The one of the best currently AIs was asked to weigh in on a likely outcome of JJ and Poatan fought currently with JJ making his final match trying to get the belt back from the current LHW superstar and securing his status as the Boogeyman of LHW.
A hypothetical fight between Jon Jones and Alex Pereira at light heavyweight would likely come down to a clash of styles, strategies, and adaptations, given their elite pedigrees and strengths. Let’s break it down into the most likely scenarios based on a critical and objective analysis of their careers, skills, and fight tendencies.
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1. Stand-Up Battle
Alex Pereira’s Edge:
Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA, boasting elite-level kickboxing credentials, precision, and knockout power. He has shown an ability to adapt during fights (e.g., targeting Jiri Prochazka’s weakness to high kicks) and a strong understanding of timing and range.
Stat Highlight: Pereira’s knockout ratio is over 80%, reflecting his finishing ability.
Jon Jones’ Response:
Jones, despite not being a knockout artist, has creative striking with elbows, oblique kicks, and spinning techniques. His reach (84.5") allows him to keep opponents at bay, and his ability to mix strikes with clinch work has neutralized strong strikers in the past.
However, in recent fights at light heavyweight (e.g., vs Dominick Reyes), Jones struggled against opponents with high-volume striking and footwork, suggesting Pereira’s pressure and precision could give him problems.
Most Likely Outcome on the Feet:
Pereira’s power and accuracy could cause early trouble if Jones cannot close the distance.
Jones would likely avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and attempt to tie Pereira up in the clinch or move the fight to the ground.
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2. Grappling Battle
Jon Jones’ Edge:
Jones’ wrestling and clinch work have historically been his strongest weapons. He has one of the highest takedown success rates (44%) in light heavyweight history and a dominant top game, with vicious elbows and submissions.
Alex Pereira’s Improvements:
Pereira has made rapid strides in his takedown defense (notably against Jan BĹ‚achowicz) and offensive grappling, including developing the "Poatan necktie" submission. However, he remains less experienced than Jones in prolonged grappling exchanges.
Most Likely Outcome in Grappling:
Jones would press for takedowns early and use his wrestling superiority to avoid striking exchanges.
Pereira’s takedown defense might hold initially, but Jones’ chain wrestling could eventually break through and put Pereira in disadvantageous positions.
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3. Fight IQ and Adaptability
Both fighters possess high-level fight intelligence:
Jones is known for making mid-fight adjustments and has a history of nullifying his opponents’ strengths (e.g., against Daniel Cormier and Glover Teixeira).
Pereira, however, has quickly adapted his skills to MMA and has demonstrated fight-ending strategies mid-battle (as seen against Jiri Prochazka).
Most Likely Outcome Based on Fight IQ:
Jones would look to slow Pereira’s offense with wrestling, clinch work, and kicks to disrupt his rhythm.
Pereira would aim to trap Jones into striking exchanges, targeting gaps in Jones’ recent light heavyweight defenses.
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4. Conditioning and Durability
Jones’ Durability:
Jones has proven to have an iron chin and strong cardio, often maintaining pressure throughout five rounds.
Pereira’s Durability:
Pereira has also shown toughness and endurance, but he has been rocked in previous fights (e.g., Israel Adesanya in their rematch).
Most Likely Scenario:
Pereira may struggle in later rounds if Jones can take him into deep waters with grappling exchanges.
Jones could use his cardio and durability to dominate late rounds if the fight extends past the third round.
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Final Prediction
Most Likely Scenario:
Early Rounds (1-2):
Pereira lands dangerous strikes and puts Jones in defensive mode, possibly hurting him. Jones focuses on survival and testing Pereira’s takedown defense.
Mid Rounds (3-4):
Jones finds ways to clinch and wrestle, tiring Pereira. He uses ground-and-pound and positioning to control the fight, potentially stealing rounds or looking for a submission.
Late Rounds (5):
If Pereira cannot secure a finish early, Jones’ wrestling and experience in five-round fights could tilt the fight in his favor, potentially earning a decision victory or a late submission.
Final Verdict: 55% Jon Jones by Decision or Submission, 45% Alex Pereira by KO/TKO.
Jones’ grappling and experience in longer fights give him a slight edge, but Pereira’s explosive power and fight IQ make an early knockout a very real possibility.
but yeah I don't think any poster can add something new to what was said unless it is heavy MMA expert/analyst of the highest level... Which I don't think we have here.
