Political Betting Thread

If anything I would expect an unorthodox choice, similar to the Palin pick in 2008. One of the pundits suggested Susana Martinez, the current governor of New Mexico.
 
yeah definitely a bit of pot luck, still think there could be some value in a few of the potentials listed by bookies. could well be a woman, I guess he'll struggle with them more than minorities, need to do some more research. I see the link with martinez and trump's wall, but as you said could take months to decide. interesting market though.

yeah I tend to leave fotn bet's alone too, seems more of a novelty market that I would of thought would lose you more money in the long run with a large enough sample size, occasionally there's probably value though.
 
waiguoren said:
@Roads55

As @Scythe is saying, it's damn near impossible to predict. Reminds me of those people who try to predict the "fight of the night" on UFC events---it's totally up to the whims of the boss.

BTW, looks like Kasich is dropping out.
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<--- I'm one of those people who bet fotn lol. They are profitable btw, if there is no fotn it gets pushed
 
waiguoren said:
Sheesh. Was thinking of violating my own rule on betting politics and dropping 1K on Trump to win the general only to discover it's down to +240. Also 5Dimes limits suck. Bookmaker seems to have removed politics entirely.
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BM takes down their politics section every midnight EST. They bring it back up around noon or 1pm EST, I think. Sometimes it is not up for a short period. As for 5D limits on politics. It's $25-100, usually $50. I noticed it's $25 right when lines open.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
BM takes down their politics section every midnight EST. They bring it back up around noon or 1pm EST, I think. Sometimes it is not up for a short period. As for 5D limits on politics. It's $25-100, usually $50. I noticed it's $25 right when lines open.
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Ah...thank you!
 
Prediction:

Donald Trump will be the next President.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Just got my not Cruz Nebraska's at 1u +220, 1u +170 :)


That's your official prediction now?
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Nebraska was called already???

That's my official prediction. Biggest concern is a third-party conservative candidate splitting the vote. Here are the factors I'm looking at:

The head-to-head polls in key swing states (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania) are already tight. Trump leads Clinton in PA, where the Republicans haven't won since 1988. Despite Trump's relative weakness throughout the nation, he is very strong in rustbelt industrial/manufacturing states---lucky for him, many of the swing states fit this profile. He is also strong in Florida due to the large number of white retirees there.

Trump has barely started attacking Clinton. He will gets tons of free media for his Clinton attacks because he is much better for ratings than Clinton. Trump is a natural, Clinton is scripted. Trump's outsider status is a big plus in this cycle---many voters are tired of Washington politicians. The e-mail controversy will continue to plague Clinton.

Against almost any other candidate (Sanders included), I would not favor Trump. His unfavorables are astounding. But Clinton's unfavorables are also striking.

Don't know where it stands now, but I saw Trump to be prez at +300 a couple weeks ago. I know I recommended it back then, but now I think it's pure gold with the new polls out.
 
I dont follow US politics closely but i think Trump is next PUSA.
 
I put $5 on Trump at 25:1 odds right after his first speech lol, also had $50 at 3:1 that he's the Republican nominee. So far so good.
 
TreeOfWoe said:
I put $5 on Trump at 25:1 odds right after his first speech lol, also had $50 at 3:1 that he's the Republican nominee. So far so good.
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25:1 was for nomination or for presidency?

Either way, well done!
 
waiguoren said:
25:1 was for nomination or for presidency?

Either way, well done!
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Presidency unfortunately. I still regret not putting a bit more on that, but I pretty much made that bet as a joke at that time...
 
TreeOfWoe said:
Presidency unfortunately. I still regret not putting a bit more on that, but I pretty much made that bet as a joke at that time...
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Ha. Well I still think your bet has an excellent chance of cashing.
 
Hmmm, Trump going for like +150 on PredictIt, but he's +275 on 5d. Had to take that

If you were wondering Waig, the limit is $500. I checked for you lol
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Hmmm, Trump going for like +150 on PredictIt, but he's +275 on 5d. Had to take that

If you were wondering Waig, the limit is $500. I checked for you lol
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$500 for you, probably $100 or less for me. Not sure why they limit me so hard on politics.
 
waiguoren said:
$500 for you, probably $100 or less for me. Not sure why they limit me so hard on politics.
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I don't think so... My limit is usually $100 too. Either $25, $50 or $100 depending on how long the lines have been out. Trump for pres has been out for ever. So the limit is $500.
 
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