International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[SandisLL]

Trump seems to be doing a U-turn on giving military aid now. You think there's any chance Ukraine with the help of the EU and the US regain some land back?

Don't know...
One thing is clear: quitin and Co wants to continue war...
Trump wants ceasefire...

Now if they will supply and sell(!) ukr more toys and quickly...then maybe qyitin will agree for long term ceasefire.

Depends ofc from ammount of " toys " etc ukr will get.

Because putin is hiring guys for $ and if there will be more mines and cluster ammo, most likely will be more difficult to hire next guys...Putin then will increase bonuses offered, then again and again.

Maybe after some months he will agree for long term ceasefire.

 

[SandisLL]

9 th May kremlin parade:
Excepted that Lukashenko, North Korea Kim and Fico & Orban will attend parade.
Maybe Iran's officials and Taliban too will be ....
Dunno HAMAS and Housithes will attend parade?

 

[Strychnine]

I don't think that Trump will be attending the May 9th parade in Moscow.

 

[San Marino]

ISW, 03 May 2025.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Ukraine would concede to the vague terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire proposal.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin's commitment to maintaining the tempo of offensive operations despite diminishing returns underscores Putin's ongoing efforts to leverage further battlefield gains to generate pressure on Ukraine in ceasefire and peace negotiations or otherwise to force Ukraine's collapse.
• A future slowing of Russian offensive operations and/or transition to defensive operations in all or part of the theater would be indicators that Putin is shifting his short-term goals from seizing more territory to consolidating previously held territory.
• Statements by US officials suggest that the Trump administration is considering stepping back from intensified mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

 

[San Marino]

I don't think that Trump will be attending the May 9th parade in Moscow.

Is Vance going in his place? Maybe Kamala Harris representing the US?
Zelensky will be in attendance to represent all the Ukrainians who died in service to the Soviet Union in WWII.
It will give Putin and Zelensky time to talk over dinner.
Soviets lost 20 soldiers for every 1 American dead in that conflict.

 

[Strychnine]

Is Vance going in his place? Maybe Kamala Harris representing the US?
Zelensky will be in attendance to represent all the Ukrainians who died in service to the Soviet Union in WWII.
It will give Putin and Zelensky time to talk over dinner.
Soviets lost 20 soldiers for every 1 American dead in that conflict.

"The war must be felt from where it came from."

- Pres. Zelenskyy

There's a LOT of people "falling ill" and are now cancelling the trip to Moscow.

 

[brothir]

Russia has no aspirations of taking over Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Belarus.

Well, Finland would've stomped a Russian invasion, and Belarus is already Putin's lackey.

 

[brothir]

I thought you said Russia would win handily in 6 months.

Pretty sure I've seen repeated claims that Russia would win in X months for the past 3 years. It's a goalpost that's been moved so repeatedly they've installed wheels on it.

 

[SandisLL]

Well, Finland would've stomped a Russian invasion, and Belarus is already Putin's lackey.

Belarus is supporting Russia's special operation by providing medicaments, medical services in their hospitals, providing high quality fuel and lubricants, refubrishing and repairing radioelectronic equipment, provoding lethal aid in form from tanks till ammuniton.
Their MIC also offers to refubrish Grad missiles produced in USSR era and refubrish and upgrade radars produced in USSR era.

Russia is getting such aid ...
In 2022 th Lukashenko and their PM had conformed in open texts weapons supplies ....

& they also does have large stockpiles of ammo produced 1955-1992 th...in USSR era.
Ofc there is question about % of this possible to " refubrish "...and usable % of all this.

_<
Belarus does have low number of pro soldiers and looks that Lukashenko is keeping these most loyal in Minsk etc close area, the same about police officers and KGB specialists.

Therefore they doesn't use regular forces against Ukr.
Instead of this all these supplies etc mentoned above.

 

[San Marino]

Pretty sure I've seen repeated claims that Russia would win in X months for the past 3 years. It's a goalpost that's been moved so repeatedly they've installed wheels on it.

Define a win.
No, it is not taking over all of Ukraine. At least not yet anyway. 'Novorossiya,' (New Russia) that is the Russian goal. Eastern Ukraine. Russia has acquired and kept 20% of Ukraine for 3 years now. 5 oblats (states). Ukraine has not been able to recover even 1% of it in 3 years. Russia needs 4 more oblats to accomplish its goal. 50% of Ukraine. Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv.

Russia is not only fighting Ukrainian military stockpile, but also, military weaponry from Europe and the US. Without US and European military help, Ukraine would have folded in 6 months or less. If that help stops in a week, Ukraine will fold in a week. Military aid is what is keeping Ukraine from losing this conflict. Men, Ukraine cannot replace by Europe or the US. This will eventually be the reason Ukraine will lose this conflict. Look at what happened during the American Civil War and why the Confederacy (South) lost the conflict after 4 years of war.

* By the way, I visited your country many years ago - Norway. Beautiful!

 

[SandisLL]

Define a win.
No, it is not taking over all of Ukraine. At least not yet anyway. 'Novorossiya,' (New Russia) that is the Russian goal. Eastern Ukraine. Russia has acquired and kept 20% of Ukraine for 3 years now. 5 oblats (states). Ukraine has not been able to recover even 1% of it in 3 years. Russia needs 4 more oblats to accomplish its goal. 50% of Ukraine. Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv.

Russia is not only fighting Ukrainian military stockpile, but also, military weaponry from Europe and the US. Without US and European military help, Ukraine would have folded in 6 months or less. If that help stops in a week, Ukraine will fold in a week. Military aid is what is keeping Ukraine from losing this conflict. Men, Ukraine cannot replace by Europe or the US. This will eventually be the reason Ukraine will lose this conflict. Look at what happened during the American Civil War and why the Confederacy (South) lost the conflict after 4 years of war.

* By the way, I visited your country many years ago - Norway. Beautiful!

West never will allow Russia to loss this war. I had posted this in 2022 th.

And comrade, now payment is lesser than in 2008 th for post for progo farm trolls.
West loves russia a lot.

All supplies always too little and too small, definitely keep your propaganda about fighting vs bad west for annoying troll posts in russian for russian speakers ... for russian world.

We all do know that west had sold part of Ukraine for Russia de facto ... under the table. BTW long before even Obama took office...

Why not. Business and nothing personal.

In this case ofc ...appeared that something you had bought under table you still will purchase with blood.
Win or loose you will pay with blood. Therefore you aren't in deNazification small operation but in puffy cubicle.

If you are dreaming about deUkrainization : nor your matushka nor Hitler were not able even to deal with gypsies comrade.

Country is entity for elite to earn for a living ....
This one.

God is Great and doesn't have borders. Sooner or later you will start to feel reality about your life and will talk with him. As chatbot operator ofc no. You will pray and cry, think about your life ....and negotiate attempts will be " fun " not in puffy cubicle....
God does have long tables.

 

[SandisLL]

Serbia Vuchic had been invited to attend parade in Moscow.
His office told that he now does have some health problems.

Ofc if you attempt to sit on 3 chairs with 1 arse then heart function might get some problems. Will see.

 

[Cid]

 

[Cid]

Two Russian Su-30 Flankers Downed By AIM-9s Fired From Drone Boats: Ukrainian Intel Boss

The event marks the first time drone boats downed fighters and the first successful use of AIM-9 missiles to take down any aircraft via drone boat.

www.twz.com

 

[PEB]

 

[Badr Hari]

Serbia Vuchic had been invited to attend parade in Moscow.
His office told that he now does have some health problems.

Ofc if you attempt to sit on 3 chairs with 1 arse then heart function might get some problems. Will see.

Exactly. He is smart for finding out about health problems one week before the parade and knowing beforehand that he won't get better in a week time. Interestingly and 'completely randomly' Slovakia's Fico found out similar health troubles on the same day and has canceled parade participation.

 

[Badr Hari]

Latest Ruski Telegram update:

The enemy boasts that he destroyed another aircraft allegedly in Crimea. The first was a Su-30 lost after the enemy successfully used a naval unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with missile weapons.

Even without this fact, three sad moments can be noted, which indicate, to put it mildly, problems in our military organization in the fourth year of the Special Military Operation:

1. The enemy seized the initiative in the Black Sea waters.

2. The Black Sea Fleet, after the loss of the flagship and a number of ships, has still not been restored in terms of combat capability. The fleet (what remains) is huddled in harbors and bays.

3. The enemy has an overwhelming advantage in the use of unmanned boats (UAVs) with the ability to attack in any part of the waters and keep the coast of the Russian Federation with adjacent airspace under control.

After the games with the "grain corridors", the enemy has increased the initiative many times over and is not going to give up its actions. Crimea and Sevastopol are holding the line. To change the situation, the enemy needs to be defeated, and not just fought back on land and in the air with the means on duty.

Roughly speaking, Russia needs new victories so that in the future its "allies" do not refuse to participate in parades due to illness.

 

[Badr Hari]

Indian military experts have calculated that in the event of a full-scale war, the Pakistani army will face a growing shortage of shells in just four days.

It is alleged that the ammunition shortage was a consequence of deliveries to Ukraine that Islamabad has been carrying out since at least the end of 2022.

In particular, according to New Delhi, in February 2023, 10,000 shells for the Grad MLRS were sent along the Karachi-Germany-Ukraine route. In the following months, Pakistan also transferred a large batch of 155-mm shells to Ukraine. In April 2023 alone, about 230 containers of weapons were sent to Ukraine via the same Karachi.

After some of the information became publicly available, Islamabad, not wanting to quarrel with Moscow, carried out a large-scale campaign to disguise further deliveries as civilian cargo, involving American and European ships. However, the flow itself did not stop.

In this case, for Pakistan, it is not so much politics as "business and nothing personal." Considering that the economic situation in the country is consistently worsening, and there is no way out of the crisis in sight, Islamabad is happy with any opportunity to replenish its foreign exchange reserves. Especially when all this is generously paid for by the West.

 

[Badr Hari]

France increases supplies of long-range bombs to Ukraine

French company Safran Electronics and Defense announced an increase in the production rate of AASM Hammer aerial bombs by 45% compared to 2024. In 2025, it is planned to produce 1,200 bombs, most of which will be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the moment, about 50 French AASMs are transferred to Ukraine monthly.

AASM (Armement Air-Sol Modulaire) is a high-precision aviation weapon of French production, developed by Safran. It turns ordinary aerial bombs into "smart" munitions capable of hitting targets with high accuracy in conditions of electronic suppression. Something like the UMPK, widely used by the Russian Army.

How does AASM work?

An inertial-satellite guidance unit is installed in the front part of the bomb.
A solid-fuel booster is added to the rear part to increase the range.
Uses gyroscopes and accelerometers to calculate the position of the bomb in space without GPS.
Autonomously corrects the trajectory, focusing on the target coordinates.

AASM performance characteristics:

Range: up to 70 km under ideal launch conditions (which are almost impossible to achieve in air defense zones).
Can be dropped from any altitude (from 150 m to 15 km).
Destroys moving targets and fortified objects.
Power: compatible with bombs weighing 250–1000 kg.
Accuracy: circular error probable (CEP) — less than 10 meters.
Guidance: inertial + GPS (optional).

In recent months, there has been a steady trend towards expanding European participation in ensuring arms supplies to Ukraine. It took French specialists several months to adapt the AASM to the Soviet aviation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (MiG-29, Su-27, Su-25). Ukraine can also use these bombs from French Mirages, including in the Black Sea.

 

[San Marino]

West never will allow Russia to lose this war.

Russia does not need the West's help to win it. The Ukrainian Army is shrinking by the month.

God is great and doesn't have borders. Sooner or later, you will start to feel reality about your life and will talk with him.

Not sure what this has to do with the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
...and there is no God. Santa Claus for adults.