Peter Zeihan is a forecaster so he only uses big picture factors and trends which works most of the time but almost completely dismisses human agency. A lot of his predictions haven’t panned out because of this, he doesn’t care about the incentives of people/governments. So he’ll do things like make predictions that Europe will go dark when Russian energy is cut off, but 1) Europe didn’t completely get off Russian energy and 2) He didn’t consider that Europe could get alternatives even though they needed it.
The greatest flaws in this form of thinking (which Peter himself brings up) is that by all metrics Argentina should be a great power and Japan should be a backwater. Another one that very well may prove Peter wrong is this war we are discussing.
Peter is totally right that Russia should win this war, but he didn’t and couldn’t count on Ukrainian bravery, western technology, and that Ukrainians are competent enough to operate western equipment.
By the way, making predictions is incredibly difficult, particularly short term ones. I don’t want to jump on a fuck Peter bandwagon that happens whenever someone becomes popular. I’ll take his long term predictions, but short term stuff can be taken with a grain of salt.
I am not a zealot believer in everything he says, but it’s difficult to dismiss his points outright specifically when it comes to demographics. He is clearly a “my shit smells amazing” person so he regularly steps out of his lane and talks in absolute certainties on things that he just truly can’t know about. The breadth of his coverage would necessitate him being an expert in too much for it to be feasible without him being a savant. He’s not a savant.
However, I do subscribe to a few things that he and others(and most of the prognosticators) agree on.
- There are Turnings for the world and for America specifically.
- Demographic data shows that there are A. Not enough babies to replace bigger generations and the wealth there in and B. The biggest generation, biggest wealth creator and investors are all retiring and dying at the same time.
The second point specifically deals with a credit crunch that we’re already seeing from the Fed(and other global lending institutions) and we haven’t even gotten into the demographic issue there yet.
Now, a few things I disagree with him on.
- America(and the world) will just abandon shipping security for “some reason”. This one I just don’t even think he clearly explains in his book. He just kind of alludes to America pulling back and it all going belly up but doesn’t necessarily explain why.
- China “ending in a decade”. I agree that China has peaked due to demographics and their financial system being basically a big fraud but they still steal enough IP to make a big impact in the world. I would say they decline over the next 30 years versus 10.
- the Wealth from the boomers won’t just disappear as it will be passed down and then reutilized.
- I know this one is going to seem typical from me, but he’s a big Bitcoin dismisser and regularly presents an ignorant view on the technology.
He’s clearly intelligent and brings up great points and perspectives. I like to see what he says on a lot because he clearly knows a lot. However, I don’t drink the koolaide of any one forecaster.
I would say that it’s unfair to say that he got the Russian Ukraine situation wrong. Everyone got it wrong. 1/1000 forecasters would have said that Russia would be in this situation at this time. Everyone thought they’d roll Ukraine much easier.
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