Political Betting Thread

Trump looking strong in AZ with less than 1% reporting. I think he'll win it and therefore get all 58 delegates.
 
From 538 blog (paraphrasing):

So far, in AZ, more people have voted for candidates who have already dropped out than have voted for Cruz. Apparently there is a culture of early/absentee voting in AZ. A bunch of people voted for Rubio not expecting him to drop out. Votes can't be changed after sent in. Would be hilarious if Rubio beat Cruz in AZ.
 
AZ called for Trump. That was fast. My bets are looking good!
 
Any reason not to hammer Democrats win presidency at -200? The odds keep getting worse with Trump looking more and more like the Republican nominee. I can't fathom any way Trump flips enough states that went blue in 2012 to win.
 
KP6982 said:
Any reason not to hammer Democrats win presidency at -200? The odds keep getting worse with Trump looking more and more like the Republican nominee. I can't fathom any way Trump flips enough states that went blue in 2012 to win.
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I see it differently. I think Trump v. Clinton with no 3rd party challenge is very bad for Clinton. The debates will be the most watched in US history by a huge margin. Clinton's debate style relies on preparation. Trump's attacks will be hard to prepare for. Also, Trump will run to Clinton's left on key issues such as foreign policy (he will bash her for her Iraq war vote) and health care (I think he will call for single payer, which Clinton has rejected).

Basically, I think there's a great chance that the head-to-head polling gap narrows dramatically as Trump begins aiming his weapons at Clinton. Finally, although I think it's unlikely, an FBI recommendation for a Clinton indictment would hand the presidency to Trump.
 
If you would have told me a couple years ago that Donald Trump had a good chance of being President, I'd have laughed in your face. Golf Digest did an issue with him in 2014 and it was basically poking fun of how much he lies and exaggerates. This is a guy that has given millions to golf, yet he's so outlandish that they couldn't resist. Now he's got a good chance to run this country?
 
It is pretty wild that he is a viable candidate. Certainly has made this election more interesting. And scary.

But I was going more off the electorate map. He's going to have to flip at least 6 states that went blue in 2012. I could see him winning Nevada and Colorado but even him also getting Ohio and Florida leaves him short. That's simply a big ask for a candidate who has offended damn near every group that isn't a white male.
 
Take a little stab at Kasich wins Pennsylvania +250.


@waiguoren What % chance do you give Trump of winning the nomination as of right now? I added a little to my -160 with -290
 
KP6982 said:
It is pretty wild that he is a viable candidate. Certainly has made this election more interesting. And scary.

But I was going more off the electorate map. He's going to have to flip at least 6 states that went blue in 2012. I could see him winning Nevada and Colorado but even him also getting Ohio and Florida leaves him short. That's simply a big ask for a candidate who has offended damn near every group that isn't a white male.
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You are absolutely correct to try to look at the big states and swing states. My analysis is not that refined at this juncture since I feel we are too far from November for the head-to-head state polls to have much meaning.

Also you are correct that his unfavorable ratings are unprecedented for a major party's candidate and this will be a lot to overcome. But put it this way: if Trump weren't in the race, everyone would be talking about how Clinton is unelectable based on her horrible unfavorable ratings.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Take a little stab at Kasich wins Pennsylvania +250.


@waiguoren What % chance do you give Trump of winning the nomination as of right now? I added a little to my -160 with -290
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Kasich bet is smart. I am surprised he is polling so well there.

I'm going to turn the question around on you. Do you think Trump actually wants to be president? If the answer is yes, I think 95%. Here is my reasoning. There are two main cases.

Case 1: Trump reaches 1237. Chance: 45%.

Case 2: Trump fails to reach 1237 but comes within 150 delegates. Chance: 50%.
Case 2a: At the contested convention, Trump insists on being the nominee, threatens to run 3rd party if not given the nomination. Party gives it to him.
Case 2b: Trump doesn't actually want to be president, uses his delegate lead to extract business/self-promotion concessions from influential Party members at Cleveland convention, allows Cruz or someone else to be nominee, does not run 3rd Party.

So it all comes down to the conditional probabilities P(2a|2) and P(2b|2).

Yes, this is a way of dodging the question since I have no clue if Trump actually wants this. I know he was cozy with the Clintons in recent history so I wouldn't be surprised if this is all an act of some kind.
 
Oblivian said:
If you would have told me a couple years ago that Donald Trump had a good chance of being President, I'd have laughed in your face. Golf Digest did an issue with him in 2014 and it was basically poking fun of how much he lies and exaggerates. This is a guy that has given millions to golf, yet he's so outlandish that they couldn't resist. Now he's got a good chance to run this country?
Click to expand...

He only has a good chance because the Dems are going to field an extremely weak candidate. She is getting all she can handle from Bernie Sanders. Think about that. Literally any of the other Dems who tried to run this cycle would beat Trump imo. That includes Sanders.
 
Oblivian said:
If you would have told me a couple years ago that Donald Trump had a good chance of being President, I'd have laughed in your face. Golf Digest did an issue with him in 2014 and it was basically poking fun of how much he lies and exaggerates. This is a guy that has given millions to golf, yet he's so outlandish that they couldn't resist. Now he's got a good chance to run this country?
Click to expand...

Even if Trump loses, the country has still taken a giant L for even entertaining the idea of him getting this close to winning........

I have a bet on Bernie +2800 back in New Years for shits and giggles lol.

12/31/15 1:40am $50.00 $1,400.00
Pending 11/8/16 6:00am Politics Other Sports 105 Bernie Sanders wins Election +2800* vs Field wins Presidential Election
 
KP6982 said:
Any reason not to hammer Democrats win presidency at -200?
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I think this has a lot of value. Republican voter % is a small portion of the total voter pie. I do not feel the Repub candidates are connecting with the citizens nationally. I see the dem candidates are way stronger.

Look at these people who are supporting Trump, since it seems he'll win their Nom. it's these types of Southern, white what they called 175 years ago 'Nationalists'. I'd like to hear some opposing opinions that think this coalition can be made broad enough to find value in a bet. I see the democrat campaign reaching all four corners of the country, to a broad base of different voters. Can Trump campaign appeal across a diverse array of people?
 
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is it possible kasich could be fishing for VP? I would of thought his voters would be more likely to go for drumpf if it doesn't look like going to a convention, atm it seems he's almost like drumpf's insurance policy to take away support from cruz in key states.
 
Jack Scrapper said:
I think this has a lot of value. Republican voter % is a small portion of the total voter pie. I do not feel the Repub candidates are connecting with the citizens nationally. I see the dem candidates are way stronger.

Look at these people who are supporting Trump, since it seems he'll win their Nom. it's these types of Southern, white what they called 175 years ago 'Nationalists'.
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What is your evidence that Clinton is "connecting with the citizens nationally"? She loses head-to-head against John Kasich and Ted Cruz. The former has very poor name recognition and the latter is hated by seemingly everyone except evangelical types. Even her supporters seem lukewarm about her, and her unfavorable ratings among the general electorate would be setting records if Trump weren't in the race.

As for your second point, I disagree that Trump's supporters are limited to the South. Trump has done well in the South, the North, and the Southwest. He has won states as diverse as Michigan, New Hampshire, Florida and Arizona by solid margins. He will also do well on the Pacific Coast.
 
The owner of our company is fairly rich and most of his friends are wealthy Republicans. My office is right next to his so I hear a lot of what goes on there. When Trump first started his candidacy, they were all talking about how outlandish he is and how they can't imagine him as president. Fast forward to now, and they will vote for Trump if it comes down to Trump vs. Hillary. I think you are going to find that a lot of Republicans will vote Trump even if they can't stand him.
 
Waigerin, you're talking about some unnamed polls to say Hillary wouldn't completely demolish Kasich or Cruz in a general election. They are not the same thing, please think this through.

And Trump supporters are quite limited, trust me on this.
 
Roads55 said:
is it possible kasich could be fishing for VP? I would of thought his voters would be more likely to go for drumpf if it doesn't look like going to a convention, atm it seems he's almost like drumpf's insurance policy to take away support from cruz in key states.
Click to expand...

Kasich would be a lock for Republican VP if he expressed desire to take the position. Thus far he's claimed no interest (repeatedly).

As far as Hillary/Trump, I would think either Dem beats Trump but Trump's message resonates particularly well against a backdrop of establishment Hillary. Trump certainly wouldn't lose anyone that has voted for him thus far. On the other hand, he's an inept debater that would be even further exposed in a 2-person match and he has much, much thinner skin than Hillary.

Also, despite his contrary rhetoric, the media has fed the Trump engine up to this point. He would probably get hit from all angles in the final showdown considering the power of the Clintons.
 
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Bad news for Trump. Cruz +5 in Wisconsin. The wife meme re-tweet was a huge mistake.
 
This Cruz sex scandal shit can't be good for him. Even if it's gossipy bullshit (It's the national enquirer after all) a lot of people believe it anyway, and the story does seem to have some merit from what I've read. My Rubio bet is dead in the water all I have alive are super small Romney and Kasich bets and a Kasich vp nom bet left so this doesn't really matter to me but thought I'd share.

This article in particular is pretty interesting:

http://theconservativetreehouse.com...irer-runs-story-of-multiple-ted-cruz-affairs/
 
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