Official UFC on Fox 15 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Sham5916910]

See the odds via my bookies, very nice card and its nice to see most fights with decent odds across the board, see jacare unplayable but that was natural.

Otherwise off the bat do like cummings, swanson, rockhold plays, hettes, mizu and jim interesting dogs guess hollyway also.

Otherwise indeed glad to see ufc back on US soil with decent brand name fighters!

What bookies do you use? Paddy have only released Rockhold / Jacare lines so far. Jacare was -900 this morning, now he's -1600!

 

[Ukram]

What bookies do you use? Paddy have only released Rockhold / Jacare lines so far. Jacare was -900 this morning, now he's -1600!

william hill uk bookies

they just put the odds this morning

 

[Tebowned]

See the odds via my bookies, very nice card and its nice to see most fights with decent odds across the board, see jacare unplayable but that was natural.

Otherwise off the bat do like cummings, swanson, rockhold plays, hettes, mizu and jim interesting dogs guess hollyway also.

Otherwise indeed glad to see ufc back on US soil with decent brand name fighters!

Dogs I liked:
Hollaway
OSP


I made a bet on OSP at +110 because I thought he'd close at -150 but it looks like he may end up at +150.
The more I think about it the more I think Cummins is going to outwrestle him with little problems.

I bet on Brandao vs Hettes in the first fight and I cannot see how this fight goes the distance.
Hettes I think got sick due to the weight cut but I remember Brandao looked like he took the fight very seriously as his contact may be on the line.

 

[Ukram]

I made a bet on OSP at +110 because I thought he'd close at -150 but it looks like he may end up at +150.
The more I think about it the more I think Cummins is going to outwrestle him with little problems.

I could be wrong, think 1-2 others mentioned they were on OSP also.

OSP is deceptively fast and accurate with his striking and he did catch bader coming in many times for a take down attempt, he caught shogun coming in also.

Ill watch some tape on both and see, but still like cummings to put on a grappling and wrestling show.

 

[Ukram]

ugh watching tape. This George Sullivan vs Rhodes fight is really shitty.

yup sullivan does bite down and throw down bombs, its his grappling and wrestling he mixes in just a bit more better then means that makes him an interesting play.

Otherwise I do think means has lately shown a good grappling improvement himself and works more to get back up, his overall striking output is cleaner and more accurate with good volume so I tend to favour means a bit more at this point.

 

[Card]

Rockhold vs. Machida - southpaw vs. southpaw, I think the only southpaws they have fought are Rockhold/Vitor and Machida/Franklin

Dariush vs. Miller is also southpaw vs. southpaw, Miller was training for Felder who is orthodox (1 week notice for Dariush) Cruickshank is switch, Miller's last southpaw was Diaz

Preux is a southpaw over Cummins and Hettes over Brandao

Recent southpaw underdog wins: Cro Cop, Stallings, Johnson, Johnson, Mir, Martins

 

[Card]

Sullivan had a full camp preparing for Robertson and this fight is in his hometown.

Means took this on 1 week notice.
In the interview posted above - Means said he likes guys that like to fight not bear hug his leg for 15 mins. He said he didn't get alot of time to prepare but just has his cardio.

Takedown wise - Sullivan landed 1 of 2 on Araujo (before the TKO) and 2 of 14 on Rhodes. Sullivan has never been TKO'ed.

Interview from Sullivan before the Araujo fight -

“I was very happy for the fight,” affirms Sullivan. ”I’ve always wanted to fight a straight Brazilian jiu-jitsu guy. I have fought three NCAA Division I wrestlers. I have gotten that out of the way. I fought [NCAA Division I All-American] Brandon Becker, I outwrestled him and I knocked him out. Now, I am fighting a jiu-jitsu guy and I would love to do some anti-jiu-jitsu and stop him and then knock him out. I think it is a great fight for me. I like the fact that it is typical ‘striker vs. grappler’. I think grapplers used to have the advantage back then, but I think strikers have the advantage nowadays.”

In preparation for Araujo, Sullivan has double, even tripled, his training on the ground, heading into New York City to roll with arguably the best BJJ player in the world, Marcelo Garcia, and his team of high-profile prot

 

[barrygood1]

If Camozzi reaches +1000 I'm putting a flier on him. Yes, Jacare is heads above him and schooled him the first fight but this is a "let down" fight Jacare. I see Camozzi having insane motivation and so long as he can avoid sub we've seen crazier judges scorecards.

 

[Card]

If anyone is looking to do breakdowns (hint hint Goodfella/Hazak) - would like:

Rockhold vs. Machida
Swanson vs. Holloway
Cummins vs. OSP
Means vs. Sullivan

Fightmetric stats - if anyone likes looking at it - http://fightmetric.com/event-details/bc7cf284c1c2f16e

 

[Tebowned]

If Camozzi reaches +1000 I'm putting a flier on him. Yes, Jacare is heads above him and schooled him the first fight but this is a "let down" fight Jacare. I see Camozzi having insane motivation and so long as he can avoid sub we've seen crazier judges scorecards.

I like the over much better. I think it'll be like a lot of juicer's fights.

Camozzi will be so afraid of his ground that he's getting beat up on the feet back pedaling. Sometimes Jacare can start slow.

I know he beat him in 3 minutes last time.

 

[Card]

Gordon and Sterling interview on MMA Hour - http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/4/14/8408251/the-mma-hour-277-eddie-gordon-aljamain-sterling

 

[iGnP]

Yeah pretty confident on Rockhold.

Machida is great at understanding distance.

In Machida's prime years, I thought he was the best at it aside from GSP and he's a WW.

Luke IMO has a great understanding of distance and is right there with both GSP and Machida but he's almost 7 years younger.
He can strike at range, on the inside, can takedown, and defend takedowns.
Machida is going to struggle with rockholds range and his Blitzs are not as quick as they used to be.
I think Rockhold will win every round and may finish Machida with a late sub.

In my mind Luke is the biggest threat to the champ because of his striking(especially at range) and takedown defense.

Even if Luke is taken down he has a really good at BJJ. He's a black Belt in Le-jitsu. I don't think Weidman would sub him.

care to elaborate as to why you think rockhold poses a tougher match up than jacare?

 

[Card]

Cummins - http://www.ufc.com/news/Patrick-Cummins-From-Coffee-to-Contender

- I went back and looked at the DC fight and saw the good things I did and saw the mistakes I made,

 

[crewman]

If anyone is looking to do breakdowns (hint hint Goodfella/Hazak) - would like:

Rockhold vs. Machida
Swanson vs. Holloway
Cummins vs. OSP
Means vs. Sullivan

Fightmetric stats - if anyone likes looking at it - http://fightmetric.com/event-details/bc7cf284c1c2f16e

I lean towards Rockhold in this very close fight. However people are seriously underestimating Machida here. Machida is never an easy fight for nobody. I can even make a case for Rockhold via split. That Vitor loss was the best thing for Rockhold, it turned him into an animal the best thing for his career.

OSP Cummins has to be one of the most interesting fights Ive ever had to predict. At first I really liked OSP, he's underrated and keeps on improving and very athletic. But we all saw what Bader did to him..

Its only because of Cummins wrestling ability that sways me towards Cummins. From a stylistic matchup this is a bad one for OSP. In terms of a bet this fight is a pass for me, I dont see value either way. Its either OSP via TKO, or as per usual Cummins grinds his way to a unanimous decision. Cummins talking about wanting to finish OSP is laughable, sorry but hes not finishing OSP, if theres going to be a stoppage in this fight its going to come via OSP's way.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[Card]

VanZant - http://www.ufc.com/news/Paige-VanZant-Ready-to-swarm

- I go in there to finish the fight right away. I feel very comfortable doing that. I believe I have good enough cardio where I can go out and go 100% right at the beginning of the bout, and I can push it and last all three rounds. I do work my cardio enough to keep it up.”
- I just like to swarm my opponent and not give them a second to think about what their game plan was going into the fight,”
- “I really think it throws my opponents off, especially with the Kailin fight.
- I won’t do that with all my opponents because with each opponent I’ll change my fighting style just a little. Once I am a little more technical, I will go out and feel out my opponents and pick them apart the way some fighters like TJ Dillashaw do. Maybe when I get more technical, I’ll get less crazy at the beginning of the fight.”
- “I am young, I just turned 21 and I don’t have a lot of experience, but I have the drive and athleticism to be where I am. I just have to prove that I am where I am for a reason. I do very well under pressure
- “Stylistically, we should put on an exciting fight. Felice has awesome Muay Thai.
- I train for the fight to go the distance. I have never been finished and while I plan to go to the distance, I always go for a finish. You have to know that there is always the opportunity it will go all 15 minutes.
- everyone has this amazing work ethic. There’s obviously a lot of big names there like TJ, Chad Mendes, Joe Benavidez, Urijah and Lance Palmer, and every day you show up for practice you show up for a war. Practice is very, very intense, but it’s very, very fun. Now, I just have to train my hardest and get the win.”

 

[iGnP]

NBA

Spoiler

if you're going to tail, i suggest small. the raptors and the bulls are currently competing against each other for the third seed and a much easier first round match up. the raptors have the tiebreaker and currently have one less win than the bulls. tonight the raptors play the celtics, who just clinched a playoff spot w a losing record. this game probably means more to the raptors than it does for the celtics. in addition to that, the raptors seem to be playing better basketball of late, as Kyle Lowry has come back from his back spasms. im also gonna play the wizards but very small if anyone is interested

Toronto Raptors -2 for 2u

BOL everyone!

 

[Card]

Herrig - http://www.ufc.com/news/Felice-Herrig-Dues-Payin-Card-Carryin-Veteran

- early 2014, “I was burned out before I got the opportunity to be on The Ultimate Fighter and I actually didn’t want to fight anymore.
- And then I ended up having to dig deep and reevaluate myself and my training and it lit a fire under my ass.
- I changed things to a more professional level and once I saw that I was hitting that next level, it re-motivated me and got me excited again to where I really felt that I was evolving again. Before I thought I was as good as I was gonna get, so all I had to do was just keep training hard.”
- “I feel like whoever was gonna fight her was going to derail her hype train,”
- No offense, I know she got a lot of hype because she beat Kailin Curran, but Kailin Curran had just turned pro the year before. She (Curran) wasn’t in the house, she wasn’t a contender, and I think the casual fan doesn’t know that. Somebody had to fight her (VanZant), so I was like ‘I’ll be happy to stop that hype train.’
- But at the same time, I’m not underestimating her, I’m not taking her lightly. I’ve been training my ass off just the same.
- A week after the Ellis fight last December, Herrig was back in the gym and getting ready for a fight she didn’t even have yet.
- I’ve got like 50 fights now, but I do believe that I deserve to be there. I’ve worked really hard for a really long time, so I want to showcase my skills
- I know I had to dig deep, and make it to where it’s a passion and not just a hobby, and I think that plays into a fight to where you’re not going to fold when times get tough. You’re not just gonna give up.”

Herring - http://mmajunkie.com/2015/04/felice...-would-have-lost-in-the-first-round-of-tuf-20

- “I think VanZant would have fought Carla (Esparza) and lost,”
- “I don’t believe that Paige is the elite of the elite; I don’t believe she is the best of the best,”
- “I really believe that any one of those girls in the house would have beat Paige.”
- “I just don’t think she’s at that level right now. She’s still young. I’m not trying to bash her and say that she sucks. I just think that at this point in her career, I don’t think she is at the top of the division.”
- “I’m still training three times a day; I’m still giving her the respect like I’m fighting for a world title,”
- What has Paige done in her career to be labeled as a top fighter in the UFC?”
- One step at a time, one fight at a time, but so far in her career, she hasn’t done anything that has put her in the position to really be considered a top strawweight in the world. I’m not trying to dog her. I’m not trying to underestimate her. Just prove me wrong; prove everyone wrong.”

 

[Tebowned]

care to elaborate as to why you think rockhold poses a tougher match up than jacare?

Yes. I bolded why I don't think jacare wins.
My thoughts:

Spoiler

Rockhold is lengthier than both Weidman and Jacare.
Don't let the measurements fool you. He should have the length advantage by a mile.

He has better striking than Jacare imo. He also out struck Jacare in their fight. I understand it was awhile ago but a 27 year old is likely going to progress faster than a 32 year old in the mean time.

I believe luke has better cardio than both Jacare and Weidman. They all cut tons of weight but I feel Luke does it "right" as I've never seen luke tired in his 3 or 5 round fights. Same cannot be said for Weidman and Jacare.


I think Jacare's biggest threat vs Weidman would be his BJJ. I don't see him taking down Weidman and Weidman is no slouch on the ground either.
I don't think he can win the stand-up either. I think he gets ko'd halfway through the 2nd.


I think Luke CAN win the Weidman fight by being elusive early. Picking his shots and avoiding Weidman's and wearing him down.
Luke should have the reach advantage.
I feel Luke is going to win the distance game especially if it goes deeper.


No doubt Weidman is a great fighter.
He has Striking, he has wrestling, and he has BJJ.
I think outside of those skills his best asset is his timing. He's great at timing punches, takedowns, and kicks off counters. He even counters with elbows as seen vs Munoz.
His timing is the best in the game at the heavier weights especially since he does most of his work at a speed disadvantage.

I think his downfall will be vs a Rockhold type fighter. A guy with great cardio, great striking, and a guy who won't give up the takedown when he puts his opponent into trouble.
When he was in trouble vs Maia, sakara, and machida he was able to take them down.
I never said rocked but just troubled. He also had a size advantage on all of them. He won't have that vs Rockhold.


How do you feel Jacare wins or why do you think he has the better shot? I just don't see it.

I think the days of a 35yo+ winning titles(Aside from Heavyweight they peak later in life) is over especially with TRT being banned and PEDs being cracked down on.

 

[PuertoRican]

If Camozzi reaches +1000 I'm putting a flier on him. Yes, Jacare is heads above him and schooled him the first fight but this is a "let down" fight Jacare. I see Camozzi having insane motivation and so long as he can avoid sub we've seen crazier judges scorecards.

Don't try to justify why you'd place a bet on a +1000 underdog, you just make yourself sound dumb. What if Camozzi closed at +900, would you not think his newly found motivation is worth the bet at a lower, yet still very high underdog price?

Anyway, it doesn't matter how motivated Camozzi is for this fight, the only way he'd win is via some fluke punch that hit Jacare in a random spot, or via DQ. Since Camozzi lacks power, seeing him win via KO/TKO is a stretch. Camozzi doesn't have the defensive tools to win a decision.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

4/14 NBA/MLB

Spoiler

Slightly in the red yesterday; will tally up results sometime today. Here's a clip of MLB gm.'s I like + one NBA gm. that I like. May add more ltr. if I'm doing well.

________

NBA
Phoenix +10 $13.75 $11.96

MLB
SF Padres $13.75 $10.50
Bal Orioles $13.75 $11.36
Cle Indians $13.75 $10.91
Tor Blue Jays $13.75 $9.48
1h Bal Orioles $13.75 $11.00
1h Tor Blue Jays $13.75 $9.17
Col Rockies V Sfo Giants +7 $13.75 $12.50
Tb Rays V Tor Blue Jays +8 $13.75 $11.96
Phi Phillies V Ny Mets +6.5 $13.75 $13.10
Ari D'backs V Sdg Padres +6.5 $13.75 $12.50
Chi White Sox V Cle Indians +7 $13.75 $13.75
1h Mia Marlins V 1h Atl Braves +3.5 $17.19 $13.75
1h Tb Rays V 1h Tor Blue Jays +4.5 $13.75 $13.75
1h Ari D'backs V 1h Sdg Padres +3.5 $13.75 $15.81
1h Col Rockies V 1h Sfo Giants +3.5 $13.75 $12.50
1h Ny Yankees V 1h Bal Orioles +4.5 $13.75 $13.75
1h Sea Mariners V 1h La Dodgers +3.5 $13.75 $11.00