Political Betting Thread

[waiguoren]

This is NOT including the unbound delegates in PA as well? 20-someodd PA delegates who are unbound have said that they plan on supporting Trump on the first ballot while another 15 or so said they would support whomever wins their district, which is likely Trump. Two have said they would support Cruz with others undecided.

Also, in your calcs, are you giving him Indiana?

Even only giving Trump 17 from PA I can get him to 1237 pretty easily. But I expect Trump to get over 40 in PA. I give him 42 in Indiana and 126 in CA because I think the momentum favors him big-time. Also he has poured a lot of resources into Indiana over the past month. Lots of ads and schmoozing with Republican big-wigs.

My estimates put him well over 1237 with a nice cushion on the first ballot.

 

[waiguoren]

Trump to be president is at +300? I would take that now, as a potential freeroll if nothing else. Biggest concern for me is that conservatives run a strong 3rd party candidate. Bill Kristol has been talking about it quite a bit.

 

[jerryisgood]

Even only giving Trump 17 from PA I can get him to 1237 pretty easily. But I expect Trump to get over 40 in PA. I give him 42 in Indiana and 126 in CA because I think the momentum favors him big-time. Also he has poured a lot of resources into Indiana over the past month. Lots of ads and schmoozing with Republican big-wigs.

My estimates put him well over 1237 with a nice cushion on the first ballot.

How do your calculations add up if Cruz wins Indiana?

 

[waiguoren]

How do your calculations add up if Cruz wins Indiana?

Depends how many of the 9 districts you give Cuz. If Cruz gets 6/9 districts he will get 30+6*3=48 delegates from Indiana, leaving Trump with 9. Then my calculation has Trump at 1227 without counting extra PA delegates or any of the uncommitted delegates. In this case he will still make 1237 without trouble.

BTW, I am giving him 24/44 in Washington and 15/28 in Oregon.

 

[waiguoren]

As predicted, momentum is helping Trump out west. New Oregon poll has Trump 43 Cruz 26 Kasich 17 Undecided 13. The crazy thing is that Cruz/Kasich agreed that Oregon is Kasich's territory, yet Cruz is ahead of Kasich. Only 17% of those polled said they'd heard of Kasich! Trump has the highest favorabillity rating of all three candidates.

 

[jerryisgood]

Cruz closed the gap in Indiana with the Carly announcement, down only two points behind Trump. Governor Pence was going to refrain from endorsing a candidate, but is now going to endorse Cruz in about an hour. That endorsement will likely boost Cruz ahead.

Edit: With Trump only being up by 2 points (within the 4 point margin of error) and with the Pence endorsement I'm taking a stab at NOT Trump in Indiana at +280.

 

[waiguoren]

Cruz closed the gap in Indiana with the Carly announcement, down only two points behind Trump. Governor Pence was going to refrain from endorsing a candidate, but is now going to endorse Cruz in about an hour. That endorsement will likely boost Cruz ahead.

Edit: With Trump only being up by 2 points (within the 4 point margin of error) and with the Pence endorsement I'm taking a stab at NOT Trump in Indiana at +280.

Wow, great line. I would take that.

 

[jerryisgood]

Wow, great line. I would take that.

I parlayed with Clinton and feel like I should have played it straight .. Do you see Clinton losing Indiana at all?

 

[jerryisgood]

Ehh maybe I jumped the gun. That was hardly an endorsement. He said he'll be voting for Cruz because of his knowledge of the Constitution but had nothing but kind words for Trump too. Not trying to make enemies out of the Trumpeteers or the Cruz Crew .. Hrmm .. Still kind of like the +280 line but was expecting a more substantial endorsement from Pence.

 

[waiguoren]

These Indiana Republican polls are all over the place. On the same day we have Cruz +16 in one poll and Trump +9, Trump +2 in a couple of other polls. Again, the polling masters have an advantage in deciphering the results and playing the market. I've read that Indiana has legal restrictions on polling that other states don't.

Again, I'm no master of predicting individual states, but I think it will be slightly odd if Clinton loses Indiana. All the polls show her winning there.

 

[waiguoren]

Ehh maybe I jumped the gun. That was hardly an endorsement. He said he'll be voting for Cruz because of his knowledge of the Constitution but had nothing but kind words for Trump too. Not trying to make enemies out of the Trumpeteers or the Cruz Crew .. Hrmm .. Still kind of like the +280 line but was expecting a more substantial endorsement from Pence.

New Indiana Poll from WSJ:

Trump 49
Cruz 34
Kasich 13

 

[Jae Gibbz]

New Indiana Poll from WSJ:

Trump 49
Cruz 34
Kasich 13

Good thing I grabbed Trump -120 last night. Regretting not going more cus he's already over -1000

I am betting on him to win Nebraska, tho. +220, +170

 

[waiguoren]

Good thing I grabbed Trump -120 last night. Regretting not going more cus he's already over -1000

I am betting on him to win Nebraska, tho. +220, +170

Wow. Bold move. I think Cruz takes it.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Wow. Bold move. I think Cruz takes it.

I'm just betting it based on Trump probably winning Indiana. The line has already dropped to -110. Should I completely hedge out now/switch sides or something?

 

[waiguoren]

I'm just betting it based on Trump probably winning Indiana. The line has already dropped to -110. Should I completely hedge out now/switch sides or something?

I would freeroll in your situation. Cruz already won Kansas and Oklahoma by good margins. These states are similar to Nebraska. He has won all four states that border Nebraska and have already voted.

BUT

All 4 of those states were caucuses, which favors Cruz. Nebraska is a primary, better for Trump. Still, in Oklahoma's primary, Cruz won all Congressional districts. With no polling at all, I would avoid betting on this state.

 

[waiguoren]

As I pointed out earlier, everyone would be talking about Clinton's ridiculously high unfavorables if Trump weren't in the race. Trump's unfavorables are probably the highest for a presumptive major party candidate in the history of the nation.

Prediction: Trump's unfavorables will come down significantly over the next six months.

 

[waiguoren]

And to anyone who doubts that momentum is a real thing in politics, we now have new polls showing Trump with a large lead in Indiana and a huge lead in California. How can you explain the change other than as a result of momentum following the huge wins of April 19 and April 26?

If nothing changes, Trump will get the nomination easily.

 

[waiguoren]

@Scythe

Any analysis or upcoming bets?

 

[waiguoren]

As someone who lives in europe I have no fkn idea what super delegates and all that mean.

I got 1.2u early on Trump to win the republican nominee when he was +480. Is it looking good? The odds disappeared from 5dimes so I don't know how the betting world is viewing this election anymore.

Did you ever hedge out of that or anything? Looking good.

 

[waiguoren]

Any reason not to hammer Democrats win presidency at -200? The odds keep getting worse with Trump looking more and more like the Republican nominee. I can't fathom any way Trump flips enough states that went blue in 2012 to win.

Did you end up taking that?