Political Betting Thread

Prediction:

Trump: Illinois, Florida, Missouri (close, could go to Cruz)

Kasich: Ohio
 
FML. Hillary wins MO with less than 1% of the vote left
 
Skipped yesterday aside from Kasich Ohio. Have also been parlaying/betting the single nominee at convention line (as a hedge to my not Trump nominee bets). I don't think Trump's stoppable anymore and the odds were much better than Trump straight. It would be pretty awful for me if this gets to the convention and they choose Trump.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
FML. Hillary wins MO with less than 1% of the vote left
Click to expand...
We won't know who won MO for at least another month. Clinton currently leads by about 1500 votes, but absentee/military ballots and provisional ballots still haven't been counted. It will take a month for the official MO results to be released. Even after the official totals are released, Sanders is entitled to a recount since the margin was so thin.
 
Scythe said:
It would be pretty awful for me if this gets to the convention and they choose Trump.
Click to expand...

I have played with the numbers a bit.

Trump is at 673 right now. He needs 1237. Most remaining states are winner-take-all or winner-take-most.

Assuming he wins Connecticut, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island (give him 50% delegates), Indiana, West Virginia, and New Jersey, he will be at 1110.

There are very good reasons to think he will win all those states.

Give him 10 of NM's delegates and he's at 1120.

Let's give him 35% in Oregon---28 delegates * .35= 9.8 so say 9. That makes 1129.

I expect him to lose Utah, Nebraska, Washington, South Dakota, Montana.

Hard states to predict are Arizona, Wisconsin and California. The first two vote very soon and offer 58 and 42 delegates, respectively. CA is the last state to vote. If he wins both AZ and WI, that's 100 more delegates for a total of 1229.

I do not believe the GOP will deny Trump the nomination if he makes it to 1229. On the other hand, losing CA, AZ and WI would leave hiim around 1129, which might be deniable...but then who are they going to give it to? Cruz? They hate him just as much.

TLDR is sorry but Trump is still not guaranteed to have it wrapped up by convention time. Nevertheless it is very hard to see him failing to get the nomination.
 
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waiguoren said:
We won't know who won MO for at least another month. Clinton currently leads by about 1500 votes, but absentee/military ballots and provisional ballots still haven't been counted. It will take a month for the official MO results to be released. Even after the official totals are released, Sanders is entitled to a recount since the margin was so thin.
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Yeah. I jumped the gun a little bit, but it's not looking good, regardless. Bernie is sitting around +500 right now and I'll have my $ tied up for a while
 
Scythe said:
Skipped yesterday aside from Kasich Ohio. Have also been parlaying/betting the single nominee at convention line (as a hedge to my not Trump nominee bets). I don't think Trump's stoppable anymore and the odds were much better than Trump straight. It would be pretty awful for me if this gets to the convention and they choose Trump.
Click to expand...
Decent news for your hedge. New AZ poll has Trump 31 Cruz 19 Kasich 10. Problem is that leaves 40% undecided.
 
waiguoren said:
Decent news for your hedge. New AZ poll has Trump 31 Cruz 19 Kasich 10. Problem is that leaves 40% undecided.
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Trump doesn't tend to do well with late deciders.

Also, in a recent poll taken asking Rubio backers who they will be backing nearly half of those polls suggested they'd move over to Cruz. Twenty some odd percent would go to Kasich. Less than 18% would go to Trump. As long as it remains a three way race it is possible that Kasich will still play spoiler for Cruz in some closely contested states, however, the added Rubio support may push him in others. If it becomes a two way race, I suspect more of Kasich's following will back Ted than Trump. Nikki Haley endorsed Cruz after Rubio dropped out and some sites are reporting that Jeb Bush will likely be doing the same. This is gonna be a grind!
 
jerryisgood said:
Trump doesn't tend to do well with late deciders.

Also, in a recent poll taken asking Rubio backers who they will be backing nearly half of those polls suggested they'd move over to Cruz. Twenty some odd percent would go to Kasich. Less than 18% would go to Trump. As long as it remains a three way race it is possible that Kasich will still play spoiler for Cruz in some closely contested states, however, the added Rubio support may push him in others. If it becomes a two way race, I suspect more of Kasich's following will back Ted than Trump. Nikki Haley endorsed Cruz after Rubio dropped out and some sites are reporting that Jeb Bush will likely be doing the same. This is gonna be a grind!
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I think a lot of people say they would never support Trump and then do an about-face once their favorite candidate drops out. I also don't see why Kasich's people would go to Cruz over Trump. Both Cruz and Trump are hated by moderate establishment types.

As to whether or not it will be a grind, we will know very soon. AZ votes next week and then WI on the 5th. If Trump wins both it's over.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
FML. Hillary wins MO with less than 1% of the vote left
Click to expand...
Media now reporting that Sanders will not demand a recount since it won't affect the delegate count. Not good news for your bet :(
 
Jae Gibbz said:
FML. Hillary wins MO with less than 1% of the vote left
Click to expand...
Also, the media seems to be misreporting it. I saw multiple outlets claiming that Clinton won MO even though the certified tally won't be ready for weeks. I do think it's unlikely that the outstanding votes will make up for the 1500 vote gap though.
 
waiguoren said:
Any other politics bets coming up?
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Not in the near future.

I do have these bets, though:

Big on Hilary wins presidency -125

Bernie wins presidency +1000

Democrats win presidency -150

NOT Rubio Republican nominee -170

Trump wins Republican nominee -160

Cruz wins Republican nominee +1000
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Not in the near future.

I do have these bets, though:

Big on Hilary wins presidency -125

Bernie wins presidency +1000

Democrats win presidency -150

NOT Rubio Republican nominee -170

Trump wins Republican nominee -160

Cruz wins Republican nominee +1000
Click to expand...

I placed an interesting bet with a local. I have Trump wins presidency at evens with the condition that it's Trump v. Clinton with no serious 3rd party challenge. It's a push if Trump or Clinton aren't the nominees or if someone like Romney runs independent. It's a tiny bet for me but I feel pretty good about it.

Good job on Rubio and Trump nomination bets.
 
I think the anti-Trump protests will help Trump in AZ. Very interested to see Tuesday's results.
 
Cruz will win Utah, but the margin matters. If he gets more than 50% of the statewide vote, he gets all 40 delegates. Otherwise, the 40 delegates will be allocated proportionally among Cruz/Trump/Kasich. Trump will get maybe 4 delegates, Cruz maybe 18, Kasich maybe 10. This is why it makes sense for Trump to campaign in Utah even though he will lose. He hopes to stop Cruz from getting all 40 delegates.

Another interesting tidbit: online voting is in place.
 
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