Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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I'm looking at the Ellenberger line movement, it says that some 10 days or so ago it was actually at +400. That's insane. After the square as fuck of the year card yesterday...
 
Gonna try and do less parlays this card, lets get this !
 
I'm looking at the Ellenberger line movement, it says that some 10 days or so ago it was actually at +400. That's insane. After the square as fuck of the year card yesterday...

Yup but only for a short while until it jumped back
 
Hope the odds on Cisco keep rising. I like both fighters but I've been on him his last 4 fights and will keep up with that against Mizugaki. I think in straight up striking he's got the edge so long as he can keep Mizugaki from clinching up with him for too long too often.

I think Mizugaki's overall game is better, but for a fight I envision as a mostly stand-up battle, I'll take Cisco as a big dog and hope he can disengage quick enough when Mizugaki goes to clinch or take him down. Mizugaki dominated Phan early on, but Phan has some of the worst striking defence in the division and even after getting battered for 10 minutes still won round 3.

I don't think Mizugaki will get to the point where I consider him a good line, so I'm hoping money keeps coming in on him so I can get a better price on Cisco. Rivera +250 or better would be ace.
 
Pretty happy I caught the Ellenberger +400 line. I'd honestly play him at current odds too. Lawler does not have the skillset to avoid this being a close fight imo. He could also have one of his slow nights that he used to have.

Also caught the jumps on Mo and Alvarez, so bummed that Alvarez got injured.
 
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I'm also leaning Ellenberger. Its a close fight and he can score TDs, just like Hendricks did.

I understand why the public is so high about Lawler, but the guy just fought less than 2 months ago in a complete war. His mind might still be on that fight.
 
Hindsight, but I didn't like the Davis bet, especially not in a parlay. Tough break with Bouchard. Getting owned by Schiavone on any surface is terrible.

Yea it was more for action she broke her early but it's women's tennis man it's flipping a coin...

I did a sloane -3.5/Venus -4.5 parlay and Sloane friggen won 3-6 6-3 6-3.. Half a point haha... Got to stay away from women's tennis.
 
I would like to think that too, but I'm still disgusted by that Macdonald fight in which he didn't do sh%t. Gets jabbed to death, doesn't try to do a single thing to try to switch it up (ie, takedowns, getting the fight against the fence, etc). We're in the last round and he's clearly en route to losing a decision, Rory throws a lazy kick, Ellenberger catches it and gets a free takedown. Does he go for broke and gnp? No, he spends the rest of the round resting in Rory's guard. Unbelievable.

It's always been a pet peeve of mine when it's a foregone conclusion you're going to lose on points and you've got like 1 minute left and aren't doing everything in your power to finish the fight. Especially when you got dynamite in your hands and turning it into a brawl would dramatically increase your chances of winning, or at least give you a coinflip chance of turning it around.


Might still make a play on Ellenberger, but I want better than the +200 he's currently sitting at. Sorry if that comes off as a bit self-entitled, I used to be pretty big on Ellenberger actually, but that last fight was just so frustrating to watch.

Yeah the Rory fight was terrible I do think he was just "off" that night but who really knows. I know he has had issues with Cardio before (The kampmann fight was a great example) so betting on Ellenberger isn't without it's risks.

Its amazing how things change in MMA if I would of told you 18 Months ago that Lawler would be a -300 favourite over Jake Ellenberger you would of slapped me for talking nonsense!

So many times a fighter under performs after a title shot loss its almost an automatic bet for me. Anyone who got +400 got a bargain
 
NBA

Went to throw $20 on miami -2.5 over 188.5 and accidentally did Miami half time over 94.5.. Hopefully it hits
 
Yeah the Rory fight was terrible I do think he was just "off" that night but who really knows. I know he has had issues with Cardio before (The kampmann fight was a great example) so betting on Ellenberger isn't without it's risks.

Its amazing how things change in MMA if I would of told you 18 Months ago that Lawler would be a -300 favourite over Jake Ellenberger you would of slapped me for talking nonsense!

So many times a fighter under performs after a title shot loss its almost an automatic bet for me. Anyone who got +400 got a bargain
Yeah, I would have maxxed +400 regardless of my reservations about Ellenberger's mindset. He's +220 now, he might get to +250-275 around fight time if it follows the trend of moderate dogs becoming bigger dogs nearing an event.
 
is the lawler/burger 5 round fight?

if its 3 I like burger to steal 2 decisive rounds and slow down in r3, yes much faith in him not respecting robbie but at same time he is not going to let this guy enter ufc and get 1-2 top wins and get a ufc shot. Robbies great don't get me wrong but it was not so long ago he lost against larkin and kennedy..... one solid win against the so called future champ rory and retiring a spent koshcheck and almost besting hendricks or beating him as some may say does bring his stock up but I feel jake prevails and snatchs a close decision here.

And then ill lay my disclaimer of LB lol ill see how R1 goes....
 
is the lawler/burger 5 round fight?

if its 3 I like burger to steal 2 decisive rounds and slow down in r3, yes much faith in him not respecting robbie but at same time he is not going to let this guy enter ufc and get 1-2 top wins and get a ufc shot. Robbies great don't get me wrong but it was not so long ago he lost against larkin and kennedy..... one solid win against the so called future champ rory and retiring a spent koshcheck and almost besting hendricks or beating him as some may say does bring his stock up but I feel jake prevails and snatchs a close decision here.

And then ill lay my disclaimer of LB lol ill see how R1 goes....

Your argument against lawler is his MW run though isn't it? Was larkinz at MW?

It's hard to lay money on ellenburger because he hasn't ever really looked that good in the 2nd rounds of fights.
 
Your argument against lawler is his MW run though isn't it? Was larkinz at MW?

It's hard to lay money on ellenburger because he hasn't ever really looked that good in the 2nd rounds of fights.

The one fight of Ellenberger's that I remember where he didn't gas out is where he was barely active and won a boring decision again Hieron.
 
NBA

Went to throw $20 on miami -2.5 over 188.5 and accidentally did Miami half time over 94.5.. Hopefully it hits

Lucky break Brooklyn made a come back but typical lebron performance.

Last $10 on miami -2.5 o187.5

Also lebron o27.5 is looking really good also.
 
I'm surprised so many of you guys are leaning Ellenberger at the current line. I already put down 2U on Lawler @ -250 I honestly think we're gonna see an overmatched Jake afraid to engage once he feels the power of Lawler.

I see a lot of similarities between Hendricks and Ellenberger - both guys are strong and stocky wrestlers who packs some serious power but Hendricks is pretty much better everywhere in my opinion (Wrestling/grappling, striking, power and especially cardio and chin). I just don't see him being able to do nearly as well as the champ did. I'm expecting Lawler to either get a finish here or turn Ellenberger into a tentative fighter once he connects. Obviously Ellenbergers power is to be respected but Lawler is crafty and has a solid beard.

The only things that worries me slightly here are the wildcards such as Ellenbergers potentially improved game and gas tank but honestly I think Robbie beats any version of Ellenberger. I also doubt he will be lacking motivation after losing the title fight as some illuded to. It was a close match and he knows it likely won't take more than two good performances to get another crack at the belt.

I'm all over Lawler @ -250 and will be looking closely at the KO/TKO props when they come out.
 
The reason why Ellenberger looked bad in the Rory fight imo is because he mentally quit and also he was trying to conserve his cardio that's why he started to pour it on in the 3rd round, but as soon as he took Rory down, Rory was very active on bottom and because Ellenberger was mentally beat he could not attempt any meaningful offense. The bell pretty much saved Ellenberger from Rory reversing him or I think it was a kimura attempt (I cant remember exactly haven't seen the fight since the fight actually happened)

But anyway If Ellenberger decides to mix his striking with his wrestling he is definitely a live dog.
 
Yeah, I'll be playing Ellenberger if his odds get ridiculous. If not, I think Lawler TKO is the way to go. His striking is more technical and he puts Jake away. I think Jake's only chance is a legit haymaker. He's good at rushing in and surprising his opponent but he won't have that luxury with Lawler.
 
Lucky break Brooklyn made a come back but typical lebron performance.

Last $10 on miami -2.5 o187.5

Also lebron o27.5 is looking really good also.

And it hits damn dude called that game pretty well but it's not hard to call lebron having a blinder. He seems to have a big rivalry with peirce and hit brings the best out of him, missing a free throw to get his half century guy is an absolute monster.

Need Duncan o15.5 hoping blazers out up a fight or Duncan will sit out half the game so he can rest.

Also did a diamondbacks/o5.5 in kings/ducks game.

BOL
 
i already think ellenberger's odds are way off at +240. if he wrestles (IF), he is a slight FAVORITE to me. am i concerned that he won't try to? like in the macdonald fight? absolutely.

but +240? hell yea, i'm betting it.
 
im a juggernaut fan and wouldn't bet on ellenberger for this fight, it can go either way imo.........
 
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