Political Betting Thread

[jerryisgood]

I'm still hoping Bernie can pull a rabbit out of his hat. If Independents could vote, man, this primary would be a completely different animal. The crowd that he had in Prospect Park on Sunday was incredible.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Where in NY are you from? I'm from Brooklyn New York and I can say definitively that NYC hates Ted Cruz, the Post hates him, the NYPD hates him. The Daily News denounced him before endorsing Kasich. He's not even campaigning here anymore. He was ignored during the GOP gala dinner the other night, people mingled and ate during his speech. Protestors wouldn't let him speak in the Bronx. Recent polls seem to show some of Cruz's "support" moving towards Kasich and Trump with Cruz falling to the low teens, and Kasich and Trump moving to the mid 20s and 50s respectively.

I don't know, we'll see what happens, BOL! It should be an exciting day. Where in New York are you located? I'm not going to make it out to the polls until late tomorrow.

I'm like 50 miles or so up the Hudson River from NYC in Orange County (I can take the train directly to Yankee Stadium/Grand Central)

For sure, though. NYC is where Cruz is hated the most/Donald is loved the most. I'm more hoping for support from upstate. I personally wasn't that offended by Cruz' "New York values" comment. I just laughed at him. I don't even like the guy, nor am I a Republican. Anyway, recent polls show Kasich and Cruz fairly close. I'm expecting to lose the bet, but I like the odds.

I hope Bernie wins, too

 

[waiguoren]

What's Trump to win nomination at now? Was I right about a freeroll being available?

 

[jerryisgood]

What's Trump to win nomination at now? Was I right about a freeroll being available?

-190 / +165 - Yesterday didn't change all that much, the results were pretty much as expected and already 'baked in' when considering Trump's potential to win the nomination. Still think it's first ballot or bust for Trump.

 

[waiguoren]

-190 / +165 - Yesterday didn't change all that much, the results were pretty much as expected and already 'baked in' when considering Trump's potential to win the nomination. Still think it's first ballot or bust for Trump.

Ok, so the freeroll was available. I remember people here quoting -110 after Wisconsin. Seems a clear case of the markets behaving irrationality since the results in both states were more or less expected.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Does anybody have thoughts on the Democratic Rhode Island primary? I have been playing both sides with + odds, but I'd like to know who you guys think will win

 

[waiguoren]

Does anybody have thoughts on the Democratic Rhode Island primary? I have been playing both sides with + odds, but I'd like to know who you guys think will win

Last poll on RCP was done almost two months ago. Showed Clinton +9. Sanders gained a lot of momentum since, but then NY happened.

 

[waiguoren]

First Indiana polls just came out. Both show Trump ahead in the single digits. This is a very important piece of the puzzle on Trump's quest to 1237. 30 delegates to the statewide winner and 3 to each of the 9 congressional district winners. If Trump wins by a large majority of delegates here, I expect him to get to 1237 without much trouble.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Does anybody have a good read on the Pennsylvania Democratic primary? I have been playing the spread on 5d and BM, 1u Bernie +13 +200 and .75u Bernie +14.5 -150, respectively. Not sure what to do from here. That +14.5 line is still up, the +13 is down to +155

 

[edole]

Does anybody have a good read on the Pennsylvania Democratic primary? I have been playing the spread on 5d and BM, 1u Bernie +13 +200 and .75u Bernie +14.5 -150, respectively. Not sure what to do from here. That +14.5 line is still up, the +13 is down to +155

Does that mean +13 percentage points?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Does that mean +13 percentage points?

Yeah

 

[edole]

Yeah

That seems like an awful lot.

Granted it is a closed primary like in new york, but the deadline to register as a dem or Gop was only like 6 weeks ago. I think bernie does much better in pa than he did in new york.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

That seems like an awful lot.

Granted it is a closed primary like in new york, but the deadline to register as a dem or Gop was only like 6 weeks ago. I think bernie does much better in pa than he did in new york.

I think he does better than expected too

 

[waiguoren]

Does anybody have thoughts on the Democratic Rhode Island primary? I have been playing both sides with + odds, but I'd like to know who you guys think will win

Looking good for Clinton. New poll from Brown U. has Clinton +9 with just 2 days left.

 

[waiguoren]

Does anybody have a good read on the Pennsylvania Democratic primary? I have been playing the spread on 5d and BM, 1u Bernie +13 +200 and .75u Bernie +14.5 -150, respectively. Not sure what to do from here. That +14.5 line is still up, the +13 is down to +155

Newest polls have Clinton +8 and Clinton +15.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yeah, I saw all those polls earlier. I think I like my positions. Hoping I made he right plays for PA

 

[waiguoren]

Indiana is going to be super interesting on the GOP side.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yeah, I saw all those polls earlier. I think I like my positions. Hoping I made he right plays for PA

How do you think it'll play out?

 

[waiguoren]

I expect Trump will win Indiana. He has the polling edge now and he will have another big winning day tomorrow to increase momentum going into Indiana.

 

[waiguoren]

I expect Trump will win Indiana. He has the polling edge now and he will have another big winning day tomorrow to increase momentum going into Indiana.

The gamesmanship has just been elevated. Shortly after posting this I see the news that Kasich is not competing in Indiana and throwing his support behind Cruz. If all Kasich's supporters turn out for Cruz in Indiana, Cruz will win there. But then most of Kasich's supporters probably don't like Cruz. Very interesting.