International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V12

[Hog-train]

But it's not the same thing. Seems like western countries have a lot of reservations as to the aftermath of this whole thing, which seems pretty reasonable.

Not letting Ukraine hit inside Russia for fear of escalation was understandable earlier on in the war. But we are way past that point now. It's already escalated into full blown war that could possibly last years. And the US and Germany military command know that - they're not stupid.

IMO the fear of escalation just comes off as excuses now.

To limit how Ukraine can attack Russia is making an already Herculean task much harder. Russia still has a huge artillery advantage, airpower advantage, possible future deployments can give a manpower advantage, etc.

I think I believe the general's guess that some of the Western powers are afraid of a Putin collapse and a power vacuum. Thus, some in the West would like stalemate, then negotiations ending in Russia keeping some of the land, but Ukraine gets NATO membership (as was recently put forth as an idea in the media.)

Watch the whole interview - pretty good one IMO.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I believe that idea came from a politician from NATO country then media ran with it. UKR will decide how war ends.

 

[SandisLL]

Yeah, such idea is talked in media: Ukraine might cede lands Putin will demand and then they might get NATO membership.

It will not happen in such way.
If Ukr will cede territories etc, there will be some " negotiations " ....
Russia will prepare for next attack, west will reduce supplies both military and financially and welcome in reality: cheap buffer country , no NATO and NO EU.
Live till next attack.

Orban btw is thinking that all Ukraine is Russia, he told Aliev that Hungary does have land border with Russia.
Imagine how he might approve Ukr in NATO?
Btw Hungary isn't motivated also Ukr EU membership cos immigration threats, agricultural subsidies Ukr will get etc etc etc etc.
Pretty financial reasons...

 

[Hog-train]

I believe that idea came from a politician from NATO country then media ran with it. UKR will decide how war ends.

Of course UKR will decide, but the West can force their hand if they limit aid.

I think that NATO idea echoes the sentiments of some in the West. That politician wouldn't have brought it up in the media if it wasn't already discussed (internally) as a possibility.

 

[Rod1]

I want geopolitical destabilization because I do not support the current order thus I see it as a good thing. That is one of my main motives for supporting the Russians.

At least you are honest.

Most leftists will tear down their clothes pretending to care about democracy.

 

[Rod1]

You're not a person to be taken seriously.

Could have just said im an edgy contrarian. I dont like the popular thing. Which is how most of the people who support russia are.

Sadly no, his position is way to common around the world, tons of people resent the western world order and will lowkey support anything anti-American as a result.

The vast majority does play ball with the West whenever possible, that's where you get the comments of Lula or AMLO or the Melenchon where they condemn Russian aggression and won't help Russia because of fear against the West but will drag their feet as much as possible.

Quite the contrary
People like you are all too common

Sadly this is true, for the most part however the good news is that most people won't do shit about it.

 

[Rational Poster]

Not letting Ukraine hit inside Russia for fear of escalation was understandable earlier on in the war. But we are way past that point now. It's already escalated into full blown war that could possibly last years. And the US and Germany military command know that - they're not stupid.

IMO the fear of escalation just comes off as excuses now.

To limit how Ukraine can attack Russia is making an already Herculean task much harder. Russia still has a huge artillery advantage, airpower advantage, possible future deployments can give a manpower advantage, etc.

I think I believe the general's guess that some of the Western powers are afraid of a Putin collapse and a power vacuum. Thus, some in the West would like stalemate, then negotiations ending in Russia keeping some of the land, but Ukraine gets NATO membership (as was recently put forth as an idea in the media.)

Watch the whole interview - pretty good one IMO.

This still isn't the same thing as not wanting Ukraine to win. Even this scenario is a win for Ukraine since Russian objective is to subjugate the entire country.

Fighting and strikes inside Russia's borders is literally a further escalation of the conflict since right now it's mostly contained within Ukraine's borders.

Concerns over the aftermath of the collapse of the Russian state is completely reasonable to me.

 

[AWilder]

This still isn't the same thing as not wanting Ukraine to win. Even this scenario is a win for Ukraine since Russian objective is to subjugate the entire country.

Fighting and strikes inside Russia's borders is literally a further escalation of the conflict since right now it's mostly contained within Ukraine's borders.

Concerns over the aftermath of the collapse of the Russian state is completely reasonable to me.

i think the West is more concerned with what would happen if Ukraine were to drive the front towards Moscow. I think there is a red line somewhere between Belgorod and Moscow that the west doesn't want to test. It limits Ukraine's options but i also don't think Ukraine want's to be driving an offensive within russia for a number of political and logistical reasons. No one wants to be involved in regime change within russia, imo.

 

[SandisLL]

Of course UKR will decide, but the West can force their hand if they limit aid.

I think that NATO idea echoes the sentiments of some in the West. That politician wouldn't have brought it up in the media if it wasn't already discussed (internally) as a possibility.

Yes.
First rammshtein had clear message: to calm down russia by exausting ....
0 mention about Ukr to win.

Also west started to delay supplies after succesful 2022 autumn ukr counter offensive.

Btw Ukraine will default de facto if europe will cease monthly money injections.
Not only EU( EC/ EP ) centralised.
Individual countries grants, loans and warrant letters too does matter a lot.

For example Ukr is getting money also from countries individually and from IMF, EBRD, WB...

What this means: WB loans partially are like member WB countries are warranting some % of loan .... issued to X.

For example even if small and unimoprtant country will not sign....it will not block loan but reduce loan ammount by $ sum this country will not warrant.
Funny mechanism.

There are so much nuances in Ukr financing.
Also we can't warrant WB loan for someone if one from xx politicians will not agree. In single country.

 

[Rod1]

To limit how Ukraine can attack Russia is making an already Herculean task much harder. Russia still has a huge artillery advantage, airpower advantage, possible future deployments can give a manpower advantage, etc.

Russia is like Round 2 Shane Carwin, it doesn't matters if he has the "advantage" in terms of power, its gassed and Ukraine isn't letting them recover.

Which is why they need that ceasefire so badly, all those munitions needed to exert the "artillery advantage" require a logistical chain and time that Russia doesn't has ergo why every Russian Telegram channel is filled with Russians complaining about ammo shortage in the front.

 

[SandisLL]

Sadly no, his position is way to common around the world, tons of people resent the western world order and will lowkey support anything anti-American as a result.

The vast majority does play ball with the West whenever possible, that's where you get the comments of Lula or AMLO or the Melenchon where they condemn Russian aggression and won't help Russia because of fear against the West but will drag their feet as much as possible.




Sadly this is true, for the most part however the good news is that most people won't do shit about it.

There also is not only some fear.
Clear calculation.
U codemn and with this a bit help to impose sanctions....
Then ask for russian commodities, fertilizers with discounts and get them...
Actually from business point very good choice...cold calcularion ...chess type game.

 

[SandisLL]

It is rumoured that India is attempting to get big wheat deal from Russia (purchase deal with huge discounts.... ). under India's rules ....
If this will happen, then China will follow, etc countries...

In this war winners aren't Ukr or Russia. BIC etc are already winners.
It isn't war, it is just business and nothing special ....for Brasil, India, Pakistan, China it is reality.
Iran and NK + Lukashenko ofc also for ideology reasons.

Ideology and propaganda is tool for elite to get power...and more wealth than they already does have. Sheeps ( polpulation ) are guided by masters and are happy ( according to elite ).

 

[Hog-train]

This still isn't the same thing as not wanting Ukraine to win. Even this scenario is a win for Ukraine since Russian objective is to subjugate the entire country.

The original Russian objective of taking the whole country is impossible now and I don't think that is Russia's goal anymore.

If we take an objective look, some in the West have been reluctant from the beginning and every step of the way. Germany had to be put under tremendous political pressure and shamed before they gave more than just helmets. Then literally everyone wanted to give tanks, except Germany held up the whole process. And the US were late too.

Then the US was all reluctant to give super effective cluster ammunition citing humanitarian concerns. Despite the fact that the amount of mines that were planted completely dwarfs any stray cluster munitions that didn't explode. And despite the fact that we have huge stockpiles of it and it was the perfect solution to dangerously dwindling artillery rounds. So another excuse there.

Now we have the whole resistance about giving air power.

I think it's not a black and white thing. There are some in the US that want to give full support while some are fighting it. Same in Germany and France. Hence the reticence. All of Eastern Europe want full support.

Fighting and strikes inside Russia's borders is literally a further escalation of the conflict since right now it's mostly contained within Ukraine's borders.

Yea but Ukraine has already been hitting inside Russia with their own weapons. And sunk their flagship in the Sea of Azov. So it's escalated already.

 

[SandisLL]

i think the West is more concerned with what would happen if Ukraine were to drive the front towards Moscow. I think there is a red line somewhere between Belgorod and Moscow that the west doesn't want to test. It limits Ukraine's options but i also don't think Ukraine want's to be driving an offensive within russia for a number of political and logistical reasons. No one wants to be involved in regime change within russia, imo.

Yes, west looks that fears from fall of Putin.

The same countries obiviously easy is to see that for example Austria and Germany wants russia to win partially, i.e to grab some land till next war. Orban in Hungary wants Ukr 100% incorporated in Russia. It is so easy to see....
Etc. realpolitik.
Israel and Swtizerland if to lurk in depth wants Russia to win.

 

[Rational Poster]

The original Russian objective of taking the whole country is impossible now and I don't think that is Russia's goal anymore.

If we take an objective look, some in the West have been reluctant from the beginning and every step of the way. Germany had to be put under tremendous political pressure and shamed before they gave more than just helmets. Then literally everyone wanted to give tanks, except Germany held up the whole process. And the US were late too.

Then the US was all reluctant to give super effective cluster ammunition citing humanitarian concerns. Despite the fact that the amount of mines that were planted completely dwarfs any stray cluster munitions that didn't explode. And despite the fact that we have huge stockpiles of it and it was the perfect solution to dangerously dwindling artillery rounds. So another excuse there.

Now we have the whole resistance about giving air power.

I think it's not a black and white thing. There are some in the US that want to give full support while some are fighting it. Hence the reticence.



Yea but Ukraine has already been hitting inside Russia with their own weapons. And sunk their flagship warship in the Sea of Azov. So it's escalated already.

Of course it's Russia's goal still and will remain Russia's goal even if they're pushed back to the other side of their border. The current state is a win for Ukraine, any further gains are a win for Ukraine as well.

Hitting inside Russia with their own weapons seems like something everyone on all sides are okay with. The strikes are so limited in scale and impact. I don't think there has been a single casualty from any of the drone strikes so far.

Missiles with US and UK serial numbers raining down on Moscow is an entirely different situation all together.

I don't think most Western's countries reluctance to get involved initially is that egregious, almost none of them are prepared for it, even today. Germany especially and especially since Russian saber rattlers have been openly threatening that they're next when Ukraine falls.

 

[SandisLL]

The original Russian objective of taking the whole country is impossible now and I don't think that is Russia's goal anymore.

If we take an objective look, some in the West have been reluctant from the beginning and every step of the way. Germany had to be put under tremendous political pressure and shamed before they gave more than just helmets. Then literally everyone wanted to give tanks, except Germany held up the whole process. And the US were late too.

Then the US was all reluctant to give super effective cluster ammunition citing humanitarian concerns. Despite the fact that the amount of mines that were planted completely dwarfs any stray cluster munitions that didn't explode. And despite the fact that we have huge stockpiles of it and it was the perfect solution to dangerously dwindling artillery rounds. So another excuse there.

Now we have the whole resistance about giving air power.

I think it's not a black and white thing. There are some in the US that want to give full support while some are fighting it. Same in Germany and France. Hence the reticence. All of Eastern Europe want full support.



Yea but Ukraine has already been hitting inside Russia with their own weapons. And sunk their flagship in the Sea of Azov. So it's escalated already.

Russia's objective still is russian world nothing else. ," They does have time till next elections, we have ethernity and decades ". Putin& Dugin.

So yeah, they like in 2014 th will after this war to start prepare for next war.

Also so called eastern europe ( usually considered as poor and dumb ) not all wants to see Ukr in NATO and EU for brutal reasons....
Talk is talk, walk is walk.

It is cool to sell factory in Eastern europe and purchase smaller in west etc.
For this reason Ukr recently had get hit in westerners owned factory not owned by locals..
This bearings for trucks factory......

 

[BlankaPresident]

The "some reason" is you're holding me up to values I have not expressed my support of especially not as a priority. I'm mad at the US coups because they overthrew my ideological peers and made the world a worse place according to my world view not because I believe in representative democracy and the sanctity of borders. My sense of right and wrong is not defined by following international law and I've never postured that it was. I am not an institutionalist I am an ideologue.

I want geopolitical destabilization because I do not support the current order thus I see it as a good thing. That is one of my main motives for supporting the Russians.

I obviously disagree but I appreciate your honesty.

Much better than the "neutral" chuds who want to see Ukraine conquered because Brandon.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[SandisLL]

I obviously disagree but I appreciate your honesty.

Much better than the "neutral" chuds who want to see Ukraine conquered because Brandon.

While how benefiting for locals was cool Russian world and geo political destabilisation in dumbass.......

Ofc was high unemployment % and poverty.
After 2014/2015 unemploymenet hiked up in these regions, salaries dropped down, rich ppl get more rich IF had proper political stance and had $ for bribes.
Vuala and now they are like germans from Sudetia, dreaming in 1938 th and in trenches in 1941-1945 th....
For Hitler.
Nothing wrong for sure.
Ideology is tool to manipulate with sheeps....
Kremlin is proficient in this and....there isn't 1400 AD , it is 2023 th and therefore you can't tell just capital punishment and property confiscation if you don't agree with something or maybe are suspicious.
Therefore all this ideology and psy ops are needed plus excuses...and modern stuff.

Real thinking still is like 600 years ago. Talking and texts are for ...guess.

 

[SandisLL]

Also sadly for Ukraine west isn't fighting proxy war vs holy Kremlin otherwise ....Ukr had get more and better supplies and quickly.
Ukr is nothing more than resin amortizator to calm down drunk friends.

Real proxy war had been if Ukr long ago had been supplied with consoderably more cluster ammo and ofc these ATACMS etc stuff year ago.
Pilots training had been started before february 2022 th and ....they had get F-35 not F-16 export versions for no NATO countries....

Now F-16 will not be game changer cos low numbers and intentional delays.