Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets! (Part II)

Status
Not open for further replies.
EckY said:
Problem with Trinaldo is his age, the fact he fades hard after the first and that this is his first fight in the US I think.
Click to expand...

also worried about his cardio, but it will be live bettable (feature fight of FS1 prelims), so i am pretty happy w/the strat of "trinaldo prefight, live hedge if necessary after rd 1"

also, think this is kikuno's first fight in the states, too, for what it's worth
 
I think Camus has shown some gradual improvement with every fight, doesn't hurt he's fighting out of Roufusport. That said, I think this isn't a good (won't go as far as to say bad) style match up for him.
 
5/19 MLB/NBA/NHL
Mlb:
Houston +1.5..60-50
Braves under 7.. 62-50
Nationals/royals parlay 50-75
Tigers under 7.5.. 57-50

NBA:
Thunder +5.5.. 44-40

Nhl:
Rangers 50-50
 
Baseball

was down 5 units on my posted plays a few days ago,disapointing day that I looked past some stuff.I'm gonna give it another try here to win some of this money back. On a day with limited baseball, I am recommending just one parlay.

***this is a combination of the Moneylines from big favorites today: Washington(Strasburg) + LA Angels. This pays +141, and i will bet 1.5units towin 2.1 units.***. >>>>>Im on Wash b/c playing @home against sorry Reds, and Angels are against lowly Astros.

A big reason I believe in this play are the recent statistics: Strasburg has been dominant at home; and reds and their starter are on a big losing skid statistically plus have critical injuries.

Astros are also on quite the bad stretch, playing a hot Angels team, and the home/road splits favor the Angels. Very simply, the Angels are playing way better than the Ass-Troughs and outplaying them head-to-head sufficiently as well. Angels are starting pitcher Richards, of the significantly low ERA.

Let's get this $$$ up
 
betterthanjones said:
I think Camus has shown some gradual improvement with every fight, doesn't hurt he's fighting out of Roufusport. That said, I think this isn't a good (won't go as far as to say bad) style match up for him.
Click to expand...

Almost certain he is no longer with Roufusport. Too much juice for me to play Holdsworth straight but I don't mind putting him in a parlay. If the ITD line is good id play that too.

Burger was a great bet at above 2-1 odds and will be competitive. I think I might take a +3.5 points spread on him if it's offered.
Like Rivera's odds Mizu has been fighting well but I see a drop off at a certain point and I really like Rivera's skills.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
5/19
I'll post tennis props/cricket ltr (after I watch GoT)

Soccer:
Norway- molde -1/2,-1.. 60-50
Norway- odd grenland over 2.5..60-50

WTA:
Svitolina/Garcia/vidagany 100-89
Keys 40-40

ATP:
Melzer 70-50
Basic/Mathieu/Montanes parlay 100-78
Vesely 70-50
Click to expand...
went 3-0 and +142 tailing 3 random pics, you are the man
 
full props up for ufc.. (besides the extra lines for the 7 prelims, but general props up)

anyone liking any of the new ones?
 
betterthanjones said:
I think Camus has shown some gradual improvement with every fight, doesn't hurt he's fighting out of Roufusport. That said, I think this isn't a good (won't go as far as to say bad) style match up for him.
Click to expand...

Chico got kicked out of Roufus sport a while back bro.
 
Ferguson ITD +150
Holdsworth ITD -120 (maybe, sub line will be better)
Under 2.5 for Njok/Pichel +115
Clarke/Iaquinta goes to decision -110

Those lines look intriguing to me
 
hrmm, maybe

trinaldo DEC +450 was decent, it's dropped now

rivera DEC +505 maybe has value?
 
He did? Oh nuts well that's a minus point then. But still Camus hasn't been the most horrid must fade material in my list.

I like Njokuani/Pichel goes the distance, but I might be playing Pichel straight up instead.
 
JimGunn said:
Not to rub salt in anyone's wound but I just watched the third round of the Rampage vs King Mo fight with a fresh mind. Mo got one takedown and held Rampage down for exactly 1 minute and 20 seconds (3:20 to 2:10 on the clock), not the four plus minutes that one popular poster in this forum was claiming. And he did barely any strikes on his grounded opponent.

Mo's second takedown attempt was stuffed. Rampage outstruck Mo overall in the round, especially at the end of the round. I'm not sure exactly by how much because I can't find the FightMetric or other stats for significant strikes for this fight. Rampage was also clearly the initiator of action in the critical last thirty or so seconds, moving forward and landing more strikes than Mo leaving that impression of aggression to the judges. So I can see how the judges scored this round and the fight for Rampage. If someone has the official strike statistics please show me if they contradict what I am saying here

Mind you, I had $50 on Mo's money line at +210 and $50 on Mo by decision at +325 so I stood to make hundreds of dollars had the decision gone to Mo. But I can't agree with anyone saying that was a robbery or a fixed fight or that Mo got screwed by incompetent judges. On the contrary I won money on Will Brooks when I thought that he should clearly have had a draw or lost, which I thought was a far more egregious judging error. So it cuts both ways.
Click to expand...

One media member thought Rampage won out of like 16. And it wasn't just the td in r3 but the clinch work/control. Indeed, Rampage came forward but did nothing.

rille31 said:
went 3-0 and +142 tailing 3 random pics, you are the man
Click to expand...

Thx rille :)
 
Went 0-2 for Bellator.

Luca Fury - http://furysfightpicks.com/the-mma-oddscast-ufc-173-barao-vs-dillashaw-preview/

Barao - Dillashaw poor mans Faber, more power, better striker, advantage everywhere, via Sub

Cormier - shouldn't be a 90% winner, via takedowns, via UD

Lawler - better chin, Ellenberger always gasses, will get outstruck, via UD

Mizugaki - Rivera has power, Mizugaki underrated wrestler, line is accurate, no bet

Varner - Varner doesn't fight smart, fights for bonuses, no kicks, bad cardio, but skill wise he should win the fight, via UD

Trinaldo - close fight, not confident, Chiesa overrated, Trinaldo might gas so hard, he might get finished, it's going to be a sweat, 50/50 fight, dog or pass

Ferguson - great chin, size and reach, Kikuno bad fight IQ, not aggressive

Holdsworth - more ways to win, line is too high, untested, Camus bad fight IQ, dog or pass, via Sub

Iaquinta - stuff takedowns, survive first round, Clarke bad cardio

Njokuani - jabs, kicks, via UD

Sicilia - Phillips lacks aggression

Michaud - both not UFC caliber, extremely raw, wrestling not good, but Li gets taken down every time, Li on the feet, Michaud wins 2 out of 3 on the ground, not confident

 
Goreds1994 said:
Ferguson ITD +150
Holdsworth ITD -120 (maybe, sub line will be better)

Clarke/Iaquinta goes to decision -110
Click to expand...

i'm thinking iaquinta -3.5 might be decent if cheap enough

alos: U2.5 is like same price as holdsworth ITD, for what it's worth

oh and: kikuno got subbed by alvarez like.. 5 years ago i think? only time he's been finished, but maybe ferg can... idk..
 
I think Ferg could sub or KO him. He has dynamite in his hands and grappling is improving. I could be wrong there. He's going to be a lot bigger than Kikuno and this is his first fight in the US. Going to be an adjustment for him.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
5/19
I'll post tennis props/cricket ltr (after I watch GoT)

Soccer:
Norway- molde -1/2,-1.. 60-50
Norway- odd grenland over 2.5..60-50

WTA:
Svitolina/Garcia/vidagany 100-89
Keys 40-40

ATP:
Melzer 70-50
Basic/Mathieu/Montanes parlay 100-78
Vesely 70-50
Click to expand...

Tennis

Awesome picks today. Won on every bet besides Basic. :icon_chee
 
So far I only have a 2u parlay of Holdsworth + Iaquinta at -150, and a little .5u stab at Hendo by tko at +900.
 
Ez I like that decision line on Francisco too at 500
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,075
Messages
55,466,038
Members
174,785
Latest member
JoyceOuthw

Share this page

Back
Top