Media Opening betting odds for recently announced UFC 322 fights

[fortheo]

I was actually gonna point out that her one potential crack in the armor can be her chin. It's a fair point. Val will be a little bigger but imo she looked noticeably slower vs Manon in the exchanges than she used to. Weili should be able to get her shots off first, and it may well end up with Val trying to grapple. But Weili isn't Grasso. Tatiana found out what it's like trying to put Weili on her back.

Val is barely holding on to her spot, but stylistically this could be a tough one for Weili. I'll root for weili, though. I actually think it might be weili who looks to grapple, because that's largely what she's been doing lately.

An interesting part of this fight is that both of these girls spent several camps at tiger muy thai / bang tao. I think weili might still train there? I don't know, maybe she's at syndicate now. Whichever one of them still trains there, though, will have a decent advantage because the coaches know both girls really well.

 

[octagonation]

I See this fight as 50-50 and so does Khabib´s camp including Makhachev himself, they are very nervous for this fight due to JDM arguably being the best striker in the UFC currently. The bastard has very crisp striking this has team khabib second guessing their game plans and constantly adjusting their game plan

Jack probably comes from a long line of farmers he has that weird and unexplainable farmer strength just overall strange, I would take him very very serious if I was Team Khabib also. He is humble, hard working and comes for business on the night which is deadly combination. I can see why Team Khabib label him as the hardest fight. I see this as 50-50 fight as well..

 

[mkess101]

Val is barely holding on to her spot, but stylistically this could be a tough one for Weili. I'll root for weili, though. I actually think it might be weili who looks to grapple, because that's largely what she's been doing lately.

An interesting part of this fight is that both of these girls spent several camps at tiger muy thai / bang tao. I think weili might still train there? I don't know, maybe she's at syndicate now. Whichever one of them still trains there, though, will have a decent advantage because the coaches know both girls really well.

IMO in this one if Weili looks to grapple, it will be when she feels Val might be slowing down and the TD becomes a bit easier.

 

[Tweak896]

Islam has never had Belal's chin. No islam fan should wish for even one round of this Islam vs. JDM fight looks anything like that JDM/belal fight. And if the grappling looks like burns vs. jdm 10x, then doesn't that imply that you think jdm will be hitting some of the most creative sweeps and reversals yet again? Also, you do realize Jack fought a large portion of that fight with a broken arm, right?

I agree, but it's very rare chins matter for grapplers, well as much as strikers. I could list so many horrific chins, and they are mostly strikers.

37 year old Burns was a minute away from winning that fight, until he got caught by the guy 10 years younger. However JDM broke his arm, so I wouldn't say that's his typical performance, fair enough, he'll be a tough guy to put away. Still shows a pathway for Islam. I can't even remember the last time Islam was wobbled besides Martins obviously, he's very defensively sound on the feet.

Weili isn't a finisher as she ages the same way GSP started as one and became a guy who just won lopsided decisions. Maybe she's a bit less exciting now, but she's reliable AF and insanely skilled.

I watched her when she started and looked pretty good to me. Seemed like the Rose KO changed up her style. I agree she has more skills everywhere than the other fighters in her division. However I used to think she was a pretty good striker, but don't feel that way with her change in style now. Striking is much better than others in her weight class right now for sure, but I don't think it's the best we've ever seen at SW.

 

[CasualBot]

Islam finishes JDM

 

[fortheo]

I agree, but it's very rare chins matter for grapplers, well as much as strikers. I could list so many horrific chins, and they are mostly strikers.

37 year old Burns was a minute away from winning that fight, until he got caught by the guy 10 years younger. However JDM broke his arm, so I wouldn't say that's his typical performance, fair enough, he'll be a tough guy to put away. Still shows a pathway for Islam. I can't even remember the last time Islam was wobbled besides Martins obviously, he's very defensively sound on the feet.


I watched her when she started and looked pretty good to me. Seemed like the Rose KO changed up her style. I agree she has more skills everywhere than the other fighters in her division. However I used to think she was a pretty good striker, but don't feel that way with her change in style now. Striking is much better than others in her weight class right now for sure, but I don't think it's the best we've ever seen at SW.

Do you think JDM, now at 28 years old, with two functional arms, multiple camps with craig jones and volk, might be better than he was when he finished burns? And also, Islam was very clearly hurt by volk in their fight, and he admitted it.

Is there a path for Islam? absolutely. I'm just not sure if it's the most likely way that this fight goes down. Good luck controlling jack for 3 out of 5 rounds and then having enough gas left not to get caught in the exchanges that happen on the feet.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

those Jack odds are nuts IMHO

The odds don't seem right at all. The numbers really shouldn't be even. There should always be an overage. The negative (favorite) should be a pretty significantly bigger number. Where's the vig, ya know?

 

[Doughie99]

Current odds:

JDM: +210
Makhachev: -210

Opening odds:


Current odds:

Shevchenko: +101
Zhang: +105

Opening odds:

I do think Zhang wins that fight.
Just think Shev is now well past her best.

And yes Makhachev should win the WW fight even though I hope JDM pulls it off....

 

[mkess101]

The odds don't seem right at all. The numbers really shouldn't be even. There should always be an overage. The negative (favorite) should be a pretty significantly bigger number. Where's the vig, ya know?

They could be pulling the best odds for each from different books.

 

[Tweak896]

Do you think JDM, now at 28 years old, with two functional arms, multiple camps with craig jones and volk, might be better than he was when he finished burns? And also, Islam was very clearly hurt by volk in their fight, and he admitted it.

Is there a path for Islam? absolutely. I'm just not sure if it's the most likely way that this fight goes down. Good luck controlling jack for 3 out of 5 rounds and then having enough gas left not to get caught in the exchanges that happen on the feet.

Bassil Hafez controlled JDM too. I don't know where this confidence for JDM's TDD has come from, especially against Islam. JDM is not going to win this one, it's a gimme fight. Holland almost grabbed a split from counters alone from basically a boxing match. Not to mention Belal was coming off an injury and is 37.

Islam's striking defense >> Belal
Islam's wrestling >> Belal
Islam's subs >> Belal
Islam's KO power >> Belal

Pretty much same size and 4 years younger than Belal. I don't know to me, this seems like a freebie 2nd belt for Islam, I'm happy to see a war and someone to really challenge Islam. I don't think size alone is going to stop wrestling and JDM hasn't lately seemed like a real power puncher against elite guys.

 

[Hymen Crusher]

2 to 1 for jdm is good value

 

[cws80us]

Belal was a guy who basically just got TDs and outwrestled everyone he fought not unlike Khamzat. We can take the JDM fight 1 of 2 ways. Either Belal just chose to stand and strike or else JDM neutralized his TDs and wrestling and forced him to stand and strike. If it's the first then that was stupid by Belal and makes me lean towards Islam. If it's the 2nd then I lean towards JDM. Islam had some trouble with Poirier and also with a much smaller Volk, so if JDMs TD is really that good then that could pose some real problems for him. Or it could just end up being a repeat of DDP- Khamzat lol.

The only thing that worries me about Valentina is her age. At 37 and a lot of mileage, does she still have enough in the tank? If so, I think she beats Zhang easily. She's better in every aspect and much bigger having fought at 135 while Zhang has never been above 115. Only way she loses is if she just tires and gets outworked.

 

[fortheo]

Bassil Hafez controlled JDM too. I don't know where this confidence for JDM's TDD has come from, especially against Islam. JDM is not going to win this one, it's a gimme fight. Holland almost grabbed a split from counters alone from basically a boxing match. Not to mention Belal was coming off an injury and is 37.

Islam's striking defense >> Belal
Islam's wrestling >> Belal
Islam's subs >> Belal
Islam's KO power >> Belal

Pretty much same size and 4 years younger than Belal. I don't know to me, this seems like a freebie 2nd belt for Islam, I'm happy to see a war and someone to really challenge Islam. I don't think size alone is going to stop wrestling and JDM hasn't lately seemed like a real power puncher against elite guys.

My confidence isn't in Jack's TDD -- it's in his scrambling. I'll remind you that when you picked belal to beat Jack, you were using some exact logic to downplay Jack's grappling. You're misreading his game in my opinion and failing to see the forest for the trees. Have you not seen him scramble up from every single guy you're saying controlled him? He's one of the most creative scramblers out there right now. Also, in both the fights you mention, he was under unfavorable circumstances -- broken arm against burns, two weight cuts in a week against Hafez -- and he still won. I'd argue that hafez fight was more indicative of bad fight IQ on Jack's part than any indication of his grappling level.

 

[Tweak896]

My confidence isn't in Jack's TDD -- it's in his scrambling. I'll remind you that when you picked belal to beat Jack, you were using some exact logic to downplay Jack's grappling. You're misreading his game in my opinion and failing to see the forest for the trees. Have you not seen him scramble up from every single guy you're saying controlled him? He's one of the most creative scramblers out there right now. Also, in both the fights you mention, he was under unfavorable circumstances -- broken arm against burns, two weight cuts in a week against Hafez -- and he still won. I'd argue that hafez fight was more indicative of bad fight IQ on Jack's part than any indication of his grappling level.

I did fail that pick 100%. JDM has good gameplans and discipline to me, that's why he was able to avoid Belal. His camp seems good at focusing on distance where he is vunerable to even get taken down. If he does get down, you're right about his scrambles being good enough where he doesn't spend the round on his back.

However, Islam is a different beast in my opinion. I'll continue to be wrong and ignorant, so be it. JDM might be one of those guys I consistently underestimate. I'll admit I picked wrong if it comes. Still think either Islam dominates or subs him quickly.

 

[sfer1]

Weili will encounter the same problems she had with Rose:

1. Undersized. Many people say Rose is too small to fight at 125. Well, Weili is smaller than Rose. Rose had 3.4lbs on her inside the cage.

2. Reach disadvantage. Weili has short T-Rex arms. She will have a hard time closing the distance.

3. Inferior grappling. Rose kept her on the ground at will in the second fight. Valentina is physically stronger and a better wrestler than Rose.

 

[svmr_db]

Added Edwards/Prates odds to the main post, they put Prates as the underdog initially lol now he's -180.

 

[mkess101]

My confidence isn't in Jack's TDD -- it's in his scrambling. I'll remind you that when you picked belal to beat Jack, you were using some exact logic to downplay Jack's grappling. You're misreading his game in my opinion and failing to see the forest for the trees. Have you not seen him scramble up from every single guy you're saying controlled him? He's one of the most creative scramblers out there right now. Also, in both the fights you mention, he was under unfavorable circumstances -- broken arm against burns, two weight cuts in a week against Hafez -- and he still won. I'd argue that hafez fight was more indicative of bad fight IQ on Jack's part than any indication of his grappling level.

Jack is a really good scrambler. That said, Islam is on a completely different level with his overall grappling than Belal or even Burns. Gilbert has elite BJJ but Islam getting a TD and Jack working and scrambling up gives Islam real opportunities to advance to dominant positions, Islam is just far beyond even Glibert at MMA adapted grappling in those transitions.

 

[mkess101]

Weili will encounter the same problems she had with Rose:

1. Undersized. Many people say Rose is too small to fight at 125. Well, Weili is smaller than Rose. Rose had 3.4lbs on her inside the cage.

2. Reach disadvantage. Weili has short T-Rex arms. She will have a hard time closing the distance.

3. Inferior grappling. Rose kept her on the ground at will in the second fight. Valentina is physically stronger and a better wrestler than Rose.

The 2nd Rose fight is why Weili worked obsessively on her grappling and cardio and has made herself into an elite grappler.

 

[Ladron4sherdog]

those Jack odds are nuts IMHO

Just like those Chimaev vs DDP odds? When you have an alltime great grappler, the odds should be comfortably in their favor.

I'm seeing quite a few people who were perplexed by the DDP vs Chimaev odds (and thinking DDP was going to win) confused as to why Islam is favored this much. Khamzat made DDP look like an amateur and I think Islam will do the same with JDM.

 

[Streeter]

Will bet all 3 underdogs easily.

JDM should be a dog but like +140 - current odds is great value

Val should either be a slight favorite or a pick em

Prates should be favored as it will be striking and hes just better at it at this point.