International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

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Ukrainian forces just advanced past the second line onto the edges of Verbove. That's significant.

Although they'll definitely run out of soldiers before they take the town and Russia will use a tactical nuke. Some expert told me.


Did Ukraine finally do a giant paradrop into the minefields like our logistics dude told them to?
Reminds me of the civil war.
 
I think Russia is going to lose this war of attrition with the west much sooner than the rest of the world loses resolve. Even Germany has earmarked funds out to 2027.

I think the political situation inside Russia won't allow for another mass conscription beyond the regular annual rotation. The initial waves of conscripts were mostly for the far east, not "true" Russians, so everyone is okay with it. Even the annual rotation is likely to cause a bit more unrest than usual as these guys will all know they're going to the front and not just on some training exercises. The troops Russia has in Ukraine are all they're going to get anytime soon. Russia's own budget has more money for internal security than the entire military so it's kind of telling where their priorities actually lie. I think they're concerned about repercussion of another large conscription wave both for the economy and unrest because why wouldn't they just call up more men sooner?

I don't think they have the production to keep it up, either in scale or the technical expertise. Brain drain since 2014 when sanctions first started and massive exodus of manpower during the first wave of conscription out of the country, and of course huge sanctions. Which even if they're able to circumvent, it's through much longer logistics networks that extend production times. They're just as unprepared for a long duration high intensity conflict as the west. The west diverted their production to consumer goods and Russia turned into a gas station with a coal mine. They have Soviet stockpiles and a rather ordinary amount of arms productions when compared to everyone else. That's why they're begging their neighbors for more military aid and leaning on their stockpiles while they try to reorganize production.
There ofc is thing called Realpolitik and public opinion.

I will explain in details without mentioning country name....
There will be long posts and for a reason. In details.
It isn't fun for Ukraine btw.
 
1. Public in my area in general does support military assistance to Ukr however will go MAD if president and MoD & Parliament will allow to deplete wartime stockpile.

This means # 1. we are willing to pay for ammo if we can get and if replacement to replace stufff we might sent to Ukr is already delivered ( not promised ) MoD and president then will sign export permit. Only with approwal from NATO.
Arestovich might not dream about illusions, we will not remowe autocannons from NATO airfield or large civilian airport without replacement.
 
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Next stuff, we are NATO ammunition supplier and for example for 12,7x99 mm ammo main clients are U.K and U.S. Contract is contract and producer is private business.
 
Then about other kind of assistance.
1. Public in general doesn't support warrant letters to warrant loans for Ukr while not likely wants to block EU collective assistance.
It is more about WB and EBRD loans.
Public doesn't want to pay Ukr debt for such deals by signing warrant letters in case IF Ukraine will declare State Treasury Default....
It will be our taxpayers money to be used in such case.
 


Hopefully Ukraine sees the bigger picture with their spat with Poland and others in regard to the grain. Completely unnecessary bickering among friends.

It isn't unnecessary.
Polish farmers are employing also ukrainian workforce and grain stuff in reality is this:
1. Poland does allows grain transit without transit fees and EU quality cert.
It is called technical grain.
So if someone is selling grain imported for transit ....in Poland then shit is very big.
In Poland when collective layoffs are done is taken in account how long time you had worked in company too...besides other criteria and if some bunches with ukrainians will get unemployed cos such stuff, I hope that Zelensky personnaly will pay them unemployment benefits from his own pockets.
 
Poland is first country in western world sent to Ukr self propelled howitzers and ammo without loud talking. First country providing Ukr with main battle tanks.

In one episode Ukr had called one armoured jeep donated by polish taxpayers as..." Banderomobile ".:(:(:(.
 
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Latvian border guard and national guard together with custom service and regular military is conducting peaceful " regular " training " exercises. Lukashenko might be happy that they are like cliff and even doesn't react about their crying from Minsk.
It is a more than division size force for regular friendly and peaceful exercises.
Lukashenko regime while looks that had maintained control in official border points according to agreements, doesn't have interest to control other areas in borderline....
Approx 8000+ illegal border crossing attempts done by person or group of persons had been prevented in 2023 th.

Firearms will be used if there will be necessity to deNazify terrorists.
 

Thanks. Good video. Proves my point. Nothing much I didn't already know.
I would question some of his numbers and also the fact that Ukraine being on the offensive will lose more soldiers than Russia.
From 6:03 on he touches on two good topics: Experience and training. Loss of experienced soldiers being replaced by poorly trained soldiers which in turn will lead to more casualties for Ukraine.
 
Mr Zelensky should remember that Poland aren't Kurds N2.
" Poland's taxpayers interest, regardless from their nationality and citizenship in Poland should be protected and anyone thinking that we are below Ukriane should re learn reality ".
 
I'll do a TLDR just for you;
-Ukraine air defense shot a missile at a Russian target (the guys that have been bombing Ukraine for 1.5 years now).
-Missile malfunctioned, crashed into the market.
Oh, okay. So first it was the Russians (blame the Russians), now it is the missile itself that malfunctioned (blame the missile). The fact that the Ukrainians fucked up on the target coordinates will never surface now, will it? Ukrainian soldiers never make mistakes unlike their Russian counterpart. Yes. I did read the article.
 
Do you even read the articles that people post here?
Seems like you just read a title and are left stunned and full of questions time and time again.
*sigh*
I'll do a TLDR just for you;
-Ukraine air defense shot a missile at a Russian target (the guys that have been bombing Ukraine for 1.5 years now).
-Missile malfunctioned, crashed into the market.

It does make a great case for providing them with more aid tho, since Russia is lobbig drones/missiles at them daily, they are forced to defend themselves with the old Soviet air defense systems they have.
If we provided them with more modern equipment there'd be alot less failures like this.
I hope Biden (your commander in chief) provides them with it.

Is this regarding the anti-ukraine dude's "investigation" into that missile strike on the market? The same "journalist" who claims Ukraine is selling all its western tanks and artillery to other countries? Lmao
 
You don't want Ukraine to win, but not because you hate Ukrainians; no, you want them to lose their country and who knows how many lives because you view the whole thing as an extension of American partisan politics. The Ukrainians are the "liberals" in your weird twisted partisan mindscape, and god be damned if you can tolerate ol Sleepy Joe getting a W of any kind.
Limbo has gone woke!
No, that is not how I view things. It would be nice if Ukraine was able to expel the Russians from their country. I never did favor the invasion. I've been looking at the conflict for 19 months now and trying to get a true picture of what is going on on the ground -- the military conflict. It is not easy since there is so much bias towards Ukraine. I read an article earlier saying that Ukraine had already taken back 54% of loss territory. I checked with the current ISW information, and it does not say anything about that. A bullshit article. There has not really been much change to the map in 10 months. Russia is still holding roughly 18% of the country. 94% of what it originally captured.
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