Political Betting Thread

This Cruz sex scandal shit can't be good for him. Even if it's gossipy bullshit (It's the national enquirer after all) a lot of people believe it anyway, and the story does seem to have some merit from what I've read. My Rubio bet is dead in the water all I have alive are super small Romney and Kasich bets and a Kasich vp nom bet left so this doesn't really matter to me but thought I'd share.

This article in particular is pretty interesting:

http://theconservativetreehouse.com...irer-runs-story-of-multiple-ted-cruz-affairs/
Thanks for posting that. I had no idea.

This has the potential to do a lot of damage to Cruz. Evangelical types probably won't tolerate that kind of behavior. What were your prices on the Romney and Kasich bets?
 
Thanks for posting that. I had no idea.

This has the potential to do a lot of damage to Cruz. Evangelical types probably won't tolerate that kind of behavior. What were your prices on the Romney and Kasich bets?

No prob, yeah it has the potential to ruin his career if it's true, especially given the platform he's running on.

I got Kasich at +4500 and took Romney at +3500 both small. I actually have more on Kasich vp nom and at a shittier price than it is now (have him at +300, up to 440 now). Most of my money was unfortunately on Rubio and at terrible prices but if Kasich somehow pulls this out of his ass or at least gets the vp nom, then I'll be okay.

Trump obviously still coming out of this ordeal looking good if this does indeed become a shit storm for Cruz. It'll be interesting to see how all this plays out, the source isn't exactly reliable but they did break the news on Edwards awhile back so maybe there's something to this too, who knows.
 
Trump is crashing and burning in Wisconsin. The 'scandal' hurt him more than it did Cruz and saying he'd support punishment for women who sought abortions probably didn't help things either. Playing Cruz+Bernie in Wisconsin.
 
Why do you think that happened?

The hits he's taken lately probably making it seem as if a convention is much more likely and nobody really knows what's going to happen there for sure. The other candidates appear to have a huge advantage when it comes to playing the delegates too (if it matters).

I think it's a fine bet, I'm hitting it as a hedge on my original Not Trump bets. I'm still far more invested in Not Trump (have some sizable parlays linked to that as the last leg).
 
The hits he's taken lately probably making it seem as if a convention is much more likely and nobody really knows what's going to happen there for sure. The other candidates appear to have a huge advantage when it comes to playing the delegates too (if it matters).

I think it's a fine bet, I'm hitting it as a hedge on my original Not Trump bets. I'm still far more invested in Not Trump (have some sizable parlays linked to that as the last leg).

-130 has nice value imo.
 
I don't bet politics, but if I did, here is what I would do:

1. Wait for Cruz to win Wisconsin on Tuesday. I think Cruz will probably win by a nice margin. This will cause people to bet NOT Trump. Trump to win nom might fall near evens.

2. Play Trump at evens.

3. Wait for the contests of April 19 and 26, which I expect Trump to dominate. NOT Trump should fall to decent dog odds.

4. Freeroll.
 
I don't bet politics, but if I did, here is what I would do:

1. Wait for Cruz to win Wisconsin on Tuesday. I think Cruz will probably win by a nice margin. This will cause people to bet NOT Trump. Trump to win nom might fall near evens.

2. Play Trump at evens.

3. Wait for the contests of April 19 and 26, which I expect Trump to dominate. NOT Trump should fall to decent dog odds.

4. Freeroll.
I'm in a weird spot. I have Trump winning the nom at roughly -200 average

BUT I have all these which cover a Trump loss + more

Cruz wins nomination +1000/ pres +3000

Kasich wins nomination +4450

Paul wins nomination +3000
 
I'm in a weird spot. I have Trump winning the nom at roughly -200 average

BUT I have all these which cover a Trump loss + more

Cruz wins nomination +1000/ pres +3000

Kasich wins nomination +4450

Paul wins nomination +3000
Sounds like you have your bases covered unless the RNC pulls some really sketchy moves and nominates a Romney-like character. Very unlikely imo.
 
It's looking less and less likely that Trump wins the nomination. It's almost as if he's self-sabatoging himself at this point and it certainly gives credence to his former campaign worker who suggested he never wanted to win to begin with and that he aimed to be a protest candidate that would finish in second so he could use it to build his brand, suggest he could have run the White House.

I don't see value in Trump -130. If he loses Wisconsin it is highly unlikely that he secures enough delegates to win the nomination and he will not win at a brokered convention. Trump was well ahead in Wisconsin - When have we ever seen a front runner have a week like this so late in the race? I am seriously thinking he doesn't want it. His comments this week were just ridiculous even for his standards; Trump is smarter than that, don't let him fool you.

When Cruz handily wins Wisconsin tomorrow Trump to win the nomination will be at dog odds. Even with dominant showings across the East it will be very difficult for Trump to win the nomination on the first ballot.

The RNC Chair suggested that one of the three men running will be the nominee. Paul Ryan has also suggested today, again, that he doesn't want it and he will not be the nominee. He said he believes the nominee should be someone who was running all the way from Iowa.

I'm probably going to play Kasich at this point. I can't imagine Cruz's recent support carries over when being the 'Anti-Trump' is negligible. There is literally nothing else redeeming about Cruz to his peers. His endorsements have come solely because he is not Donald Trump. The Establishment will use Kasich's strong polling against Hillary to justify running him. I think Trump would revert back to being a disgruntled celebrity and blame the media and establishment for his loss, probably write a sequel to his Crippled America book. I doubt he'll even run as an Independent.

On a side note, how crazy is it that Hillary went from -1150 to -350 to win New York over Sanders? That's insane.
 
Does Sanders have a good shot to be President? I just want weed nationally legalized
 
Does Sanders have a good shot to be President? I just want weed nationally legalized

Not if you listen to the media. He's behind, but he still has a shot. If he could manage an upset in New York that would be huge and could be a turning point. From a betting perspective, if you're backing Sanders then I think it makes sense to bet him to win the Presidency over the nomination. If he wins the nomination I think he would do incredibly well in a general election.
 
It's looking less and less likely that Trump wins the nomination. It's almost as if he's self-sabatoging himself at this point and it certainly gives credence to his former campaign worker who suggested he never wanted to win to begin with and that he aimed to be a protest candidate that would finish in second so he could use it to build his brand, suggest he could have run the White House.

I don't see value in Trump -130. If he loses Wisconsin it is highly unlikely that he secures enough delegates to win the nomination and he will not win at a brokered convention. Trump was well ahead in Wisconsin - When have we ever seen a front runner have a week like this so late in the race? I am seriously thinking he doesn't want it. His comments this week were just ridiculous even for his standards; Trump is smarter than that, don't let him fool you.

When Cruz handily wins Wisconsin tomorrow Trump to win the nomination will be at dog odds. Even with dominant showings across the East it will be very difficult for Trump to win the nomination on the first ballot.

The RNC Chair suggested that one of the three men running will be the nominee. Paul Ryan has also suggested today, again, that he doesn't want it and he will not be the nominee. He said he believes the nominee should be someone who was running all the way from Iowa.

I'm probably going to play Kasich at this point. I can't imagine Cruz's recent support carries over when being the 'Anti-Trump' is negligible. There is literally nothing else redeeming about Cruz to his peers. His endorsements have come solely because he is not Donald Trump. The Establishment will use Kasich's strong polling against Hillary to justify running him. I think Trump would revert back to being a disgruntled celebrity and blame the media and establishment for his loss, probably write a sequel to his Crippled America book. I doubt he'll even run as an Independent.

On a side note, how crazy is it that Hillary went from -1150 to -350 to win New York over Sanders? That's insane.

I agree that it's an open question whether Trump actually wants the job. If he does want it, I think it will be very hard to deny him. Cruz is unelectable, is hated among Republicans, and the sex scandal is a ticking time bomb. Kasich has only 143 delegates. Maybe he will hit 300 before the convention. Will enough delegates really defect to get him to 1237?

I see value on Trump.
 
Not if you listen to the media. He's behind, but he still has a shot. If he could manage an upset in New York that would be huge and could be a turning point. From a betting perspective, if you're backing Sanders then I think it makes sense to bet him to win the Presidency over the nomination. If he wins the nomination I think he would do incredibly well in a general election.

I basically agree with this. The only Republican I can see beating Sanders easily is Kasich. Value is on Sanders to be prez.
 
I agree that it's an open question whether Trump actually wants the job. If he does want it, I think it will be very hard to deny him. Cruz is unelectable, is hated among Republicans, and the sex scandal is a ticking time bomb.

I don't think anyone believes the sex scandal is a real thing. The timing was good but Trump and/or his chums at the Enquirer really went overboard on making it totally unbelievable (and the Enquirer's a pretty bad source despite their one real story that one time). It looked like it was assembled by a high-school rumormonger.

I still concede that Trump should have this.
 
Does Sanders have a good shot to be President? I just want weed nationally legalized

I've got him at +1500 to +3000 (to be president) which I think is great. He should be more like +300 to win the Democrat nom and +450 to win the presidency. The media/Dem coalition is against him but it's going to be close.

I also bet him to win NY when it was at +600. Not sure if that was a good bet, I hope so.
 
I don't think anyone believes the sex scandal is a real thing. The timing was good but Trump and/or his chums at the Enquirer really went overboard on making it totally unbelievable (and the Enquirer's a pretty bad source despite their one real story that one time). It looked like it was assembled by a high-school rumormonger.

I still concede that Trump should have this.

I believe the sex scandal is a real thing, though that doesn't mean it will ever be exposed. Cruz and Carpenter got matching tattoos on the same day in 2014, Carpenter's Twitter referred to Cruz as "Daddy", and Team Rubio has a video which is purported to show Cruz and Carpenter coming out of a DC hotel alone together.

NE exposed John Edwards, Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson. before anyone else, but they also have a record of unsubstantiated allegations.
 
Last edited:
I've got him at +1500 to +3000 (to be president) which I think is great. He should be more like +300 to win the Democrat nom and +450 to win the presidency. The media/Dem coalition is against him but it's going to be close.

I also bet him to win NY when it was at +600. Not sure if that was a good bet, I hope so.

Barring the FBI destroying Clinton's candidacy, I think he should be +1000 to win nom.

I don't see how the arithmetic works out for him. He needs to win by big margins in the upcoming states and I don't see it happening unless FBI kills Clinton.
 
Here is a really nice tool for estimating Trump's chances. Using the tool, my best guess is 1209 delegates for Trump.
 
Back
Top