Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets! (Part II)

[Goreds1994]

I just think at better than 2 to 1 odds and considering Fergusons layoff, this is the bet to make honestly. If MJ decisioned Ferguson, I think Kikuno could recreate a similar scenario. I'll go back and watch some tape on Ferguson though.

Ferguson doesn't have some crazy layoff though. He fought in October. 7 months isn't that crazy. Kikuno fought in January. The bigger factor imo is Kikuno has never fought in the US I believe.

MJ is better than Kikuno as well and is a very good wrestler so he could properly mix it up. Not to mention Ferguson broke his arm in r1 and that really hurt him in that fight.

I think Ferguson beats MJ in a rematch. I've been driving Ferguson's bandwagon since his first TUF fight though so I might be just a tad biased lol.

 

[betterthanjones]

You guys see value in Trinaldo? I wanted to make a play on him initially but at these odds I'll hold or go with Chiesa. Trinaldo just fades so so badly in every fight.

Ferguson is very solid IMO and I don't rate Kikuno much but that line is steep.

Pichel, anyone? He might be my dog if this card like I mentioned earlier on.

 

[Goreds1994]

Trinaldo is a beast early but he fades. Chiesa is not the best but he is a good grappler and showed power against Masvidal almost knocking him out. I think Trinaldo in r1 if that prop gets released or Chiesa afterwards. He's an in your face guy. If Trinaldo can't get him out there early I think he fades badly and gets subbed like he did against Hallman.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Generous paying odds:

Ellenburger ITD +560
Krause dec +390
Henderson dec +1215
Dillashaw dec +995

Just sayin... lol. Could be used as excellent hedges especially at it's current value.

 

[Turtleguard]

I will be rooting for Kikuno but he looked crappy in his debut imo, and Ferg looked great recently and should have a big size advantage. Ferg prob smasheshim.

 

[ninjadeathcult]

Generous paying odds:

Ellenburger ITD +560
Krause dec +390
Henderson dec +1215
Dillashaw dec +995

Just sayin... lol. Could be used as excellent hedges especially at it's current value.

The Ellenberger ITD line jumped out to me as well before I looked into it.

The only person to KO lawler was nick Diaz 10 years ago and since then he has fought much more powerful strikers and not been T/KO'D again so I have to think that its pretty likely that Ellenberger doesn't T/KO him in this fight.

So that leaves submission. with Ellenberger only having 5 submissions 3 if you don't include submission (punches) out of 29 wins . Although Lawler has 5 losses by Sub he hasn't been subbed since he fought Jacare in 2011 and that wasn't until the 3rd so that to me rules out a reasonable chance of a Submission happening.

So more likely if Ellenberger was to win it would be by Decision +325 but for another $1.35 you may as well bet Ellenberger SU +190 just to cover you.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

The Ellenberger ITD line jumped out to me as well before I looked into it.

The only person to KO lawler was nick Diaz 10 years ago and since then he has fought much more powerful strikers and not been T/KO'D again so I have to think that its pretty likely that Ellenberger doesn't T/KO him in this fight.

So that leaves submission. with Ellenberger only having 5 submissions 3 if you don't include submission (punches) out of 29 wins . Although Lawler has 5 losses by Sub he hasn't been subbed since he fought Jacare in 2011 and that wasn't until the 3rd so that to me rules out a reasonable chance of a Submission happening.

So more likely if Ellenberger was to win it would be by Decision +325 but for another $1.35 you may as well bet Ellenberger SU +190 just to cover you.

I think the burger has a solid chance at landing a KO just as much as Robbie has one. Theres no solid evidence to back up that claim other than the 18 KO's on his record but I wouldn't rule out that option for the price of +560. It's not like Robbie is just gonna cake walk right thru his punches. He'll need to mind his Ps and Qs to get through this fight.

Coming off that stinker against Rory, I'm thinking Jake will be a little more risky to reap the rewards of taking out the most recent title contender.

I'm an advocate of betting whatever pays the most so you can take my opinion with a grain of salt.

 

[Goreds1994]

Ellenberger could theoretically KO Lawler. Ellenberger has a ton of power. He had Condit badly badly hurt in their fight and Condit has one of the better chins in MMA.

 

[arrelione]

I don't remember Holdsworths fights too well. Why is Camus +310 against him?

 

[ninjadeathcult]

Ellenberger could theoretically KO Lawler. Ellenberger has a ton of power. He had Condit badly badly hurt in their fight and Condit has one of the better chins in MMA.

I'm not saying its impossible or anything he absolutely has the striking and the power to KO Lawler but I think Lawler is defensively very savy . He knows how to not get KTFO basically.

I think the burger has a solid chance at landing a KO just as much as Robbie has one. Theres no solid evidence to back up that claim other than the 18 KO's on his record but I wouldn't rule out that option for the price of +560. It's not like Robbie is just gonna cake walk right thru his punches. He'll need to mind his Ps and Qs to get through this fight.

Coming off that stinker against Rory, I'm thinking Jake will be a little more risky to reap the rewards of taking out the most recent title contender.

I'm an advocate of betting whatever pays the most so you can take my opinion with a grain of salt.

Thats a really good point he was universally shunned for that fight so who knows he could come in aggressive and get a KO. Im not locked into anything in this bet as yet I can see that +560 is tempting for sure

 

[waiguoren]

Just watched Bellator. All 3 judges giving Brooks the 5th is probably the craziest bit of judging I've seen in my 9 years of watching this sport.

 

[Ukram]

I think the burger/lawler fight will be epic, agree with the current thoughts of robbie being a good choice I think he has the better chin also and more durable but at the same time I reckon the burger will not fight rory passive and cost him his place amongst the top 3 or no1 spot which is where he still feels he should be.

This should be his fight where he proves it, I expect burger to come out strong in the first 2 rounds with take downs and gnp or landing a bomb or 2 r3 robbie will make his come back over a tired or gassed out surviving burger. Will be keeping a close eye on the live bet odds its perhaps impossible to predict such a fight but it will be close, if it was 5 rounds robbie would be my pick, otherwise burger excels in these 3 round fights but getting 2 decent rounds under him usually.

 

[Oblivian]

I made a play on Trinaldo. It's hard for me to call Chiesa the favorite here, but Chiesa has proved me wrong more than once. Trinaldo should be fine as long as he doesn't give up his back.

 

[EckY]

Problem with Trinaldo is his age, the fact he fades hard after the first and that this is his first fight in the US I think.

 

[JayPrimetown]

so the 7 preliminary fights for ufc 173 have barely BUDGED in about 24 hours now since release. the least i've ever seen for a ufc ppv.

where the heck is there value, here!? lines set pretty damned well...

Have to agree here. Oddsmakers capped these fights really well.

 

[GAP14]

Idk why I compared MJ to Kikuno you guys are right. MJ is way more of an athlete and can get away with certain stuff Kikuno can't. That being said, I still like Kikuno at better than 2 to 1 odds. I might hedge with Ferguson by decision before the fight.

 

[GAP14]

Great parlay:

Holds worth + Iaquinta + DC by Decision

Pays out at virtually 2 to 1

 

[cberasi]

It seems like at this stage in Varner's career he has put emphasis on putting on a good show for the fans as he knows his chances at climbing the ladder towards a contender position is improbable. I think him and Krause will go at it and like the U2.5 at +130

 

[EzFlyer]

I don't remember Holdsworths fights too well. Why is Camus +310 against him?

tuf winner. alpha male prospect, unbeaten. good height for 135, decent hands.. above average wrestling and FANTASTIC bjj.

camus will be a test but holdsworth should be fine. he's going to dwarf camus, also.. 5-6" taller, i believe. camus will need to probably land big shots on the feet to hurt holds, considering how they match up, and the odds of that are probably less than 1/4, so i don't see value at this point on him at +310

 

[EzFlyer]

so far i'm:

barao ITD -160: 0.8u (should've done U4.5)

ellenberger +240: 0.5u (should've done more)

NOT lawler ITD -150: 1.5u

trinaldo +123: 2u

considering tons, but largely disappointed in most of the lines. might end up w/a stab at hendo.. and i was considering dillashaw stab (not out of the question) but put a little on barao ITD, already, so... yea...