energy needs.



This is like the whole Ukraine counter offensive again where the MSM (and Ukraine tbh) built it all up only for the predictions to fall flat on their face because they can't factor in adaption. Or that there needs to be an adaption to the aforementioned adaption.

So we get another complete 180 as people repeat the same bold, assertions for the opposite perspective.

Ukraine is going to roll over Russia.... oh no they're not going to roll over Russia.... oh no Ukraine has no chance to beat Russia because they're running out of x,y,z.

Everyone goes from one extreme to the other. Sanctions are going to crush Russia.... oh no they're not going to crush Russia.... oh sanctions are not a big deal and have little effect.



Bold opinions without a trace of nuance everywhere.



You want to talk about sanctions and give Iran as you example in regards to the effectiveness of sanctions. OK, lets talk about the impact sanctions have on Iran.

Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves in the world.
Iran has a population of 88 Million people.

On the other side of the Persian Gulf there is the UAE.

With 9 million people
With half the oil of Iran
And a 30% larger GDP.
Nominal GDP per capita is over 10x of Iran


That's with 1/3rd as many sanctions. Sanctions aren't some magical bullet but long term the impact will be massive without a reversal from Russia.
 
Ukrainian military command officially announced they’re leaving Avdeevka

The problem is…it’s not easy to do anymore
 
Kyiv post so very tragic what is happening. Russia artillery is huge advantage. Europe alone cannot fill the gap. Debags on the Republican side are giving huge wins to Putler. Mike Johnson is a turd of the highest order costing a democratic country to fail.

"

Ukraine Withdraws From Position South of Embattled Avdiivka as Kremlin Infantry Advances​

Battles were in progress deeper inside the city. Reports disagreed on how much longer hard-pressed Ukrainian forces could hold out, but most reported a massive Russian firepower advantage"

Word is 30,000 artillery shells being used a day by Russia vs around 8,000 by Ukrainians as well as meat walls.
And as many as 50,000 troops came from all areas as the town was to be taken at all costs. Best to get out now and reduce losses as Russia was throwing the kitchen sink at the town as Putler needs it for his election propaganda. They have been trying since Oct to get this objective and the loses are off the charts but at least UKR learned something and have built strong defensive lines behind Avdiivka assuming the town could fall.
 



Read through the thread, this is who some of you viciously support
 
I will be on the right side of history.

LOL, no you wont.
You are ironically often wrong, uninformed hateful, a flat earther, Pro dictators and murderers. Only time right can be used about you is to describe your political affiliation as far out right. The far out "god sent me here" right.
 
LOL, no you wont.
You are ironically often wrong, uninformed hateful, a flat earther, Pro dictators and murderers. Only time right can be used about you is to describe your political affiliation as far out right. The far out "god sent me here" right.
Not sure how someone on the wrong side of the present expects to end up on the right side of history
 
Apparently Azov brigade refused to enter Avdiivka to cover the Ukrainian retreat as ordered, and only sent a few companies forward. Those companies quickly retreated after getting shelled, causing the situation to deteriorate for the defenders in the urban area.

Looks like this battle will be over start of next week.



Probably the most grim assessment from a BBC news piece I've seen so far.
I haven't participated in this thread much, but I'll stick to my assessment that our support should be directed to facilitating peace and supporting the wounded and homeless, along with others.

There's no winning strategy here. There is no happy ending
 



Read through the thread, this is who some of you viciously support


And you support the Nazis fighting on the Russian sides, there are plenty.
No, people do not support Azov or the Nazis fighting, people support Ukraine's right to defend it self against a invader, to make their own choices and to be a free country.

Here is a Nazi fighting for Russia and shown on one of Russias biggest TV channels. And called a hero.
 
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I haven't participated in this thread much, but I'll stick to my assessment that our support should be directed to facilitating peace and supporting the wounded and homeless, along with others.

There's no winning strategy here. There is no happy ending
There's no peace specifically because Putin wants a war, and he wants a war because he wants Ukraine and all their stuff. This thing wasn't caused by some disagreement where everyone has a point of view and we just gotta hash it out. This isn't something with a diplomatic cause or solution. Putin wants conquest. You don't facilitate peace by giving a mobster half of your stuff in the hopes he lets you keep the rest.
 
Doesn't mean they're not that important either though

Russia was never going to instantly crumble due to sanctions or even crumble rapidly. They weren't in debt. The west froze a war chest worth 300 billion dollars. That was estimated to be less than half of Russian Reserves at the time. That's more money than every country in the world has donated to Ukraine combined so far. That money just doesn't disappear because sanctions. It's not something that magically goes away.

If Tesla and SpaceX suddenly stopped giving Elon any money he still has hundreds of billions. He has to do stupid shit like buy twitter and run that into the ground, then buy something else and run that into the ground and again and again and again.

This is the point I'm raising. MSM went oh Russia is going to collapse because they saw the massive reaction of the market and extrapolated that for the next few months because they don't know the basics of economies. If they knew efficient market hypothesis they would have known that the market would factor that into prices in an incredibly short period of time. If they knew basic things like Russia will pull out counter measures to limit the damage they wouldn't make such stupid statements.

None of that detracts from the reality that sanctions do massive harm and that without a reversal in attitude towards the west it'll be generational.

They're just reflective of the general ignorance of many MSM journalists who write about subjects they have less knowledge about than a first year tertiary educated student studying in the field does.

We're not even at the two year mark of this war and the really hurtful sanctions didn't get passed until many months after the war started because Europe couldn't pass them before securing their energy needs.



This is like the whole Ukraine counter offensive again where the MSM (and Ukraine tbh) built it all up only for the predictions to fall flat on their face because they can't factor in adaption. Or that there needs to be an adaption to the aforementioned adaption.

So we get another complete 180 as people repeat the same bold, assertions for the opposite perspective.

Ukraine is going to roll over Russia.... oh no they're not going to roll over Russia.... oh no Ukraine has no chance to beat Russia because they're running out of x,y,z.

Everyone goes from one extreme to the other. Sanctions are going to crush Russia.... oh no they're not going to crush Russia.... oh sanctions are not a big deal and have little effect.



Bold opinions without a trace of nuance everywhere.



You want to talk about sanctions and give Iran as you example in regards to the effectiveness of sanctions. OK, lets talk about the impact sanctions have on Iran.

Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves in the world.
Iran has a population of 88 Million people.

On the other side of the Persian Gulf there is the UAE.

With 9 million people
With half the oil of Iran
And a 30% larger GDP.
Nominal GDP per capita is over 10x of Iran


That's with 1/3rd as many sanctions. Sanctions aren't some magical bullet but long term the impact will be massive without a reversal from Russia.
Sanctions prevents at least fresh foreign investments so countries like China, India and Brasil might get stuff that might go to Russia if this stupid war didn't had happened. BIC are happy of course.
 
And you support the Nazis fighting on the Russian sides, there are plenty.
No, people do not support Azov or the Nazis fighting, people support Ukraine's right to defend it self against a invader, to make their own choices and to be a free country.

Here is a Nazi fighting for Russia and shown on one of Russias biggest TV channels. And called a hero.
Russia is country ruled by Nazi in senile KGB director Putin...
Everyone who had justified and excused any Hitler's action is in reality Nazi....
Especially if he admitted that had paid money to neo Nazi in former leutenant colonel in Utkin.... who was former GRU leutenant colonel because he was too much neo Nazi even for Hitler ( Outinn )....
 
There's no peace specifically because Putin wants a war, and he wants a war because he wants Ukraine and all their stuff. This thing wasn't caused by some disagreement where everyone has a point of view and we just gotta hash it out. This isn't something with a diplomatic cause or solution. Putin wants conquest. You don't facilitate peace by giving a mobster half of your stuff in the hopes he lets you keep the rest.
Yes, you can actually facilitate peace in that way. There isnt another option, you have lost or are losing.

This isn't our decision, (if you're an American) this is a decision that Ukraine will have to make itself, and that we could help facilitate
 
Yes, you can actually facilitate peace in that way. There isnt another option, you have lost or are losing.

This isn't our decision, (if you're an American) this is a decision that Ukraine will have to make itself, and that we could help facilitate
It's not a facilitation of peace, it's a pause before the invasion continues. Remember, the actual invasion started in 2014. Putin isn't giving up, he has no regard for human life or decency. his own people are totally irrelevant outside their use in getting him what he wants. But you're right that the decision to fight is up to Ukraine, as it has and will continue to be. Of course, they understand that the opposing, eh, positions in this are Putin who wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a sovereign nation, and Ukraine who wants to still be a sovereign nation. I'm sure they understand quite acutely that any pause is a holding action for the next part of the fight.
 
There I don't trust even claims that some brigade might had been inserted in Avdiivka...I had posted month ago or even earlier that supply routes are under fire control.....
Unless they had build some tunnels....

Unfortunately for Ukraine looks that west in reality wants to see Putin to win this and Ukraine should loss areas annexed on paper by Putin cos west does want this in order to appease their comrade Putin.
Therefore supplies are done according to this scenario.

China too is happy: lesser ppl walking around : more oxygen to breath. Stalin.
And China is thinking that they does have historical rights to rule some areas in Siberia and Mongols IF will be chinesse puppets does have historical rights to rule part of russia.
Since russia often recruits manpower from siberia it is happiness for China.....lesser russian " speakers " in Siberia....
 
There I don't trust even claims that some brigade might had been inserted in Avdiivka...I had posted month ago or even earlier that supply routes are under fire control.....
Unless they had build some tunnels....

Unfortunately for Ukraine looks that west in reality wants to see Putin to win this and Ukraine should loss areas annexed on paper by Putin cos west does want this in order to appease their comrade Putin.
Therefore supplies are done according to this scenario.

China too is happy: lesser ppl walking around : more oxygen to breath. Stalin.
And China is thinking that they does have historical rights to rule some areas in Siberia and Mongols IF will be chinesse puppets does have historical rights to rule part of russia.
Since russia often recruits manpower from siberia it is happiness for China.....lesser russian " speakers " in Siberia....
The West doesn't want Putin to win, he just happens to have some friends in our Congress that are doing everything they can to keep us from helping. They are a minority overall, but unfortunately have control over a frustratingly significant portion of the process.
 
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