Official UFC on Fox 15 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Roger FedorAIR]

Haven't made any bets yet, but this card is the first card in a long time that I've actually felt like betting on. I know about 90% of the fighters, have a pretty good recollection of previous fights to base a preliminary handicap on, even without watching tape, and I'm actually legitimately interested in watching almost pretty much the entire card from top to bottom...

This card actually kind of feels like a card from 2012, tbh.

As of right now, Rockhold, Cummins, and Hettes stand out as the plays I'll be making. And I really like this Corey Anderson dude and think he's one of the few up and coming guys to watch for in the heavier classes, but I can't find that other guy that I feel confident on, to parlay him with. I feel like I should know who the dude is that's fighting Mizugaki, for him to be so heavily favored against a top guy like that. But sadly, I do not...

 

[Card]

Soares and Machida interview - around 30 min mark, Soares says Machida has been sparring with Glover Teixeira to prepare

Glover Teixeira is orthodox.

 

[efalk1322]

Few more plays:

1.7u Miller +150
1.3u Villante +255 (Great value IMO)
1u Gordon+Holloway/Swanson Over 2.5

Also adding 1.4u Cummins+Mets(Already hit) Got cummins at -130..i expect it to be even around fight time but w.e

 

[Mikedh]

Miller one is very tempting. He isn't past it or anything but he definitely seems "worn out" as a fighter. Having said that, he has played spoiler to many a prospect.

 

[Card]

Lyoto says he can beat Rockhold in the standup

 

[Ukram]

OSP Cummins has to be one of the most interesting fights Ive ever had to predict. At first I really liked OSP, he's underrated and keeps on improving and very athletic. But we all saw what Bader did to him..

Its only because of Cummins wrestling ability that sways me towards Cummins. From a stylistic matchup this is a bad one for OSP. In terms of a bet this fight is a pass for me, I dont see value either way. Its either OSP via TKO, or as per usual Cummins grinds his way to a unanimous decision. Cummins talking about wanting to finish OSP is laughable, sorry but hes not finishing OSP, if theres going to be a stoppage in this fight its going to come via OSP's way.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

I rewatched both guys last few fights, unless osp has improved his td defence or he stuffs cummings tds 2-3x early on I think cummings will eventually find the right time and space to get his take down, his style is a bit raw compared to baders but his overall wrestling style is not he pushes for take downs and uses his opponents balance and footwork to push them over or make it work against them, I think cummings gnp is better then baders but we will see.

Oh nice pics also that last one, cummings does that in his fights guess he knows to keep his back straight, knees bent when lifting up heavy objects :icon_chee

 

[crewman]

I rewatched both guys last few fights, unless osp has improved his td defence or he stuffs cummings tds 2-3x early on I think cummings will eventually find the right time and space to get his take down, his style is a bit raw compared to baders but his overall wrestling style is not he pushes for take downs and uses his opponents balance and footwork to push them over or make it work against them, I think cummings gnp is better then baders but we will see.

Oh nice pics also that last one, cummings does that in his fights guess he knows to keep his back straight, knees bent when lifting up heavy objects :icon_chee

I think Bader at this point in time would destroy Cummins, its not a fair fight, Bader is essentially a better improved version of Cummins.

The problem with Cummins is that he is too green in mma. OSP is dangerous as fuck like I said before people underrate him. We saw how easily he caught Shogun of all people who has great striking. OSP is powerful fast and accurate all he needs to do is clip Cummins with a good one and I truly believe he will tko Cummins. Cummins is not used to getting hit in the face in mma just yet. This is why Im kinda hesitant to bet on Cummins. OSP won the 2nd round versus Bader but im not sure if that was Bader taking his foot off the gas or OSP winning.

 

[wack3d]

4/14 NBA/MLB

Spoiler

Slightly in the red yesterday; will tally up results sometime today. Here's a clip of MLB gm.'s I like + one NBA gm. that I like. May add more ltr. if I'm doing well.

________

NBA
Phoenix +10 $13.75 $11.96

MLB
SF Padres $13.75 $10.50
Bal Orioles $13.75 $11.36
Cle Indians $13.75 $10.91
Tor Blue Jays $13.75 $9.48
1h Bal Orioles $13.75 $11.00
1h Tor Blue Jays $13.75 $9.17
Col Rockies V Sfo Giants +7 $13.75 $12.50
Tb Rays V Tor Blue Jays +8 $13.75 $11.96
Phi Phillies V Ny Mets +6.5 $13.75 $13.10
Ari D'backs V Sdg Padres +6.5 $13.75 $12.50
Chi White Sox V Cle Indians +7 $13.75 $13.75
1h Mia Marlins V 1h Atl Braves +3.5 $17.19 $13.75
1h Tb Rays V 1h Tor Blue Jays +4.5 $13.75 $13.75
1h Ari D'backs V 1h Sdg Padres +3.5 $13.75 $15.81
1h Col Rockies V 1h Sfo Giants +3.5 $13.75 $12.50
1h Ny Yankees V 1h Bal Orioles +4.5 $13.75 $13.75
1h Sea Mariners V 1h La Dodgers +3.5 $13.75 $11.00

followed all the MLB plays.. good luck to us

 

[Ukram]

I think Bader at this point in time would destroy Cummins, its not a fair fight, Bader is essentially a better improved version of Cummins.

The problem with Cummins is that he is too green in mma. OSP is dangerous as fuck like I said before people underrate him. We saw how easily he caught Shogun of all people who has great striking. OSP is powerful fast and accurate all he needs to do is clip Cummins with a good one and I truly believe he will tko Cummins. Cummins is not used to getting hit in the face in mma just yet. This is why Im kinda hesitant to bet on Cummins. OSP won the 2nd round versus Bader but im not sure if that was Bader taking his foot off the gas or OSP winning.

Yup I liked cummings off the bat but osp is legit still could make it his fight his striking is deceptively fast and accurate.

Will look forward ot the work out vids tommorow and maybe some osp interviews.

Ill be live betting all the fights as per usual, rockhold and cub are still good picks but as per usual machida and hollyway are no push over either

 

[ivanilich]

Aldo just hit -125 at bet365. =D

 

[Tebowned]

Pretty cool. Hopefully this TUF is exciting.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I'm really liking Swanson right now at -150

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Pretty cool. Hopefully this TUF is exciting.

That looks so dope... Wish I could chill there for a bit

 

[Tebowned]

Damn ufc on Fox in Chicago!

Renan vs Dillashaw II.
Jury vs Pettis.
Eye vs Tate.

 

[wack3d]

rockhold -133 on sportingbet.dk if anyone from denmark is looking to bet him..

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Damn ufc Fox on Chicago!

Renan vs Dillashaw II.
Jury vs Pettis.

Damn... So far, I like

 

[efalk1322]

Damn ufc Fox on Chicago!

Renan vs Dillashaw II.
Jury vs Pettis.
Eye vs Tate.

i feel bad for myles....pettis is gonna fuck him up

 

[Tebowned]

i feel bad for myles....pettis is gonna fuck him up

I won't feel bad. Myles is a douche.

Hopefully Pettis brings his TDD. It was shit vs RDA.

RDA shoots a double, Pettis hugs his back, and gets scooped up.
Over and over so frustrating.

 

[iGnP]

Yes. I bolded why I don't think jacare wins.
My thoughts:

Spoiler

Rockhold is lengthier than both Weidman and Jacare.
Don't let the measurements fool you. He should have the length advantage by a mile.

He has better striking than Jacare imo. He also out struck Jacare in their fight. I understand it was awhile ago but a 27 year old is likely going to progress faster than a 32 year old in the mean time.

I believe luke has better cardio than both Jacare and Weidman. They all cut tons of weight but I feel Luke does it "right" as I've never seen luke tired in his 3 or 5 round fights. Same cannot be said for Weidman and Jacare.


I think Jacare's biggest threat vs Weidman would be his BJJ. I don't see him taking down Weidman and Weidman is no slouch on the ground either.
I don't think he can win the stand-up either. I think he gets ko'd halfway through the 2nd.


I think Luke CAN win the Weidman fight by being elusive early. Picking his shots and avoiding Weidman's and wearing him down.
Luke should have the reach advantage.
I feel Luke is going to win the distance game especially if it goes deeper.


No doubt Weidman is a great fighter.
He has Striking, he has wrestling, and he has BJJ.
I think outside of those skills his best asset is his timing. He's great at timing punches, takedowns, and kicks off counters. He even counters with elbows as seen vs Munoz.
His timing is the best in the game at the heavier weights especially since he does most of his work at a speed disadvantage.

I think his downfall will be vs a Rockhold type fighter. A guy with great cardio, great striking, and a guy who won't give up the takedown when he puts his opponent into trouble.
When he was in trouble vs Maia, sakara, and machida he was able to take them down.
I never said rocked but just troubled. He also had a size advantage on all of them. He won't have that vs Rockhold.


How do you feel Jacare wins or why do you think he has the better shot? I just don't see it.

I think the days of a 35yo+ winning titles(Aside from Heavyweight they peak later in life) is over especially with TRT being banned and PEDs being cracked down on.

Spoiler

i just felt the speed advantage that jacare would have over weidman would be a big difference maker. id like to see how weidman deals w vitor's speed in their upcoming fight. is he even gonna play the stand up game for long periods of time or is he gonna put vitor on his ass as soon as the opportunity presents itself. putting jacare on his back isnt really something i think weidman wants to go but then again the guy stood up w anderson, albeit, he was very very cautious standing.

im just hesitant to jump on board w the luke train. yes, on paper he seems to be the makings of a future champion but other than the fight w jacare in strikeforce, he hasnt faced anyone that id consider to be better than mid tier. i guess id have to see how he does against machida before putting him ahead of jacare in terms of weidman's toughest test in the division

 

[MidgardSerpent]

That TUF poster is like a commercial for GTA : Vice City. I like how they are stressing the mansion is REALLY BIG, like super duper big. Like, bigger than a frakkin' Belugian spermwhale big.