My American friends - is Trump for Republican nominee @ -110 a solid bet? Cruz is +200. When will nominees be revealed?
TLDR is
1. The nominees are not officially declared until the Cleveland convention in mid-late July.
2. I cannot determine if there is value on Trump or Cruz at these odds because of reasons outlined below.
3. If I were in your position I would try to freeroll by taking Trump now and NOT Trump in the days after April 26 when Trump will have huge momentum.
----------------------------------------
The nominees are not officially declared until the Cleveland convention in mid-late July. If any candidate reaches 1237 pledged delegates before that, you will see Trump's odds shoot to -1000 or worse. That's because, according to the current Republican National Committee(RNC) rules, any candidate with the support of more than half of the 2472 convention delegates at the Cleveland convention wins the nomination. The only caveat is that the RNC could theoretically change its rules before the convention to allow some of those pledged delegates to change their affiliation. In my opinion, this risks destroying the Party permanently, and I view it as unlikely.
Each state or territory has its own process for awarding numbers of delegates. Some states have primaries, some have caucuses. Some states award all state delegates to the person who wins the most primary or caucus votes, while other states have more complicated formulas. The rules for each state are available at
www.thegreenpapers.com .
Beyond just choosing numbers of delegates, another bit of complexity comes from the process of choosing the delegates themselves. Remember, delegates are people! In some states, primary voters vote for delegates directly. Maryland and New York are examples of this. I have a friend in NYC who plans to vote for Sanders. On my friend's primary ballot, he has a choice of three or four different delegates, all of whom are pledged to support Sanders on a first ballot. The ballot even notes "(Sanders)" after the delegate's name. But in most states, voters do not choose delegates directly. The delegates are chosen after the primary/caucus at a state/local conventions. It is at these conventions that non-democratic forces can come into play.
If no one reaches the "magic number" of 1237 before Cleveland, and barring a rule change as described above, then the contest will go to a 2nd vote. In this 2nd vote, some of the previously bound delegates can change their votes. It's important to remember that these delegates are people, not just numbers. Many have their own preferences, and some might be "persuadable" with favors. Why can only some of them change their vote after the first ballot? Remember that the delegates come from more than 50 different states and territories, each with its own rules about delegate behavior.
Also, on the Republican side, no matter how a state or territory chooses its delegates, the RNC gets to choose 3 of the delegates. You can bet that most of these delegates will jump ship on Trump as soon as they are allowed to---for some states it will be after the first ballot, for others after the second, etc.
So in the event of a "contested convention" in which no one gets 1237 or more on the first ballot, the behavior of the delegates becomes the main question.
By most accounts, Cruz is way ahead of Trump in the battle for the allegiances of these delegates on a second or third ballot.
In my opinion, the most fruitful way to analyze the situation is to begin with an estimate of final pledged delegate count pre-convention. My estimate is that Trump will earn about 1200 delegates pre-convention. Will the delegates deny Trump if he comes so close? For me this is new ground. I used to say no, but I'm not sure anymore in light of some of the things I'm reading.
Another important factor is momentum. I expect Trump to win six of the next six primaries. Included in is New York, a large state with a lot of delegates and with a lot of media focus. Along with such victories will come fawning media coverage and herd mentality. These things can influence the contests in upcoming, more competitive states such as Indiana.
