International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[curryjunkie]

@ViD will say something like "yeah this is all russian land anyways" <45>

now look what you've made me do!

 

[calavera2]

Nudelman resigning is fantastic news, given she and her dept were the most responsible in starting this war and the most aggressive in pursuing it to the bitter end once it started, so this looks (at least seemingly...) like the 'max war' faction in the US have finally yielded and the chances of a peace treaty/winding down of the conflict hugely increased, and nuclear apocalyse seems off the table for now (was getting a little worried after the last few days).

Phew!

meanwhile in reality..

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

They're up to a couple hundred now.

Imagine if they took out as many Abrams as UKR has taken out ships and jet… now that would be propaganda esk.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

meanwhile in reality..

What an idiot for doing that. Just proves to the world how insane Russia is and they need to be fixed.

 

[SandisLL]

I don't think this is a Republican thing or a Mike Johnson thing. I think the ask was big on purpose by the Biden administration, in order to give a plausible reason for the Rs to hold it up. I think it is a bipartisan attempt to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war.

Maybe, however this will mean that Ukr should agree on all Putin's demands. This will gave big tool for Russian propaganda that they had won vs U.S and U.K and NATO...
Iran and North Korea, Housites and HAMAS, Hesbollah and remainings from Al Quada will be encouraged to be more aggressive, their fear from U.S and U.K will be dramatically reduced. Russia will have more time to think how to help their friends in Iran and North Korea.
Most likely HAMAS, Housithes and Hezbollah will get more support than they are getting today and all stuff will be " nice " " fun " for U.S... .really ....

And Ukraine can't end war. Only Putin might end war.
And yeah, if free speech allows clown to tell his Dreams that West is good partner....while refused to sell for money any heavy weapons 1992-2021 th then really mental clinic level....

☆ historically NATO countries & candidate countries always had used one certain signal Mark for possible acceptable future member: had sold or even donated some heavy weapons....Ukr didn't get this signal and still had dreamers...
☆ EU is using clear signal : if they wants to accept country they are inviting your ruler in EU Summit ....to attend yearly most important session in person.
Zelensky still didn't get reality?
Candidate status Albania does have 9 years ! and to accept Albania for EU looks 100x lesser burden than to accept Ukraine....

 

[Xuh]

meanwhile in reality..

Yes, the war will have to end eventually and with the USA seemingly giving up its maximalist aims (regime change in Russia) with Nudelman's resignation that will likely mean a partition of Ukraine, possibly with some European states taking parts into their 'care'. That's actually quite a good solution - the western parts will benefit strongly from being in the EU, and the eastern parts will be better off as well.

Just like America, Russia has war maximalists and minimalists so what that partition looks like will depend on which faction wins out in the internal squabbles. Medvedev and his map show what maxi's aims might look like; Putin though seems rather minimalist-inclined given his behaviour to date (he didn't even want Donbass, judging by Russia's course after the Minsk treaties and the treaty offered after the invasion which the US had to block because the Ukes were gonna sign it and they weren't gonna get the war they worked so hard for so long to create).

It's ironic - I remember during Medvedev's presidency (2008-2012), some of my pro-Russia friends were deeply concerned he was some kind of western liberast sleeper agent; but this conflict has transformed him into an uber-vatnik

 

[SandisLL]

Yes, the war will have to end eventually and with the USA seemingly giving up its maximalist aims (regime change in Russia) with Nudelman's resignation that will likely mean a partition of Ukraine, possibly with some European states taking parts into their 'care'. That's actually quite a good solution - the western parts will benefit strongly from being in the EU, and the eastern parts will be better off as well.

Just like America, Russia has war maximalists and minimalists so what that partition looks like will depend on which faction wins out in the internal squabbles. Medvedev and his map show what maxi's aims might look like; Putin though seems rather minimalist-inclined given his behaviour to date (he didn't even want Donbass, judging by Russia's course after the Minsk treaties and the treaty offered after the invasion which the US had to block because the Ukes were gonna sign it and they weren't gonna get the war they worked so hard for so long to create).

It's ironic - I remember during Medvedev's presidency (2008-2012), some of my pro-Russia friends were deeply concerned he was some kind of western liberast sleeper agent; but this conflict has transformed him into an uber-vatnik

Looks that you don't know Orban, Fico and european geo political kitchen.
" remaining part of Ukraine " will not be in EU ....at least when Fico and Orban are alive.
Also in a lot of other countries are big concerns about € Ukr will demand for reconstruction and especially subsidies for agriculture they will demand. Additionally concerns about immigration and reality that Ukraine is filled with lucrative commodity for Black market : revolvers, pistols, hand grenades and mines, grenade launchers and assault rifles, submachine guns and sniper rifles....

Also elections in a lot of countries will be relatively soon and .....to accept country in EU ALL EU countries should agree....

If Ukr propagandists and dreamers doesn't knows these simple facts it isn't my problem.

 

[SandisLL]

Why they didn't demanded Donbas initially....
The same scenario as why Transistria and these " Separatists " regions in Georgia does exist.
Additionally Shoigu told that he is responsible to report only Russian military losses and not LPR and DPR losses and wagnerites and other PMCs losses. ..

It is proxy....

The same with Iran. They aren't dumb engage with West directly....while there surprisingly appears housithes and HAMAS....

China needs trade with East and West while hates Russia and West and there at least is North Korea to bully West....

 

[SandisLL]

China is real threat for Russia and only delusional ppl doesn't see reasons for hate and soft annexion of Russia they slowly are doing.
Common aim for Russia and China today is to press West while ....
China is thinking that part of Russian territories is their historical property they were forced to cede Russia in 1800 ies....
To turn Siberia in Chinatown without war is helping Mr Putin...
Because recruiting for small special operation is mainly done in remote areas....businesses needs to replace this workforce and not mandatory with so called Russian speakers....
Also russia's hate vs West helps China to subjugate Russia financially and in business field.
China also hates Russia a lot because USSR had used them to threat West, in war in Korea etc and in the same time when they didn't needed them....then they cut off support etc...multiple times in row....
Chinesse does have very good memory and might use a lot of soft methods in order to get their goals....even if slowly during decades....
How smart are chinesse is difficult to understand....

 

[calavera2]

Yes, the war will have to end eventually and with the USA seemingly giving up its maximalist aims (regime change in Russia) with Nudelman's resignation that will likely mean a partition of Ukraine, possibly with some European states taking parts into their 'care'. That's actually quite a good solution - the western parts will benefit strongly from being in the EU, and the eastern parts will be better off as well.

Just like America, Russia has war maximalists and minimalists so what that partition looks like will depend on which faction wins out in the internal squabbles. Medvedev and his map show what maxi's aims might look like; Putin though seems rather minimalist-inclined given his behaviour to date (he didn't even want Donbass, judging by Russia's course after the Minsk treaties and the treaty offered after the invasion which the US had to block because the Ukes were gonna sign it and they weren't gonna get the war they worked so hard for so long to create).

It's ironic - I remember during Medvedev's presidency (2008-2012), some of my pro-Russia friends were deeply concerned he was some kind of western liberast sleeper agent; but this conflict has transformed him into an uber-vatnik

Pure nonsense, the Russians have been explicit in what their aims were and are since the beginning. They have been clear from Putin on down to their propaganda arms. Your fantasies and Russian propaganda talking points don't work in the face of reality. They literally come out and state their position and your take away from all that is "but the US created this war" fuck off.

 

[GhostZ06]

Russia Can Lob 100 Glide-Bombs A Day. Ukraine Can Lob Just A Few.

The Ukrainians aren’t dropping nearly enough glide-bombs. And they never will as long as the United States continues sitting out Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

One more area that Russia is enjoying a lopsided advantage.

compared to Western standard guided bombs... these things kinda suck...

 

[Strychnine]

 

[curryjunkie]

Yes, the war will have to end eventually and with the USA seemingly giving up its maximalist aims (regime change in Russia) with Nudelman's resignation that will likely mean a partition of Ukraine, possibly with some European states taking parts into their 'care'. That's actually quite a good solution - the western parts will benefit strongly from being in the EU, and the eastern parts will be better off as well.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Yes, the war will have to end eventually and with the USA seemingly giving up its maximalist aims (regime change in Russia) with Nudelman's resignation that will likely mean a partition of Ukraine, possibly with some European states taking parts into their 'care'. That's actually quite a good solution - the western parts will benefit strongly from being in the EU, and the eastern parts will be better off as well.

Just like America, Russia has war maximalists and minimalists so what that partition looks like will depend on which faction wins out in the internal squabbles. Medvedev and his map show what maxi's aims might look like; Putin though seems rather minimalist-inclined given his behaviour to date (he didn't even want Donbass, judging by Russia's course after the Minsk treaties and the treaty offered after the invasion which the US had to block because the Ukes were gonna sign it and they weren't gonna get the war they worked so hard for so long to create).

It's ironic - I remember during Medvedev's presidency (2008-2012), some of my pro-Russia friends were deeply concerned he was some kind of western liberast sleeper agent; but this conflict has transformed him into an uber-vatnik

Nobody in the history of anything has ever been better off as part of Russia lmao
Ukraine fighting literally tooth and nail to keep from being occupied by Russia because they know exactly what it will entail, but internet chuds: "They'll be better off".

 

[Orgasmo]

compared to Western standard guided bombs... these things kinda suck...

They're no SDB or JDAM, but they can still inflict massive damage with reasonable accuracy. FAB500 has a damage radius of 250 meters against soft targets, meaning likely a kill radius of 50 meters.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2023

Russian officials announced that Russian law enforcement suppressed the antisemitic riots in Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan on October 30. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) stated that employees of the MVD and other law enforcement agencies suppressed mass riots in Makhachkala...

understandingwar.org

Su-34 generally drop 4 of these at a time, and each is capable of obliterating a fortified fighting position. They're dropping at least 50 a day along the frontlines.

 

[Xuh]

Pure nonsense, the Russians have been explicit in what their aims were and are since the beginning. They have been clear from Putin on down to their propaganda arms. Your fantasies and Russian propaganda talking points don't work in the face of reality. They literally come out and state their position and your take away from all that is "but the US created this war" fuck off.

You're right they've been explicit in their aims from the beginning - keeping NATO out of Ukraine. They said there were red lines, USA crossed them. They said there were 'brightest red lines', USA crossed them too. Putin still tried to dodge conflict with the Minsk accords, they didn't work (Fra/Ger leaders now openly said they were 'just an excuse to buy time').

The easiest way for you to get it might be that shortly after the invasion, Putin again offered a peace treaty (amongst other things, which would keep Donbass in Ukraine). The Ukranians were ready to accept the treaty.
But the Americans blocked it. If America wanted peace, why would they block a peace treaty that the Ukrainians were willing to accept? - because they wanted the war. It really is that simple. What other reason?

Now it's clear they can't destabilise/cause regime change in Russia via this route any more, Nudelman has resigned and USA is going to throw Ukraine away. Expect an increase in anti-China articles to start taking its place.

 

[Orgasmo]

Last 24 hours:

- Russians started advancing slowly in the Avdiivka direction again after being blunted by Ukrainian reinforcements.
- 3rd confirmed M1 Abrams loss from ATGM (first 2 due to FPV drones)
- Ukraine sank a Russian corvette using naval drones in Crimean waters.
- First visually confirmed loss of HIMARS launcher

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

They're no SDB or JDAM, but they can still inflict massive damage with reasonable accuracy. FAB500 has a damage radius of 250 meters against soft targets, meaning likely a kill radius of 50 meters.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2023

Russian officials announced that Russian law enforcement suppressed the antisemitic riots in Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan on October 30. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) stated that employees of the MVD and other law enforcement agencies suppressed mass riots in Makhachkala...

understandingwar.org

Su-34 generally drop 4 of these at a time, and each is capable of obliterating a fortified fighting position. They're dropping at least 50 a day along the frontlines.

They were, but after losing at least a dozen planes in 2 weeks they have pulled back a bit. I did read it was the pilots who refused the missions as Putin considers his pilots and jets expendable as long as he can make a few km in land gains.

 

[Orgasmo]

They were, but after losing at least a dozen planes in 2 weeks they have pulled back a bit. I did read it was the pilots who refused the missions as Putin considers his pilots and jets expendable as long as he can make a few km in land gains.

There has been no visual confirmation of losses in the past 2 weeks other than Ukrainian claims. Also Telegram channels did not report reduction in intensity of bombings despite claims of shot downs.

 

[Cid]

HIMARS Vid.

Looks to be Iskander. I wonder how many missiles were launched. Just one with a 65% chance of hitting the desired target seems risky. But no one uploads all the misses. Valuable propaganda to finally hit one.