Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets! (Part II)

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Oblivian

Oblivian

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Part I here: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/official-ufc-173-betting-thread-post-your-bets-2737027/

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

I'm on hiatus after a rough streak besides a couple tiny plays. Current plays and totals below.

Trinaldo: $5 to win $6
Ferguson + Njokuani: $5 to win $4.70 Loss
Harris + Foster + Held/Jolly under 1.5: $2.50 to win $6.48 $9.08
Ellenberger: $2.50 to win $6
Holdsworth + Iaquinta + Cormier Dec: $2.50 to win $4.98
Volkov + Kongo: $2.50 to win $4.21 $6.71
Jardine/Roberts over 1.5 + King Mo +3.5 points handicap: $2.50 to win $4.31 $6.81
Ferguson + Miz/Rivera starts 2 + Barao/Dillashaw ITD: $2.50 to win $3.64

TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $107.74 Running Profit/Loss = -$19.76 (Approximate ROI for year -1.43%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2515.86 Total Profit = $2486.86 (Approximate ROI: 14.75%)
 
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Just read through the old thread. I skipped the Bellator PPV as I figured it wouldn't be worth the time or money. Chandler just can't catch a break on decisions.
 
Muhammed Lawal* +325 vs Quinton Jackson
Risking $250.00 To Win $812.50 X

Albert Sosnowski -1475* vs Wlodzimierz Letr V
Joseph Parker -1050* vs Marcelo Luiz Nascimento V
Juan Francisco Estrada -3600* vs Richie Mepranum V
Hernan Marquez -1300* vs John Mark Apolinario V
Luke Rockhold -1000* vs Tim Boetsch V
Jim Miller -180* vs Yancy Medeiros V
TJ Dillashaw/Renan Barao Under 4
 
I didn't really say much in the last thread since I've been on a such a downswing, but the +3.5 on Mo was a good line along with the decision line. If those guys fight 10 times, I think it would be a close, possibly split, decision most of the time.
 
one of the most fucked up nights of fights in mma history.
 
I had $50 on the pointspread. It was 4 am here and the main event was still not on, so I went to bed. When I was lying in bed I was thinking to myself about putting $200 more on Mo pointspread to cover myself a bit, but I was too lazy to get up again and turn on the computer again. Just so frustrated right now. Ugh.
 
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Horrible night for me. Can't believe Tito is the only thing that turned it from a severe loss into a simply bad one. The decisions hardly mattered for me (I really thought Chandler would stop this fight).
 
That was ridiculous. I'm pissed I didn't put money on Brooks. I recognized the trend for terrible judging and upsets last weekend but my mind wouldn't let me drop money on a +800 underdog. The craziest thing is he didn't even win the fight -_-

Grats to anyone that recognized how stupid Bellator judging is and hit those lines. I made money on Guerrero straight and a Guerrero Tito parlay. Ended up even on the night. Oh and I hit JMM by unanimous decision.
 
I'd like to see the judges score cards and see what round they gave Brooks apart from 3 and 4. Maybe 2nd? Chandler was losing the 5th but turned it up late and won. He should of went harder with punches from the mount after he let the arm triangle go though. Still one of my favorite fighters.
 
it wasn't just a "bad decision" (though i think it was, or could've been a draw from 10-8 3rd)

brooks +900 was a flat out great bet. if he lost a close decisiont here, would have said the same thing.

brooks is the most talented guy to ever be +900 for a fight. that means he needs to win 10% of the time to break even. 10%. he could land a huge shot, chandler could get injured, chandler could get a cut, brooks could outwrestle him, brooks could outcardio him, or, yes, could be just competitive and get a close (bad) decision... etc, etc..

+900 was a great bet.
 
EzFlyer said:
it wasn't just a "bad decision" (though i think it was, or could've been a draw from 10-8 3rd)

brooks +900 was a flat out great bet. if he lost a close decisiont here, would have said the same thing.

brooks is the most talented guy to ever be +900 for a fight. that means he needs to win 10% of the time to break even. 10%. he could land a huge shot, chandler could get injured, chandler could get a cut, brooks could outwrestle him, brooks could outcardio him, or, yes, could be just competitive and get a close (bad) decision... etc, etc..

+900 was a great bet.
Click to expand...

Think fightonomics had an article about UFC underdogs that were +700 or higher and they backtested all the results going back several years and blindly betting on all underdogs without adjusting one bit would lead to profit. Obviously backtesting doesn't mean much but so far the betting public have been underrating big underdogs.

--

My only bet was Ortiz, can't believe he was that big of an underdog. Don't care if it's a crush match on paper, fucking 2 weight classes apart.
 
Okay just read the part 1 thread and saw why my Mo by decision bet didn't cash. Fuck Bellator, never watching this shitty org again. Just off principle. They blatantly rigged things. Dana may be an asshole who occasionally tells some white lies to hype up a fight but Djork is a straight up pariah and should be excommunicated from MMA altogether. What a fucking joke.
 
baseball

not all that confident but on these small today

PIT
LAD
CIN
WAS -1.5
SEA-1.5
 
Apparently Viacom/Spike really wants to get rid of Bjorn.
 
efalk1322 said:
nice man! i wish my local book had live betting on tennis.

2 more points!
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yep, nailed O22.5 in first set, nailed some game prop bets (nailed a +1277 line, too, and ALMOST a second one) -- small risks, but yep.. f'in awesome. this is my best year yet capping tennis :)

hope peeps joined us on these two matches!
 
efalk1322 said:
Yea ill take Dana's straight forward no BS responses over Bjorn's scummy ways anyday
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SRL used to have a deal with espn or something with a kind of fnf type deal and Bjorn was a business partner of his in the early 2000's. Ray called Bjorn a "cancer to his company" so it's not the first time people have called Bjorn scummy, that's for sure.

Obviously the Bellator contract shit seems sketchy, too. Also, he allegedly shot a dog, I fucking love dogs, unless that was Cujo trying to take your nuts off, you can't be shooting dogs and have my respect. At least Dana doesn't kill dogs, not that I know of at least.
 
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