Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets! (Part II)

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Many regular MMA bettors probably had most of their funds tied up in Bellator last night. I know I barely looked at the UFC 173 lines before today.

I think I'm going to start betting a lot more underdogs in general. I just did a thought experiment for this upcoming UFC card. I figure that very conservatively, if one were to bet the same amount on all twelve underdogs, the amount of underdog victories out of the twelve bouts that one would need to break even is as low as between four and five.

Some numbers for example: Betting $20 on all twelve fights equals a $240 investment. Being conservative and throwing out the main and co-main events which are both +550 dog odds and just averaging underdog odds in the other ten bouts leads to a low estimate of +175.

Now if only five out of twelve underdogs win that leads to a return of $20 x 1.75 or $35 x 5 wins or $175 profit total minus the loss of $140 (7 bets x $20) or a $35 profit overall for the experiment. Again, this is using average numbers for the underdog odds and even going way out of the way to throw out the two higher outliers in the main and co-main events. If either one of the underdogs in the main or co-main events hit the return would be much higher indeed.

Just something I was thinking about looking at the lines and recalling all the recent upsets.

Plz dont bet blindly... theres no point...
 
Yeah I've cooled down a lot since this morning but will still stand by my decision to never bet Bellator again. They lost a lot of future action, buys, and credibility with that PPV. Bjorn would be smart to not do one for a loooong time. So knowing him, we'll see a promo for the next Bellator PPV next month lol

Hit the over in the Heat/Indiana game today. Probably gonna stay away from tomorrow's NBA game or play the Spurs small.
 
one of the most fucked up nights of fights in mma history.

Understatement of the fucking century.

Horrible night for me. Can't believe Tito is the only thing that turned it from a severe loss into a simply bad one. The decisions hardly mattered for me (I really thought Chandler would stop this fight).

Chandler was the squarest bet in the history of MMA. We have Saad Awaad to thank for this. Seriously
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it wasn't just a "bad decision" (though i think it was, or could've been a draw from 10-8 3rd)

brooks +900 was a flat out great bet. if he lost a close decisiont here, would have said the same thing.

brooks is the most talented guy to ever be +900 for a fight. that means he needs to win 10% of the time to break even. 10%. he could land a huge shot, chandler could get injured, chandler could get a cut, brooks could outwrestle him, brooks could outcardio him, or, yes, could be just competitive and get a close (bad) decision... etc, etc..

+900 was a great bet.

Exactly why I thought betting Brooks was a must. I mean, at -1000 + the bookie is essentially guaranteeing a victory for the favorite; Brooks has too much talent to be +900 vs. ANY LW in MMA.

I thought he won r3 10-8 and r4 was 10-9 .. Have to watch again to see how the judges could possibly give him 1,2 or 5 homie :D

Any talk of saying that a fighter can't lose against another professional fighter is crazy even if one is much better skill wise. There are so many variables in MMA that almost anything can happen.

As far as Tito I made a bundle betting him to win last night because of the generous +440 odds available and his huge size advantage at weigh-ins. A $100 bet earning $440 was too good to pass up. I'm also damn glad that I didn't listen to the people that said that one should only bet Tito's Decision prop because he wasn't going to finish Alex. But I was under no impression that it was a guaranteed win. It was a calculated gamble based on value and real factors like his weight advantage and skill set against a very dangerous opponent that paid off. Anyone that says differently is just indulging in bad gambler talk.

Rack, brah, you gotta relax a bit man. It's your first day in the thread and you're not making any friends so far. A lot of good gamblers in here but if you piss everybody off then they're gonna think you're an asshole and ignore you. Just trying to help you out here b/c this is becoming a clusterfuck.

I was on Tito but he's old, he had been off for a long time, he had one win in what seems like forever, and Schlemenko is small but he could've easily slammed a shin or left hand into Tito's liver and that would've been it. Even if Tito had value at his line, there were definitely ways he could've lost including winning a rd then gassing hard like he's been known to do. Like I said, I was on Tito but it's risky to go big on considering it's......... Tito.

I thought Tito decision was an absolute attrocious bet (if that is all you played) b/c you were already get great odds SU.

I'm not in the "it was rigged" camp. I really think Alex has too much pride to let that happen.

But, I say this, and yet I can't epain TWO judges finding 3 rounds to give to Brooks or THREE judges gving Rampage the las round unamiously.

But, never underestimate the power of human stupidity, OJ Simpson, Casey Anthony, and George Zimmerman had 36 jurors between the three of them, and not a single one held out for a guilty verdict. And we think humans can't fuck up a fight? :icon_neut

Line movement

Opening odds / Current odds

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Love Trinaldo @ + odds; think he gets Chiesa outta there early.

Might take a stab at Kikuno as he matches up really well w/ Tony plus Ferg's been out foreer. Also, Dillashaw odds starting to reach playable territory.

I like a Iaquinta + DC + Holdsworth parlay too
 
Plz dont bet blindly... theres no point...

Given the numbers I crunched above I wouldn't be surprised if this underdog betting strategy could do better than many who put hours of thought into their carefully researched and selected array of picks. Not to mention the amusement derived from such an experiment.
 
Media

Mo/Rampage
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Brooks/Chandler
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Two judges gave Brooks r5
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Not to rub salt in anyone's wound but I just watched the third round of the Rampage vs King Mo fight with a fresh mind. Mo got one takedown and held Rampage down for exactly 1 minute and 20 seconds (3:20 to 2:10 on the clock), not the four plus minutes that one popular poster in this forum was claiming. And he did barely any strikes on his grounded opponent.

Mo's second takedown attempt was stuffed. Rampage outstruck Mo overall in the round, especially at the end of the round. I'm not sure exactly by how much because I can't find the FightMetric or other stats for significant strikes for this fight. Rampage was also clearly the initiator of action in the critical last thirty or so seconds, moving forward and landing more strikes than Mo leaving that impression of aggression to the judges. So I can see how the judges scored this round and the fight for Rampage. If someone has the official strike statistics please show me if they contradict what I am saying here

Mind you, I had $50 on Mo's money line at +210 and $50 on Mo by decision at +325 so I stood to make hundreds of dollars had the decision gone to Mo. But I can't agree with anyone saying that was a robbery or a fixed fight or that Mo got screwed by incompetent judges. On the contrary I won money on Will Brooks when I thought that he should clearly have had a draw or lost, which I thought was a far more egregious judging error. So it cuts both ways.
 
Yeah I've cooled down a lot since this morning but will still stand by my decision to never bet Bellator again. They lost a lot of future action, buys, and credibility with that PPV. Bjorn would be smart to not do one for a loooong time. So knowing him, we'll see a promo for the next Bellator PPV next month lol

Hit the over in the Heat/Indiana game today. Probably gonna stay away from tomorrow's NBA game or play the Spurs small.

I'm prolly going to exclusively bet bellator from now on

So many mismatches and dominant performances

Chandler only throws two combos has good forward wrestling gives up his back and seemed very underwhelming

I bet him on name value without even seeing brooks

What a beast was huge good wrestler had more versatile striking and won that fight

They gonna keep feeding Tito mismatches

The dude doing all the dancin against Rainey was easy money

All the UFC fights are usually competitive

Bellator should be easy picking
 
Yeah I've cooled down a lot since this morning but will still stand by my decision to never bet Bellator again. They lost a lot of future action, buys, and credibility with that PPV. Bjorn would be smart to not do one for a loooong time. So knowing him, we'll see a promo for the next Bellator PPV next month lol

Hit the over in the Heat/Indiana game today. Probably gonna stay away from tomorrow's NBA game or play the Spurs small.

Same here. I cooled down A LOT, but like you stand by my decision to never bet Bellator again. I may watch depending on fights, but would NEVER by another PPV to support them bastards. If Bjorn had came out and admitted the judges got it wrong and handled it differently I may look at it differently, but he backed up their b.s like he was the Tennessee AC's attorney. I don't bet on KSW B?C IT"S SHADY 7 I won't bet on BELLATOR either. Sucks too.
 
I don't care if it's "easy" money (which it's not). Ask any long term bettor in this thread, 80% of people have lost their ass betting Bellator because they simply wanted a little action. The UFC has a more professional background and with proper research a bettor *should* come out on top. Of course, this is MMA and anything can happen. But Bellator and smaller orgs are by and large, are a crapshoot.

Just because dogs were running wild last night doesn't mean that Bellator is easy money. In this case it meant that Bellator judges weren't doing their jobs right and some fighters even allowed fight rigging to be introduced into the MMA rhetoric because they performed THAT BAD. I respect fighters for what they do but I won't respect shady organizations that pay them.

I can hear you now, "But the UFC has had bad decisions!!" Yes, every org has and that's not the point. What we witnessed last night in THREE CONSECUTIVE FIGHTS was something else and should be heavily looked into by Athletic Commissions. That was absurd.
 
Same here. I cooled down A LOT, but like you stand by my decision to never bet Bellator again. I may watch depending on fights, but would NEVER by another PPV to support them bastards. If Bjorn had came out and admitted the judges got it wrong and handled it differently I may look at it differently, but he backed up their b.s like he was the Tennessee AC's attorney. I don't bet on KSW B?C IT"S SHADY 7 I won't bet on BELLATOR either. Sucks too.

The worst part was I went to sleep pissed I didn't see enough value in Brooks to bet him. Then I wake up and check my Mo by decision bet. Read this thread and just started smh lol. Fuckin Bellator
 
Also, sorry to post whore but I'm gonna go ahead and endorse a play on Kikuno. I just laid down two units on him at +230 which is ridiculous. Pretty sure the line won't get any better than this and he matches up extremely well with Ferguson as GF said. This might be the best value on the card
 
Love Trinaldo @ + odds; think he gets Chiesa outta there early.

Might take a stab at Kikuno as he matches up really well w/ Tony plus Ferg's been out foreer. Also, Dillashaw odds starting to reach playable territory.

I like a Iaquinta + DC + Holdsworth parlay too

my thoughts exactly
 
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I guess we'll find out, but I think Ferguson is going to wreck Kikuno. Ferguson is a better wrestler and his striking is just as good as Kikuno's. He has a granite chin (watch that Yves fight. Edwards landed multiple flush headkicks). His grappling is getting better (subbed Mike Rio in his last fight).
Kikuno's record looks nice, but his 3 biggest fights are all losses (Hirota, Alvarez, JZ).
 
I just think at better than 2 to 1 odds and considering Fergusons layoff, this is the bet to make honestly. If MJ decisioned Ferguson, I think Kikuno could recreate a similar scenario. I'll go back and watch some tape on Ferguson though.
 
Also, sorry to post whore but I'm gonna go ahead and endorse a play on Kikuno. I just laid down two units on him at +230 which is ridiculous. Pretty sure the line won't get any better than this and he matches up extremely well with Ferguson as GF said. This might be the best value on the card

Fergie did break his hand in the 1st round in the MJ fight I believe.

Ps. You have the best av the gif makes me laugh everytime.


Uefa champion league bet

Even with costa most likely out I'm going to play the O2.5 at $2.05 odds now I just think this will be a 2-1 or 2-2 and go into extra time.

Also liking QPR over derby but I'll look into that
 
I guess we'll find out, but I think Ferguson is going to wreck Kikuno. Ferguson is a better wrestler and his striking is just as good as Kikuno's. He has a granite chin (watch that Yves fight. Edwards landed multiple flush headkicks). His grappling is getting better (subbed Mike Rio in his last fight).
Kikuno's record looks nice, but his 3 biggest fights are all losses (Hirota, Alvarez, JZ).

now that i've seen more videos i will pass this fight because i thing you are right. very close to my eyes.

i'm thinking to bet TJ by decision.
 
I wouldn't compare Kikuno to anything like Michael Johnson. Michael likes to bounce around while Kikuno likes to stalk his opponents flat footed with his hands out like a mummy (That's not a knock on him btw.)

Certainly an interesting style though that could pose some threats to Ferguson. I like his body kicks and I think his clinch is pretty strong seeing how he had Alvarez in trouble in that first round because of it. Though I wouldn't recommend a play on Ferguson @ -270, I'd have to see props to fully assess this fight.

Another thing to note is, Ferguson's style is pretty unorthodox as well. He throws a steady diet of uppercuts pretty effectively while Kikuno likes to leaves his hands out like a mantis in order to avoid hooks.

I will admit I don't know how Kikuno's career looked as of recent but I'm basing this off of what I remember from him years ago.

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My play of the card will be on Trinaldo over Chiesa. I think he's the much better kickboxer and has great TDD as well as offensive grappling. I think oddsmakers are banking on Trinaldo to gas but if anything Chiesa isn't too far off in that department. Trinaldo has some powerful body shots as well. We saw how Masvidal dropped Cheisa with one and finished him with a submission. I'd fully endorse Trinaldo @ +120 but I feel like I need to see his weight cut first for obvious reasons not to mention he's also an old guy.
 
If MJ decisioned Ferguson, I think Kikuno could recreate a similar scenario.

I disagree, MJ is way better than Kikuno. He is faster, more accurate and in great shape. Kikuno has more power in his hands but he can't copy MJs game plan.
 
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