Political Betting Thread

LEMONZEST said:
only line I see on 5d realted to Oklahamo is as follows:

Oklahoma Primary - Republican Winner
Tue 3/1 625 Donald Trump wins Oklahoma Primary -1065
6:00AM 626 Field wins Oklahoma Primary +555

should I hit the field wins line at +555?
Click to expand...
No, don't do it man. That is for the Republicans. 5d took the Democratics line down
 
LEMONZEST said:
only line I see on 5d realted to Oklahamo is as follows:

Oklahoma Primary - Republican Winner
Tue 3/1 625 Donald Trump wins Oklahoma Primary -1065
6:00AM 626 Field wins Oklahoma Primary +555

should I hit the field wins line at +555?
Click to expand...
I give Trump a 90% chance in OK.
 
Super Tuesday action. Basically most of these bets are already hedged and I'm thinking about doing some more hedging. These are not finalized, but are very close to it



-171 Donald Trump wins Georgia = 1.80u for 1.07u

-195 Donald Trump wins Virginia = 3.62u for 1.85u

-330 Donald Trump wins Massachusetts = 1.98u for 0.60u

-330 Donald Trump wins Vermont = 0.99u for 0.30u

_______________________________________________

+435 Hillary Clinton wins Massachusetts = .85u for 3.70u

+200 Hillary Clinton wins Minnesota = .45u for .90u

+109 Hillary Clinton wins Colorado = .55u for .60u (My worst bet, might basically buy out of it)

+269 Bernie Sanders wins Oklahoma = 3.15u for 8.47u

_______________________________________________

This is not Super Tuesday, but I made the bet basing it on Hillary Clinton doing great on Super Tuesday

+247 Hillary Clinton wins Maine = 2.10u for 5.19u (I can already hedge with Bernie -185)

_________________________________________________

I am thinking about hedging the Oklahoma bet with Hillary +145, hedging the Maine bet, and possibly freerolling the Hillary Massachusetts bet

Thoughts and/or tips?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Super Tuesday action. Basically most of these bets are already hedged and I'm thinking about doing some more hedging. These are not finalized, but are very close to it



-171 Donald Trump wins Georgia = 1.80u for 1.07u

-195 Donald Trump wins Virginia = 3.62u for 1.85u

-330 Donald Trump wins Massachusetts = 1.98u for 0.60u

-330 Donald Trump wins Vermont = 0.99u for 0.30u

_______________________________________________

+435 Hillary Clinton wins Massachusetts = .85u for 3.70u

+200 Hillary Clinton wins Minnesota = .45u for .90u

+109 Hillary Clinton wins Colorado = .55u for .60u (My worst bet, might basically buy out of it)

+269 Bernie Sanders wins Oklahoma = 3.15u for 8.47u

_______________________________________________

This is not Super Tuesday, but I made the bet basing it on Hillary Clinton doing great on Super Tuesday

+247 Hillary Clinton wins Maine = 2.10u for 5.19u (I can already hedge with Bernie -185)

_________________________________________________

I am thinking about hedging the Oklahoma bet with Hillary +145, hedging the Maine bet, and possibly freerolling the Hillary Massachusetts bet

Thoughts and/or tips?
Click to expand...



what line currently has the best value as far as the polls stand?
 
edole said:
what line currently has the best value as far as the polls stand?
Click to expand...
Maybe NOT Trump wins Arkansas?

It actually doesn't have any polls at all, as far as I know, but if Hillary crushes it tomorrow, dog odds on Maine for her could be a good play for March 6th. You'd have to play it tonight, though. And if you do, I would just play a small/medium bet
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Maybe NOT Trump wins Arkansas?

It actually doesn't have any polls at all, as far as I know, but if Hillary crushes it tomorrow, dog odds on Maine for her could be a good play for Match 6th. You'd have to play it tonight, though. And if you do, I would just play a small/medium bet
Click to expand...

Bernie have a shot in Oklahoma?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Maybe NOT Trump wins Arkansas?

It actually doesn't have any polls at all, as far as I know, but if Hillary crushes it tomorrow, dog odds on Maine for her could be a good play for March 6th. You'd have to play it tonight, though. And if you do, I would just play a small/medium bet
Click to expand...
I haven't been able to find any Dem polls for Maine. Seems like good territory for Sanders though.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Maybe NOT Trump wins Arkansas?

It actually doesn't have any polls at all, as far as I know, but if Hillary crushes it tomorrow, dog odds on Maine for her could be a good play for March 6th. You'd have to play it tonight, though. And if you do, I would just play a small/medium bet
Click to expand...

5d Currently has

Trump wins Arkansas -515
Field wins Arkansas +385

How far off is this line do you think? Probably tough to cap with no polls but are you thinking Field should be more like +250? +200?
 
mkess101 said:
5d Currently has

Trump wins Arkansas -515
Field wins Arkansas +385

How far off is this line do you think? Probably tough to cap with no polls but are you thinking Field should be more like +250? +200?
Click to expand...
I'm not really sure, but the most recent poll (like three weeks ago) had Cruz winning by a few points and Trump tied with Rubio. Things have definitely changed since then, though

@waiguoren Could probably answer this question better than me
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I'm not really sure, but the most recent poll (like three weeks ago) had Cruz winning by a few points and Trump tied with Rubio. Things have definitely changed since then, though

@waiguoren Could probably answer this question better than me
Click to expand...

LOL I should probably stick to sports. I won a little on the Grammy's just betting Taylor Swift because it seemed obvious she'd win some of those but I'm still salty about the Oscars last night LOL.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I'm not really sure, but the most recent poll (like three weeks ago) had Cruz winning by a few points and Trump tied with Rubio. Things have definitely changed since then, though

@waiguoren Could probably answer this question better than me
Click to expand...

With no polls, this is like feeling around in the dark. If I had to bet, I would go with FIELD since those are nice odds and Cruz people do turn out. But I feel Cruz has lost some steam over the past few weeks.
 
waiguoren said:
With no polls, this is like feeling around in the dark. If I had to bet, I would go with FIELD since those are nice odds and Cruz people do turn out. But I feel Cruz has lost some steam over the past few weeks.
Click to expand...

Someone already hit it on 5d or there's info coming in saying it's not a gimme for Trump.

It went from Field +385 to +250 within the last couple hours.
 
waiguoren said:
So you can freeroll with 5D.

BTW, you just inspired me to check BM....the limits on politics are way better than 5D.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I already hedged with -350 before you posted this lol.

Yup, plus the more options (bookies) the better

They are also the ones that had the Kasich better finish than Rubio in NH
 
Finalized Super Tuesday action. I have so many units tied up on these from hedging, more than half of my BR lol



NOT Donald Trump wins Minnesota .25u for .65u

NOT Donald Trump wins Arkansas = 0 for 1.76u (freeroll)

Donald Trump wins Georgia = 0 for .91u (freeroll)

Donald Trump wins Virginia = 1.17u for 1.5u

Donald Trump wins Massachusetts = 1.98u for 0.60u

Donald Trump wins Vermont = 0.99u for 0.30u

_______________________________________________

Hillary Clinton wins Massachusetts = 0 for 3.09u (freeroll)

Bernie Sanders wins Massachusetts = 0 for 2.49u (freeroll)

Hillary Clinton wins Minnesota = .33u for .93u

Hillary Clinton wins Colorado = .55u for .60u

Bernie Sanders wins Oklahoma = 0 for 3.31u (freeroll)

Hillary Clinton wins Oklahoma = 0 for 3.31u (freeroll)
 
Cruz just declared winner of Texas.
 
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