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Official UFC on Fox 15 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Oblivian

Oblivian

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Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Singles
Jim Miller: $10 to win $13.26 Loss
OSP: $7.50 to win $7.88 $15.38
Sullivan/Means under 2.5: $6.25 to win $11.67 Loss
Villante: $1.25 to win $4.06 $5.31

Risk of $25 $20.69

Parlays
Jacare + Van Zant: $5 to win $4.40 $9.40
Holloway (+3.5 handicap) + Not Herrig ITD: $5 to win $3.79 $8.79
Machida/Rockhold starts 2 + Hettes/Brandao ITD: $5 to win $3.78 $8.78
Field over Spieth (RBC) + Rock/Machida starts 2 + Brandao/Hettes ITD: $3.75 to win $3.72 $7.47
Field over McDowell (RBC) + Machida/Rockhold ITD: $2.50 to win $2.72 $5.22
Field over McDowell (RBC) + Jacare ITD + Not Gordon (T)KO: $2.50 to win $3.95 $6.45
Rockhold (Points -3.5) + Mizugaki (Points +3.5): $1.25 to win $4.25 Loss

Risk of $25 $46.11

TOTAL RISK OF $50 $66.80

TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $110.68 Running Profit: $15.68 Approximate ROI for year -1.595%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2572.06 Total Profit = $2543.06 (Approximate ROI: 13.4177%)
 
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Cant wait for this card, fantastic fights and fantastic lines, after last weekends events im ready to roll over and start fresh

Leans
Machida dec
the over in Machida/Ruckhold
Hettes
PVZ
Cub
Means
 
Last thing on Walking Dead.

Kill Carl in spectacular fashion and I will stop shitting on the show. I could fill this thread with this rant if we don't stop now LOL.
 
6u Rockhold+Jacare
2u Jacare/Camozzi u 1.5 + Open Spot
 
MLB
BOS RED SOX +1.5 $13.75 $6.67
BOS RED SOX v NY YANKEES +7.5 $13.75 $12.85
1H BOS RED SOX v 1H NY YANKEES +4 $13.75 $14.30
 
My predictions

Machida
Jacare
Holloway
VanZant
OSP
Sterling
Brandao
 
Rockhold decision +275 on unibet

Think he is to big and athletic for machida and propably has the grappling edge as well

Beating jacare is more impressive then any of machidas wins, propably even bigger then beating tito
 
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MMA Goodfella said:
MLB
BOS RED SOX +1.5 $13.75 $6.67
BOS RED SOX v NY YANKEES +7.5 $13.75 $12.85
1H BOS RED SOX v 1H NY YANKEES +4 $13.75 $14.30
Click to expand...

Killin' it today!!! 10-3 so far.. let's c'tinue :cool:
NBA

Mavs v Lakers TT Mavs +105 $20.00 $17.39
 
Swanson is heavily underrated at -150 against a middling fighter like Holloway
 
First mlb bet of the sEason is NY -1.5.

Would like to think that cashes haha
 
rille31 said:
Rockhold decision +275 on unibet

Think he is to big and athletic for machida and propably has the grappling edge as well

Beating jacare is more impressive then any of machidas wins, propably even bigger then beating tito
Click to expand...

Meh, Jacare almost lost to tim kennedy.
 
Sup boyos! Just put 100 on 5d, what should my unit be set to?
 
When the odds were released on bestfightodds, I was surprised by how some of the lines were moving. These lines include:

Swanson vs Holloway
St Preux vs Cummins
Mizugaki vs Sterling

The biggest value I see in this card is no doubt in the almost-contender Swanson. Swanson is currently valued at -150 which translates to an implied probability of 60%. In my opinion, the probability of Swanson being the victor should be at least 65%.

True, Swanson recently comes off of a loss to Edgar losing to his relentless chain wrestling combined with expert ground and pound. We should not forget, however, his win streak over the likes Jeremy Stephens, Poirier, Siver, Pearson which showcases Swanson's excellent striking. His most glaring weakness is his weak takedown defense. His recent loss to Edgar demonstrates this perfectly. Swanson did well on the feet, but once on the ground, he was dominated thoroughly by the top heavy control of Edgar. Of Swanson's 5 losses in the the UFC/WEC, 4 were due to the elite wrestling skills from Pulver, Edgar, Lamas and Mendes. Only against Jose Aldo was he ever knocked out on the feet. Against Holloway, this fight will no doubt stay on the feet where I expect Swanson to dominate. As shown by his fighting record, Swanson loses against elite opponents with good wrestling skills. This does not describe Holloway.

Max Holloway is currently on a 5 fight streak against the likes of Miller, Corassani, Collard, Will Chope and Fili. Although these wins are nothing to sniff at, they are also appear significantly inferior when compared to the qualities of Swanson's opponents. Furthermore, I was not impressed by Holloway's close win over Fili who managed to hold his own on the feet despite being an unproven striker and only lost in the 3rd round to a guillotine choke. Fili even managed to secure 3 takedowns in the fight. While I appreciate Holloway as a good striker, the qualities of his opponents whom he outstrikes does not impress. Holloway's use of takedowns is almost non-existent, which means Swanson's biggest weakness in his TDD will not be put into question.

Both fighters do not like the ground and this bout will likely be a striking battle. I expect Swanson to dominate on the feet as he has done against his previous opponents. Most importantly, against someone who does not utilise takedown effectively, Swanson will be able to focus on outstriking the young Holloway.
:icon_arro:icon_arro:icon_arro:icon_arro
 
Really like OSP at dog odds against Cummins.

Anyone like hettes at +150? Brandao is a can after the first round
 
Swanson trained at a gym he opened up in Calil it looks like...

https://instagram.com/cubswanson/

I'm very fortunate to have my own home gym here in Indio, Ca. It's also a blessing to be able to give people the opportunity to chase their dreams. Just like I have :) #TRUMMA
 
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