International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

[AWilder]

https://twitter.com/Bodbe6/status/1704145150685974620?s=20

https://x.com/Bodbe6/status/1704145150685974620?s=20

that's a hell of a perspective

 

[Strychnine]

 

[San Marino]

Wow you literally took what I said, reworded it and then said it back to me. That's an impressive level of delusion. I bet you even thought that was clever.

No, I am merely saying you are guilty of the same thing you are accusing me of.

 

[San Marino]

@San Marino - Dude stop polluting the thread with your incessant arguing. You're on some pre-school level bullshit. We're not your therapy session.

Have you tried the ignore button? Are you smart enough to find it, or do you need my help?
Who is we?
Have you thought of maybe leaving this thread and posting your BS in another thread?
It would give all of us a much-deserved brake.
Just a proud member of the Peanut Gallery, aren't you?
You just have to impress your little friends with your not so bright comments. Got to get those 'likes.'

 

[San Marino]

You claimed that Ukraine would lose in 12 months that Ukrainians won round 1 (first month) but Russia would outlast Ukraine.

I said Ukraine would lose in about 12 months if their Army kept shrinking and few replacements were added.
Which is exactly what is happening as we speak.
Yes, I believe Russia will outlast Ukraine in this conflict.
I think the media is one sided and only covers Ukrainian battle victories and Russian losses.
I would like to see reports of Russian victories and Ukrainian losses to get a true idea of what is going on on the ground.
Russia is still advancing into Ukraine and Ukraine is losing a shit ton of soldiers on frontal assaults of defensive positions.
This map has changed very little in the past few weeks - the death toll for Ukraine is not worth the amount of land they have gained back:
* Look at the kilometer scale - 1 kilometer = 0.62 miles.

 

[San Marino]

Yes, your response was a joke.

Of course, you are going to say that. You have to save face in front of your little friends.
No, my response was spot on. It was not what you wanted to hear. Doesn't that suck when it happens?

Its clear as day for the grown ups in the room.

I know. Thank you! I'm one of the few.

You are a waste of time.

...and yet you keep writing back to me.

 

[San Marino]

Looks like the missile that hit the market might indeed have been an (accidental) Ukrainian one.

Well, that is not good now is it? I thought those Ukrainian boys did not make mistakes like the Russians.
Was it a mistake or was Ukraine trying to blame Russia for the missile attack? Generate some propaganda so they can get more money from the west. Who revealed the truth? How did this story come out? Was it The New York Times?

 

[Hog-train]

Have you tried the ignore button? Are you smart enough to find it, or do you need my help?
Who is we?
Have you thought of maybe leaving this thread and posting your BS in another thread?
It would give all of us a much-deserved brake.
Just a proud member of the Peanut Gallery, aren't you?
You just have to impress your little friends with your not so bright comments. Got to get those 'likes.'

I tried to do ignore. But then all I get is pages and pages of people replying to your bullshit and nothing makes sense.

Let's stick to the topic of the thread now. Tired of all this stupid off topic bullshit. I come to this thread to get updates on what's happening in this war - not to listen to you bicker with every other poster.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I said Ukraine would lose in about 12 months if their Army kept shrinking and few replacements were added.
Which is exactly what is happening as we speak.

It's been more than 12 months bro
and I know in your weird poisonous contrarian head Ukrainians making gains, penetrating defensive lines, and securing villages = losing, but back here in the real world it's the opposite.

Edit: and nobody is forcing you to somehow hold water for Russia lol. You aren't being egalitarian or fair and balanced by spending time waving their flag around. You say these things and do these things because they are what you think and feel. You don't want Ukraine to win, but not because you hate Ukrainians; no, you want them to lose their country and who knows how many lives because you view the whole thing as an extension of American partisan politics. The Ukrainians are the "liberals" in your weird twisted partisan mindscape, and god be damned if you can tolerate ol Sleepy Joe getting a W of any kind. Of course that's all nonsense, but that's never stopped anyone from making an ass out of themselves.

 

[SandisLL]

I tried to do ignore. But then all I get is pages and pages of people replying to your bullshit and nothing makes sense.

Let's stick to the topic of the thread now. Tired of all this stupid off topic bullshit. I come to this thread to get updates on what's happening in this war - not to listen to you bicker with every other poster.

Basically it had been proved during 500+ days is that all we are able is to do is to use Ignore list.
He is reporting our posts, endlessly writing PMs to mods etc.

Ignore and that's it.

 

[Strychnine]

Stick to the topic at hand please and leave the name calling out of it. If you can't do that, then take a break. There's good information in these threads, let's keep it that way no matter which side you advocate for in this horrible war.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Shutdown threatens Ukraine training, weapons deliveries
Funding for the shipments of weapons from DOD’s stockpiles would continue.

By LARA SELIGMAN
09/19/2023 11:10 AM EDT
The government shutdown looming in two weeks if lawmakers fail to reach a deal could halt shipments of critical weapons and U.S. military training of Ukrainian forces, even as the fighting intensifies in the country’s southeast, according to a Pentagon spokesperson.

Wide-ranging furloughs and the Defense Department’s suspension of nonessential activities expected under a shutdown could interrupt the “delivery of defense articles, services and/or military education and training” for Ukraine, DOD spokesperson Chris Sherwood said in an emailed statement.


If the government shuts down, military activities typically stop unless they are deemed crucial to national security. During the 2018 shutdown, for example, U.S. forces continued to hunt terrorists in the Middle East, but training for tens of thousands of National Guard and reserve troops was canceled.

U.S. officials expect a similar situation this year if government appropriations lapse without a new spending agreement in place by the end of the month.

Military training and exercises “required to achieve and maintain operational readiness and to prepare for and carry out such operations” will be exempted, according to guidance issued by the Pentagon last week for the potential shutdown. The Defense Secretary could designate certain activities as essential to national security, according to the guidance.

If the Ukraine training programs are not exempted, they would be forced to grind to a stop. U.S. and western military training has been key to Ukraine’s progress so far in the war; As of Aug. 31, international forces had trained more than 73,000 Ukrainians on Western weapons and tactics, according to DOD spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell. American soldiers are currently training approximately 200 Ukrainians to operate and maintain the U.S. Army’s M1 Abrams tank in Germany ahead of its expected arrival on the battlefield this month.

A shutdown could also delay training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, which is slated to begin at a U.S. military base in the coming weeks, Sherwood said.

There is some good news for Ukraine: In the event of a shutdown, funding for the shipments of weapons from DOD’s stockpiles would continue. The Pentagon can still use billions of dollars “recaptured” as part of a “revaluation process” after an accounting error turned up $6.2 billion worth of aid available to send weapons to Ukraine from DOD’s own coffers, Sherwood said.

The execution of the authority available in a presidential drawdown, which DOD has used to send billions of dollars of equipment to Ukraine since the invasion last year, “is not subject to a time limitation” and so “can extend across fiscal years,” Sherwood said.

But the delivery of that equipment could be hindered by furloughs and the suspension of DOD activities due to the shutdown, he said.

Funding for new security assistance to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative would also stop, Sherwood said. This means DOD would not be able to let any new contracts with the defense industry to build weapons for Kyiv.

The news comes as hope is dimming for lawmakers to reach a deal to avert a shutdown after the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. Key factions of the House Republican conference reached a tentative agreement Sunday to keep the government funded through Oct. 31, but the deal is not expected to pass the Senate.

Meanwhile, the fighting in Ukraine shows no signs of letting up. The much-anticipated spring counteroffensive has been slower than anticipated, with both sides experiencing massive casualties.

Still, there are signs Ukraine’s forces are making progress, with Kyiv reporting Monday that its troops had recaptured territory around the eastern city of Bakhmut, including two strategic villages on the southern flank of the city.

Ukraine is expected to receive additional weapons shipments this month, including the first of a planned 31 U.S. Army M1 Abrams tanks, which officials hope will give Kyiv’s forces an edge in the fight.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/19/us-shutdown-ukraine-weapons-training-00116727

 

[DEVILsSON]

Sadly it looks like the Ukrainian air defense system (malfunction) was responsible for the market attack.


Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy

Spoiler

"
Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy
John Ismay
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:05 AM PDT·6 min read
3.6k


The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Police officers and rescuers inspect the site of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 6, 2023. Press service of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS
Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, soldiers shelled homes and a preschool, killing six.

Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

The likely missile failure happened amid the back-and-forth battles common in the surrounding area. Russian forces shelled Kostiantynivka the night before; Ukrainian artillery fire from the city was reported in a local Telegram group just minutes before the strike on the market.

Burned cars are seen at the site of a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine September 6, 2023. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Donetsk region/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces said the country’s security service is investigating the incident and under national law can’t comment further.

Ukrainian authorities initially tried to prevent journalists with the Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath. But the reporters were eventually able to get to the scene, interview witnesses and collect remnants of the weapon used.

The Strike

Security camera footage shows that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

As the sound of the approaching missile is heard, at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound. They face the camera — in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory. Moments before it strikes, the missile’s reflection is visible as it passes over two parked cars, showing it traveling from the northwest.

The missile’s warhead detonates a few yards above the ground shortly before impact, blasting metal fragments outward. The resulting crater and damage extending from the point of detonation is consistent with a missile coming from a northwesterly route, according to an explosives expert and a Times analysis.

A Suspected Ukrainian Launch Site

Further evidence reveals that minutes before the strike, the Ukrainian military launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles northwest of Kostiantynivka.

Reporters with the Times were in Druzhkivka when they heard an outgoing missile launch at 2 p.m., followed a few minutes later by a second. By chance, one member of the team recorded the first launch in a voice message.

Residents in Druzhkivka also reported an outgoing launch at that time on a local Telegram group. “One more,” a post at 2:03 p.m. said, referring to a second missile launch. Locals near the launches described them as abnormally loud — beyond the sounds of war they have become accustomed to — which tracks with witness accounts of past Buk launches.

The timing of these launches is consistent with the time frame for the missile that struck the market in Kostiantynivka, around 2:04 p.m.

Additionally, two witnesses who spoke to the Times said they saw the missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in the direction of the Russian front line around the time of the strike; one of them said he saw the missiles going in the direction of Kostiantynivka. A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Druzhkivka, who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard two missile launches around the same time.

One of the witnesses also said the missiles were launched from fields on the outskirts of the town, a place residents say is used by the Ukrainian military and from which they have previously seen air defense missiles.

Times reporters who visited the site saw indications that it had recently been used by the military, including trenches, trash pits and wide tracks consistent with a large military vehicle.

Another key indicator: scorch marks. Various ground-launched air defense missiles are fired from the rear of a large vehicle and burn the surrounding turf when they are fired. Analysis of before-and-after satellite imagery shows new scorch marks around the trenches on the day of the strike, possibly indicating that the site was used for launching missiles.

The Missile

In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces used a missile fired by an S-300 air defense system, which Russia has used both to intercept aircraft and strike targets on the ground. But an S-300 missile carries a different warhead from the one that exploded in Kostiantynivka.

The metal facades of buildings closest to the explosion were perforated with hundreds of square or rectangular holes, probably made by cubelike objects blown outward from the missile.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: 8 millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

A Times reporter also reviewed other missile fragments recovered from multiple locations in Ukraine that had been fired by Russian S-300, S-400 and Buk air defense systems, as well as two different U.S. air defense systems. Their shapes and measurements show that the damage at the market site was most likely caused by an 9M38.

Two independent military bomb-disposal experts, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak candidly, came to the same conclusion and said that the fragments and damage at the strike site are most consistent with an 9M38.

Several witnesses either heard or saw Ukrainian forces firing surface-to-air missiles from Druzhkivka toward Kostiantynivka at the time of the market strike. And evidence collected at the market shows that the missile came from that direction.

Why the missile, which has a maximum range of just over 17 miles, may have landed in Kostiantynivka is unclear — although it’s possible it malfunctioned and crashed before hitting its intended target.

In any case, at such a short range — less than 10 miles — the missile is most likely to have landed with unspent fuel in its rocket motor, which would detonate or burn upon impact, offering a possible explanation for the widespread scorch marks at the market.

c.2023 The New York Times Company



Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:18 AM PDT·2 min read
239

1 / 3
Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka
KYIV (Reuters) -Evidence suggests a deadly explosion at a busy market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka this month was caused by an errant missile fired by Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Ukraine has said the Sept. 6 blast, which killed at least 16 people, was caused by a Russian missile.

"Evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system," the newspaper reported.

Reuters could not independently verify the report.

The press service of Ukraine's SBU security service, asked about the report, said that according to an investigation still underway, the Russians were responsible for the strike, which it said had involved a Russian S-300 missile system.

"This is evidenced, in particular, by the identified missile fragments recovered at the scene of the tragedy," it said, adding that the investigation was also examining other materials that pointed to Russian involvement in the shelling.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the circumstances were being studied by law enforcement agencies and that "the legal truth will be established".

'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'

He added that the publication of foreign media reports raising "doubts about Russia's involvement in the attack... entails the growth of conspiracy theories" and would require examination by the investigative authorities.

"In the meantime, we must not forget: it was Russia that launched the invasion of Ukraine and it is Russia that is responsible for bringing war to our country," he said.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Tuesday described the Sept. 6 blast as "a Ukrainian attack on its own city".

The New York Times report said security camera footage showed the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

It said that minutes before the strike, Ukraine had launched two surface-to-air missiles towards the front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles (16 km) northwest of Kostiantynivka, and quoted a witness as saying they went in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Holes caused by the explosion and fragments at the scene were consistent with the 9M38 missile fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle, it said. The Buk system is used both by Ukraine and Russia.
"

 

[Strychnine]

Sadly it looks like the Ukrainian air defense system (malfunction) was responsible for the market attack.


Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy

Spoiler

"
Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy
John Ismay
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:05 AM PDT·6 min read
3.6k


The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Police officers and rescuers inspect the site of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 6, 2023. Press service of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS
Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, soldiers shelled homes and a preschool, killing six.

Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

The likely missile failure happened amid the back-and-forth battles common in the surrounding area. Russian forces shelled Kostiantynivka the night before; Ukrainian artillery fire from the city was reported in a local Telegram group just minutes before the strike on the market.

Burned cars are seen at the site of a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine September 6, 2023. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Donetsk region/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces said the country’s security service is investigating the incident and under national law can’t comment further.

Ukrainian authorities initially tried to prevent journalists with the Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath. But the reporters were eventually able to get to the scene, interview witnesses and collect remnants of the weapon used.

The Strike

Security camera footage shows that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

As the sound of the approaching missile is heard, at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound. They face the camera — in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory. Moments before it strikes, the missile’s reflection is visible as it passes over two parked cars, showing it traveling from the northwest.

The missile’s warhead detonates a few yards above the ground shortly before impact, blasting metal fragments outward. The resulting crater and damage extending from the point of detonation is consistent with a missile coming from a northwesterly route, according to an explosives expert and a Times analysis.

A Suspected Ukrainian Launch Site

Further evidence reveals that minutes before the strike, the Ukrainian military launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles northwest of Kostiantynivka.

Reporters with the Times were in Druzhkivka when they heard an outgoing missile launch at 2 p.m., followed a few minutes later by a second. By chance, one member of the team recorded the first launch in a voice message.

Residents in Druzhkivka also reported an outgoing launch at that time on a local Telegram group. “One more,” a post at 2:03 p.m. said, referring to a second missile launch. Locals near the launches described them as abnormally loud — beyond the sounds of war they have become accustomed to — which tracks with witness accounts of past Buk launches.

The timing of these launches is consistent with the time frame for the missile that struck the market in Kostiantynivka, around 2:04 p.m.

Additionally, two witnesses who spoke to the Times said they saw the missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in the direction of the Russian front line around the time of the strike; one of them said he saw the missiles going in the direction of Kostiantynivka. A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Druzhkivka, who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard two missile launches around the same time.

One of the witnesses also said the missiles were launched from fields on the outskirts of the town, a place residents say is used by the Ukrainian military and from which they have previously seen air defense missiles.

Times reporters who visited the site saw indications that it had recently been used by the military, including trenches, trash pits and wide tracks consistent with a large military vehicle.

Another key indicator: scorch marks. Various ground-launched air defense missiles are fired from the rear of a large vehicle and burn the surrounding turf when they are fired. Analysis of before-and-after satellite imagery shows new scorch marks around the trenches on the day of the strike, possibly indicating that the site was used for launching missiles.

The Missile

In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces used a missile fired by an S-300 air defense system, which Russia has used both to intercept aircraft and strike targets on the ground. But an S-300 missile carries a different warhead from the one that exploded in Kostiantynivka.

The metal facades of buildings closest to the explosion were perforated with hundreds of square or rectangular holes, probably made by cubelike objects blown outward from the missile.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: 8 millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

A Times reporter also reviewed other missile fragments recovered from multiple locations in Ukraine that had been fired by Russian S-300, S-400 and Buk air defense systems, as well as two different U.S. air defense systems. Their shapes and measurements show that the damage at the market site was most likely caused by an 9M38.

Two independent military bomb-disposal experts, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak candidly, came to the same conclusion and said that the fragments and damage at the strike site are most consistent with an 9M38.

Several witnesses either heard or saw Ukrainian forces firing surface-to-air missiles from Druzhkivka toward Kostiantynivka at the time of the market strike. And evidence collected at the market shows that the missile came from that direction.

Why the missile, which has a maximum range of just over 17 miles, may have landed in Kostiantynivka is unclear — although it’s possible it malfunctioned and crashed before hitting its intended target.

In any case, at such a short range — less than 10 miles — the missile is most likely to have landed with unspent fuel in its rocket motor, which would detonate or burn upon impact, offering a possible explanation for the widespread scorch marks at the market.

c.2023 The New York Times Company



Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:18 AM PDT·2 min read
239

1 / 3
Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka
KYIV (Reuters) -Evidence suggests a deadly explosion at a busy market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka this month was caused by an errant missile fired by Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Ukraine has said the Sept. 6 blast, which killed at least 16 people, was caused by a Russian missile.

"Evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system," the newspaper reported.

Reuters could not independently verify the report.

The press service of Ukraine's SBU security service, asked about the report, said that according to an investigation still underway, the Russians were responsible for the strike, which it said had involved a Russian S-300 missile system.

"This is evidenced, in particular, by the identified missile fragments recovered at the scene of the tragedy," it said, adding that the investigation was also examining other materials that pointed to Russian involvement in the shelling.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the circumstances were being studied by law enforcement agencies and that "the legal truth will be established".

'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'

He added that the publication of foreign media reports raising "doubts about Russia's involvement in the attack... entails the growth of conspiracy theories" and would require examination by the investigative authorities.

"In the meantime, we must not forget: it was Russia that launched the invasion of Ukraine and it is Russia that is responsible for bringing war to our country," he said.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Tuesday described the Sept. 6 blast as "a Ukrainian attack on its own city".

The New York Times report said security camera footage showed the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

It said that minutes before the strike, Ukraine had launched two surface-to-air missiles towards the front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles (16 km) northwest of Kostiantynivka, and quoted a witness as saying they went in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Holes caused by the explosion and fragments at the scene were consistent with the 9M38 missile fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle, it said. The Buk system is used both by Ukraine and Russia.
"

Sad to read that, but the truth is the truth.

 

[scoopj]

Drone attacks against Wagner in Sudan believed to be by Ukraine.

Sudan: Ukraine's special services 'likely' behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces, a Ukrainian military source says | CNN

 

[SandisLL]

Sadly it looks like the Ukrainian air defense system (malfunction) was responsible for the market attack.


Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy

Spoiler

"
Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy
John Ismay
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:05 AM PDT·6 min read
3.6k


The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Police officers and rescuers inspect the site of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 6, 2023. Press service of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS
Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, soldiers shelled homes and a preschool, killing six.

Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

The likely missile failure happened amid the back-and-forth battles common in the surrounding area. Russian forces shelled Kostiantynivka the night before; Ukrainian artillery fire from the city was reported in a local Telegram group just minutes before the strike on the market.

Burned cars are seen at the site of a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine September 6, 2023. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Donetsk region/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces said the country’s security service is investigating the incident and under national law can’t comment further.

Ukrainian authorities initially tried to prevent journalists with the Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath. But the reporters were eventually able to get to the scene, interview witnesses and collect remnants of the weapon used.

The Strike

Security camera footage shows that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

As the sound of the approaching missile is heard, at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound. They face the camera — in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory. Moments before it strikes, the missile’s reflection is visible as it passes over two parked cars, showing it traveling from the northwest.

The missile’s warhead detonates a few yards above the ground shortly before impact, blasting metal fragments outward. The resulting crater and damage extending from the point of detonation is consistent with a missile coming from a northwesterly route, according to an explosives expert and a Times analysis.

A Suspected Ukrainian Launch Site

Further evidence reveals that minutes before the strike, the Ukrainian military launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles northwest of Kostiantynivka.

Reporters with the Times were in Druzhkivka when they heard an outgoing missile launch at 2 p.m., followed a few minutes later by a second. By chance, one member of the team recorded the first launch in a voice message.

Residents in Druzhkivka also reported an outgoing launch at that time on a local Telegram group. “One more,” a post at 2:03 p.m. said, referring to a second missile launch. Locals near the launches described them as abnormally loud — beyond the sounds of war they have become accustomed to — which tracks with witness accounts of past Buk launches.

The timing of these launches is consistent with the time frame for the missile that struck the market in Kostiantynivka, around 2:04 p.m.

Additionally, two witnesses who spoke to the Times said they saw the missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in the direction of the Russian front line around the time of the strike; one of them said he saw the missiles going in the direction of Kostiantynivka. A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Druzhkivka, who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard two missile launches around the same time.

One of the witnesses also said the missiles were launched from fields on the outskirts of the town, a place residents say is used by the Ukrainian military and from which they have previously seen air defense missiles.

Times reporters who visited the site saw indications that it had recently been used by the military, including trenches, trash pits and wide tracks consistent with a large military vehicle.

Another key indicator: scorch marks. Various ground-launched air defense missiles are fired from the rear of a large vehicle and burn the surrounding turf when they are fired. Analysis of before-and-after satellite imagery shows new scorch marks around the trenches on the day of the strike, possibly indicating that the site was used for launching missiles.

The Missile

In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces used a missile fired by an S-300 air defense system, which Russia has used both to intercept aircraft and strike targets on the ground. But an S-300 missile carries a different warhead from the one that exploded in Kostiantynivka.

The metal facades of buildings closest to the explosion were perforated with hundreds of square or rectangular holes, probably made by cubelike objects blown outward from the missile.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: 8 millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

A Times reporter also reviewed other missile fragments recovered from multiple locations in Ukraine that had been fired by Russian S-300, S-400 and Buk air defense systems, as well as two different U.S. air defense systems. Their shapes and measurements show that the damage at the market site was most likely caused by an 9M38.

Two independent military bomb-disposal experts, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak candidly, came to the same conclusion and said that the fragments and damage at the strike site are most consistent with an 9M38.

Several witnesses either heard or saw Ukrainian forces firing surface-to-air missiles from Druzhkivka toward Kostiantynivka at the time of the market strike. And evidence collected at the market shows that the missile came from that direction.

Why the missile, which has a maximum range of just over 17 miles, may have landed in Kostiantynivka is unclear — although it’s possible it malfunctioned and crashed before hitting its intended target.

In any case, at such a short range — less than 10 miles — the missile is most likely to have landed with unspent fuel in its rocket motor, which would detonate or burn upon impact, offering a possible explanation for the widespread scorch marks at the market.

c.2023 The New York Times Company



Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:18 AM PDT·2 min read
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Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka
KYIV (Reuters) -Evidence suggests a deadly explosion at a busy market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka this month was caused by an errant missile fired by Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Ukraine has said the Sept. 6 blast, which killed at least 16 people, was caused by a Russian missile.

"Evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system," the newspaper reported.

Reuters could not independently verify the report.

The press service of Ukraine's SBU security service, asked about the report, said that according to an investigation still underway, the Russians were responsible for the strike, which it said had involved a Russian S-300 missile system.

"This is evidenced, in particular, by the identified missile fragments recovered at the scene of the tragedy," it said, adding that the investigation was also examining other materials that pointed to Russian involvement in the shelling.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the circumstances were being studied by law enforcement agencies and that "the legal truth will be established".

'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'

He added that the publication of foreign media reports raising "doubts about Russia's involvement in the attack... entails the growth of conspiracy theories" and would require examination by the investigative authorities.

"In the meantime, we must not forget: it was Russia that launched the invasion of Ukraine and it is Russia that is responsible for bringing war to our country," he said.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Tuesday described the Sept. 6 blast as "a Ukrainian attack on its own city".

The New York Times report said security camera footage showed the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

It said that minutes before the strike, Ukraine had launched two surface-to-air missiles towards the front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles (16 km) northwest of Kostiantynivka, and quoted a witness as saying they went in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Holes caused by the explosion and fragments at the scene were consistent with the 9M38 missile fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle, it said. The Buk system is used both by Ukraine and Russia.
"

Ukr doesn't manufacture Buk missiles.
Therefore ALL of them they does have had been manufactured in 1970 ies till early 1990 ies.
Obiviously such old stuff might malfunction in some cases.

 

[curryjunkie]

I read that as Godzilla, must lay off the magic mushrooms..

 

[SandisLL]

Polish president Duda about Ukraine.
" Ukraine is like a drawing man, it can drag us into the depths. "
He also told : Should we be offended by it [ ukraine ].
English version from his announcnment is easy to google up....multiple sources...incl ukr resources.

 

[MeatWagon06]

Sadly it looks like the Ukrainian air defense system (malfunction) was responsible for the market attack.


Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy

Spoiler

"
Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy
John Ismay
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:05 AM PDT·6 min read
3.6k


The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Police officers and rescuers inspect the site of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 6, 2023. Press service of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS
Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, soldiers shelled homes and a preschool, killing six.

Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

The likely missile failure happened amid the back-and-forth battles common in the surrounding area. Russian forces shelled Kostiantynivka the night before; Ukrainian artillery fire from the city was reported in a local Telegram group just minutes before the strike on the market.

Burned cars are seen at the site of a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine September 6, 2023. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Donetsk region/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces said the country’s security service is investigating the incident and under national law can’t comment further.

Ukrainian authorities initially tried to prevent journalists with the Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath. But the reporters were eventually able to get to the scene, interview witnesses and collect remnants of the weapon used.

The Strike

Security camera footage shows that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

As the sound of the approaching missile is heard, at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound. They face the camera — in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory. Moments before it strikes, the missile’s reflection is visible as it passes over two parked cars, showing it traveling from the northwest.

The missile’s warhead detonates a few yards above the ground shortly before impact, blasting metal fragments outward. The resulting crater and damage extending from the point of detonation is consistent with a missile coming from a northwesterly route, according to an explosives expert and a Times analysis.

A Suspected Ukrainian Launch Site

Further evidence reveals that minutes before the strike, the Ukrainian military launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles northwest of Kostiantynivka.

Reporters with the Times were in Druzhkivka when they heard an outgoing missile launch at 2 p.m., followed a few minutes later by a second. By chance, one member of the team recorded the first launch in a voice message.

Residents in Druzhkivka also reported an outgoing launch at that time on a local Telegram group. “One more,” a post at 2:03 p.m. said, referring to a second missile launch. Locals near the launches described them as abnormally loud — beyond the sounds of war they have become accustomed to — which tracks with witness accounts of past Buk launches.

The timing of these launches is consistent with the time frame for the missile that struck the market in Kostiantynivka, around 2:04 p.m.

Additionally, two witnesses who spoke to the Times said they saw the missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in the direction of the Russian front line around the time of the strike; one of them said he saw the missiles going in the direction of Kostiantynivka. A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Druzhkivka, who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard two missile launches around the same time.

One of the witnesses also said the missiles were launched from fields on the outskirts of the town, a place residents say is used by the Ukrainian military and from which they have previously seen air defense missiles.

Times reporters who visited the site saw indications that it had recently been used by the military, including trenches, trash pits and wide tracks consistent with a large military vehicle.

Another key indicator: scorch marks. Various ground-launched air defense missiles are fired from the rear of a large vehicle and burn the surrounding turf when they are fired. Analysis of before-and-after satellite imagery shows new scorch marks around the trenches on the day of the strike, possibly indicating that the site was used for launching missiles.

The Missile

In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces used a missile fired by an S-300 air defense system, which Russia has used both to intercept aircraft and strike targets on the ground. But an S-300 missile carries a different warhead from the one that exploded in Kostiantynivka.

The metal facades of buildings closest to the explosion were perforated with hundreds of square or rectangular holes, probably made by cubelike objects blown outward from the missile.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: 8 millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

A Times reporter also reviewed other missile fragments recovered from multiple locations in Ukraine that had been fired by Russian S-300, S-400 and Buk air defense systems, as well as two different U.S. air defense systems. Their shapes and measurements show that the damage at the market site was most likely caused by an 9M38.

Two independent military bomb-disposal experts, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak candidly, came to the same conclusion and said that the fragments and damage at the strike site are most consistent with an 9M38.

Several witnesses either heard or saw Ukrainian forces firing surface-to-air missiles from Druzhkivka toward Kostiantynivka at the time of the market strike. And evidence collected at the market shows that the missile came from that direction.

Why the missile, which has a maximum range of just over 17 miles, may have landed in Kostiantynivka is unclear — although it’s possible it malfunctioned and crashed before hitting its intended target.

In any case, at such a short range — less than 10 miles — the missile is most likely to have landed with unspent fuel in its rocket motor, which would detonate or burn upon impact, offering a possible explanation for the widespread scorch marks at the market.

c.2023 The New York Times Company



Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:18 AM PDT·2 min read
239

1 / 3
Evidence suggests errant Ukrainian missile hit busy market - New York Times
FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of a Russian military strike in Kostiantynivka
KYIV (Reuters) -Evidence suggests a deadly explosion at a busy market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka this month was caused by an errant missile fired by Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Ukraine has said the Sept. 6 blast, which killed at least 16 people, was caused by a Russian missile.

"Evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system," the newspaper reported.

Reuters could not independently verify the report.

The press service of Ukraine's SBU security service, asked about the report, said that according to an investigation still underway, the Russians were responsible for the strike, which it said had involved a Russian S-300 missile system.

"This is evidenced, in particular, by the identified missile fragments recovered at the scene of the tragedy," it said, adding that the investigation was also examining other materials that pointed to Russian involvement in the shelling.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the circumstances were being studied by law enforcement agencies and that "the legal truth will be established".

'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'

He added that the publication of foreign media reports raising "doubts about Russia's involvement in the attack... entails the growth of conspiracy theories" and would require examination by the investigative authorities.

"In the meantime, we must not forget: it was Russia that launched the invasion of Ukraine and it is Russia that is responsible for bringing war to our country," he said.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Tuesday described the Sept. 6 blast as "a Ukrainian attack on its own city".

The New York Times report said security camera footage showed the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

It said that minutes before the strike, Ukraine had launched two surface-to-air missiles towards the front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles (16 km) northwest of Kostiantynivka, and quoted a witness as saying they went in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Holes caused by the explosion and fragments at the scene were consistent with the 9M38 missile fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle, it said. The Buk system is used both by Ukraine and Russia.
"

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukr...report-it-accidentally-bombed-its-own-market/

 

[Rational Poster]

Polish president Duda about Ukraine.
" Ukraine is like a drawing man, it can drag us into the depths. "
He also told : Should we be offended by it [ ukraine ].
English version from his announcnment is easy to google up....multiple sources...incl ukr resources.

I think Russia is going to lose this war of attrition with the west much sooner than the rest of the world loses resolve. Even Germany has earmarked funds out to 2027.

I think the political situation inside Russia won't allow for another mass conscription beyond the regular annual rotation. The initial waves of conscripts were mostly for the far east, not "true" Russians, so everyone is okay with it. Even the annual rotation is likely to cause a bit more unrest than usual as these guys will all know they're going to the front and not just on some training exercises. The troops Russia has in Ukraine are all they're going to get anytime soon. Russia's own budget has more money for internal security than the entire military so it's kind of telling where their priorities actually lie. I think they're concerned about repercussion of another large conscription wave both for the economy and unrest because why wouldn't they just call up more men sooner?

I don't think they have the production to keep it up, either in scale or the technical expertise. Brain drain since 2014 when sanctions first started and massive exodus of manpower during the first wave of conscription out of the country, and of course huge sanctions. Which even if they're able to circumvent, it's through much longer logistics networks that extend production times. They're just as unprepared for a long duration high intensity conflict as the west. The west diverted their production to consumer goods and Russia turned into a gas station with a coal mine. They have Soviet stockpiles and a rather ordinary amount of arms productions when compared to everyone else. That's why they're begging their neighbors for more military aid and leaning on their stockpiles while they try to reorganize production.