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Translation: I got called out so many times that I had to scale back my idiocy. How has the thread changed exactly? It's still a bunch of guys on the internet talking about betting.
oh its changed a lot, I have changed. I don't do ridiculous 10 man parlays anymore, I don't bet all of my bankroll on an event lol. we now have hazak, oblivion retired lol, goodfella cant live bet anymore, wannabet and rogerfedorair both m.i.a, luca is winning, and so many other things.. only thing that hasn't changed is crewmans picking percentage.
I'm very surprised to see James Krause sitting as a +160 underdog in his bout against Jamie Varner. Jamie Varner is a scrappy vet with a solid wrestle-boxing based game but he is getting up there in "fight years" and is coming of a brutal KO at the hands of Abel Trujilo.
Technically, Krause got TKO'd by Bobby Green in his last outing, but as you all probably remember it was a super fishy/weird situation. Recap in the spoiler below.
Bobby Green had already gotten a point deducted after catching Krause in the cup twice within the first few minutes. He then hit Krause with a super low body kick (right on the belt line) which sparked some debate. Even watching the slow-mo replay it was hard to gauge the legality of the kick, but to me it looked like he caught the cup with the toes/lower foot but the main impact was right on the belt line. However I think it was clear the way Krause wen't down that he either was hurt to the groin, was trying to milk a close groin shot or somewhere in between those two.
In my opinion this loss really should not have impacted his stock at all, although the fight was short it was a close and technical stand up battle and Bobby Green is no chump. Krause was gathering some decent momentum with a good win streak and starting to move towards contendership before this fight. I feel like this might have impacted the opening lines/peoples betting patterns a lot, at least that's the only reason I can see for him sitting as a sizable dog.
After finally getting to the UFC and having an impressive debute against Barboza (in which I was on him as a solid dog *BRAG*) Jamie Varner has just gone 1-3. Granted his losses weren't the worst - he dropped a super close split decision to Tibau and getting KO'd by the stupidly powerful Trujilo and subbed by an absolute wizard on the mat in Joe Lauzon does not automatically make you a shitty fighter. But it just does not warrent being a solid favorite over James Krause in my opinion.
I feel like Krause will have the edge on the feet, he is a lot taller, more technical/versatile and will enjoy a decent reach advantage. He also knows how to utilize that reach with a long jab and good use of front kicks up the middle. Varner is gonna look to rush in with his combinations and TD's but I think Krause fights well enough going backwards to handle his aggression. He has a great kicking/kneeing game throwing a wide array of strikes with no wind up what so ever and I would not be surprised if we saw him catch Varner with one of those slick off-balance high kicks/knees. I think Krause will be able to be the matador and get the better of the more predictable bull.
While Varner does have a solid wrestling game he just doesn't have that smothering top control he would need to grind out a decision on the mat. That leaves Varners biggest chance of victory as keeping it even on the feet and scoring a TD or two per round and this is obviously not a super unlikely scenario but more often than not I see the younger Krause getting the better of Varner and winning via UD or a catching him and making a statement after his huge dissapointment at the last fight for the troops card.
I think James Krause ML has great value @ +140-160 - I'm honestly not even sure he should be the underdog here.
I apologize for the novel, I tried spoilering some of the less essential stuff but it still became a wall of text :icon_conf What are you guys thoughts on this match-up?
Thanks for the plays, was on the green for 2 days straight but took a slight loss here (about $10 i believe as i risk way less). Bautista losing does hurt me, not only because i had money on him but because i always support the spanish players. Hopefully Berdych crushes Tursunov
Krause was trying to milk that last shot by Green. He got up RIGHT after the fight was called so he obviously wasn't in that much pain.
I do agree that fight showed nothing for either guy really.
Varner has been facing really good fighters in the UFC so far. KO'd Barboza, lost a decision to Tibau in which he had him in trouble in the third round. Was beating Joe Lauzon before gassing and getting caught in the triangle (took that fight on short notice iirc) and got KO'd by Trujillo who has a lot of power in his hands.
1st quarter total points *odds for the Pacers game. I don't follow the sport its just a degen bet for 'action' lol
oh its changed a lot, I have changed. I don't do ridiculous 10 man parlays anymore, I don't bet all of my bankroll on an event lol. we now have hazak, oblivion retired lol, goodfella cant live bet anymore, wannabet and rogerfedorair both m.i.a, luca is winning, and so many other things.. only thing that hasn't changed is crewmans picking percentage.
1st quarter total points *odds for the Pacers game. I don't follow the sport its just a degen bet for 'action' lol
oh its changed a lot, I have changed. I don't do ridiculous 10 man parlays anymore, I don't bet all of my bankroll on an event lol. we now have hazak, oblivion retired lol, goodfella cant live bet anymore, wannabet and rogerfedorair both m.i.a, luca is winning, and so many other things.. only thing that hasn't changed is crewmans picking percentage.
what we have learned through the first 4 games of the OKC/LAC series:
other than game 1 and the 4th quarter of game 4, the thunder have looked pretty good against the clippers. westbrook and durant are going to get their points, but their role players ultimately decide the outcome of the game. game 3, ibaka shot like 9/10 and had 20 points which ultimately lead to the thunder win. come game 4, ibaka had 2 early threes and basically disappeared offensively the rest of the way which lead to the big comeback by the clippers. i think the doc rivers and the clippers have decided that they are going to make westbrook and durant beat them while limiting everyone else. the clippers' energy level and effort are a major x-factor in this game. IF they have come to play, they make it look easy
in my opinion, the clippers have a more talented team overall and are better coached. in a pivotal game, i like their chances to not only cover, but to maybe win outright.
I won't disagree I'm crazy, but when it comes to sports betting I'm crazy like a fox. Moreover, I have $20k spread across 3 books to prove it. :icon_twis
^^thats a bold prediction but I really think Tito is over the hill. Bellator is trying to hype him up before he finally retires. I won money on him against bader and was ecstatic but I just don't know if he has "it" anymore. Shlemenko is a great fighter and Tito is sub par at this point.
I don't think Tito has had "it" anymore since 2004-2005, but he's not fighting in the UFC, he's not fiighting a top LHW, he not even fighting a LHW at all; he's facing a small MW who unlike an Anderson Silva or Rick Franklin has never been one to move up and challenge LHW's. Indeed, Shlemenko is a great fighter, but he's a small MW, ffs, he's a small WW in most regards when you think of WW's like Woodley, LaFlare, Hector, Alves and Ildemar Alc
Ito has only been stopped inside of r1 once since '97 when Mezger got him and then by Lil Nog most recently. He has only been stopped inside 1.5 x3 whuch is by the aforementioned fighters & Rashad. I think it goes all 3 rnds.
I know the odds are wide but I'm surprised by this movement on Brooks. Chandler is so far beyond him, and it's short notice. I'm parlaying Chandler and will play him ITD if there's any value without hesitation. I'd cap Chandler at -700 to 800. Getting revenge on Awad doesn't put you in Chandler's stratosphere.
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