The odds seem to be in Rashad's favor but there's always a chance Nog catches him.
In Rashad's last 8 fights, Davis is the only one who didn't have Rashad in any kind of trouble. Jones, Rampage, Lyoto, and Thiago all dropped Rashad; Ortiz even had him in a tight guillotine. Jones didn't really hunt for the finish in that fight but if the other three had Nog's submission skills I believe they would have finished.
I also believe Davis and Brilz have better defensive grappling than Evans so just because Nog couldn't submit or continuously sweep them doesn't mean Evans will be able to stop it; Rashad really hasn't faced anyone with grappling close to Nog's.
Personally, I think Nog has the better boxing and grappling... but Rashad has the more effective MMA game. I hold on to the hope that Nog will catch him but a "stifling decision" for Rashad seems the more likely.