First off, chill with the “Aspinall fans are the only loud ones” thing. Scroll any Pereira-Ank thread from March and you’ll see Ank truthers swearing Alex was gonna gas in 90 seconds. Merab-O’Malley 2? Half the sub had Sean “piecing him up standing.” Same energy, different jersey. Aspinall stans aren’t special, we’re just the flavor of the month ‘cause the interim belt finally got defended and Jones is still playing hide-and-seek. The second Gane sleeps Tom with a sneaky knee, y’all will pivot to “I knew Aspinall was paper” faster than a Kia theft tutorial.Now the fight, no bullet points, no slideshow.Gane’s not some washed trial horse. Dude’s been in three title fights. Longest reach in the division, moves like a cruiserweight, and his kickboxing is so slick heavyweights look like they’re stuck in mud. People act like Tom’s the only fast guy in the cage—Gane’s lateral speed and footwork made Ngannou chase shadows for 25 minutes until Francis said “screw it” and wrestled. Aspinall’s southpaw jab is nasty, sure, but Gane’s been eating jabs from 7-footers since Bon Gamin days. He circles out, resets, and punishes lunges. If Tom overcommits early (and he loves to wing that left high kick), Gane’s counter knee is sitting right there. Ask Volkov how that feels.Power? Yeah Tom hits like a truck, but Gane’s chin is legit granite. Never been dropped clean in the UFC. Blaydes folded ‘cause he ate a knee while shooting sloppy. Pavlovich ate a perfect counter ‘cause he plants his feet like a statue. Gane doesn’t—he’s sliding. You don’t land flush on a guy who’s already two steps left by the time your hip turns.Grappling’s the big “Aspinall wins easy” talking point, and I get it—Tom’s a BJJ black belt with scary scrambles. But Gane’s TD defense is 70% career, and the two times it cracked were against Jon freakin’ Jones (craftiest wrestler alive) and Spivac in front of his home crowd when he gassed chasing. Aspinall ain’t Jones-level chain wrestling yet, and Gane’s whizzer + frame game is underrated. He stuffed Ngannou’s first 5 takedowns cold. If Tom shoots reactive off a missed kick, Gane sprawls, pops up, and we’re back to the kicking chess match.Paths? Gane: Circle, potshot, calf kick the lead leg ‘til Tom’s chasing on one wheel. Late rounds he’s fresher ‘cause he’s not burning energy cutting the cage. Decision or a flash KO if Aspinall plants for a big swing.
Tom: Early blitz, clinch knee, or trip off a caught kick. Has to be perfect though—any hesitation and Gane’s gone.
Look, Aspinall’s the betting fave for a reason—he’s a freak. But +300 to +400 on Gane isn’t “donkey money,” it’s value. Dude’s got the exact style to make Tom look silly for 25 minutes if Aspinall can’t cut the cage or land early. We’ve seen “unbeatable” heavyweights eat upset pies weekly—remember Blaydes sleeping Derrick Lewis? Gane by decision ain’t crazy, it’s plausible.I’m not bookmarking usernames to drag later. If Tom folds him in 90 seconds, I’ll eat crow and applaud. Just don’t act shocked when Gane’s dancing circles round 4 and the sub’s screaming “HOW IS ASPINALL STILL CHASING??”
