No Limit Hold 'Em Poker Discussion

[MikeMcMann]

I've quoted a bunch of you in the spoilers below not for what you wrote in the post but just as a quick way to tag you to this post if you want to discuss game play based on this very specific scenario.

I invite you to watch this video including Doug's analysis on the game play and see if you agree or to post where you disagree. I suggest you not read my analysis below until you have watched the video and know what your view is so my analysis does not bias yours.

This video is the perfect example of why I believe with pocket Aces (big pairs) you tend to win a smaller pot or lose a massive one, with few other options in between.



Table has 8 players.
Pocket AA 4 bets 7/6 suited and gets called heads up.

My analysis:

Pre flop:
- AA bet properly (good sizing) and by 4 betting announces 'I have a big hand'.
- In calling 7/6 suited (something I would do) he now recognizes that he needs a big flop to suck out and get paid but the implied odds are huge for him as he will have a chance to stack an opponent

If I am 7/6 suited I put the other guy on anything from QQ, KK, AA and maybe AK suited.
If I am AA here I put the other guy on middle pairs, AK, AQ and a few suited connector hands (in other words a lot of hands)

Flop: 8, 9, 10 rainbow.

- 7/6 suited has flopped a straight and the lead and is thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. HIs goal now is to get the big hand all-in.
- AA checks this very dangerous flop
- 7/6 bets, as he should


If I am AA there wIth that flop I go from feeling confident I am still ahead to now hoping I am but knowing that is a terrible flop for me.
I do not check that flop which signals 'pot control' or you might say 'fear' and instead I bet out continuing the line of "i had a big hand pre flop and its still a big hand now, I am not afraid to bet'.
I think checking almost always induces a bet whether he is ahead (set or straight) or behind with outs (10/J suited, 7/8 suited) or stone cold bluffing.

If AA thought he was ahead and the guy was the kind to stone cold bluff then the check, raise is a good strategy. But not here IMO on this board. You induce the other guy to take pot control when you have no clue where you are if you allow him to establish the bet and you just call.

Turn : K (backdoor flush possibilities)

So again I would bet out with my AA, again trying to establish strength. I think a big bet or shove here would get me to fold. I advertised strength and that I had a hand I was not quitting on at every stage. If you are bluffing into, good on you. If I do have a hand I won't fold and you are bluffing you take a big risk. So most times I think I am ok assuming I am beat.

If I don't bet out here with AA, then I again think I am advertising to the opponent I am trying to control the size of the pot and keep it small. I have an over pair I don't want to let go but I am nervous. If i have 10/J or 7/8 against that (check flop, check turn) I am doing big bets and shoving on him on either the Turn or River.

That is the problem imo with not betting your AA. With that flop and AA allowing 6/7 to dictate the betting on the Flop and Turn AA certainly cannot discount any of 8/8, 9/9, 10/10, 10/J suited, J/Q suited or 6/7 suited. AA only beats 2 of those hands 10/J and 7/8 suited. so that is why AA must force the betting IMO as he will never establishes at all where he stands otherwise.

if i bet my AA and got called, on the flop and turn great. I still assume i am likely ahead but recognize he might be trapping. But suddenly I think a hand like 10/J or 7/8 suited is more likely and looking for pot control and to hit. Sure he could be trapping a monster and shove the river putting me to a hero call or fold, but I think i can fold more often than not if I have a lot still behind. And i lost the minimum with only one bet per street.

What I would not do, is what Doug suggests after AA gets check/bet. I would not simply flat call the flop or turn.

If i am up against AA and he check calls each street, again I say 'he has a big hand but is not sure where he stands'. If I have him beat, I keep building the pot hoping to get him deep enough to hero call\ my river shove. If I am chasing with a hand like J/10 I want to send the signal I know you have a big pair and are beat, and if he folds on any street great. And if not I will put him to the big test to make a hero call on the River as I shove all in. Either I get him to fold a winning hand or call with losing one. Either way I got him to call multiple bets per street and maximized the pot.


------------


that above lays out the difficulty of not losing a big pot with AA, even if you play it right IMO. YOu might avoid the ALL in shove on the river but I believe you must put in big money prior to figure out where you are to make that big fold. If you do not put in big money prior you have no clue and invite bluffing with any and all hands even misses with no back door draws.


--------------

Now from the 7/6 side of things, I see him rarely losing a big pot here. He knows basically what his opponent has (AA, KK, QQ, AK suited) and he either flops big or folds.

Really the only hand that might call AA preflop with and lose a decent amount of chips is 10/J or 7,8, suited that also hits a flush draw. if AA bets each street, those two hands can justify chasing as long as they are getting proper pot odds. And losing with the proper pot odds if you don't improve is not bad play.

If those hand miss hitting anything strong, they fold most times and only loses the pre flop bet.


Thoughts??

Spoiler

I love poker in Vegas. I wish I could go there more often. It's been eons...

I find poker in Borgata (Atlantic City) pretty tough. it's mostly all regulars and they all know each other unless there's a big tourney but it brings out all the local pros within a state or two radius.

oh shit, now that sounds like a great game

Been in a funk lately. Last two poker games I've lost a couple hundred at 1-1. It's not the economics that hurt, it's just making decisions that I wouldn't have if I were playing like usual. I need to stop playing just because games need a player or two to run. If I'm not feeling my oats I'm too passive and sneaky, then I'll make some big bluff to end my night, trying to prime my pump. If I notice it, it's bad.

As a third party not fully following last convo in the thread, I appreciate the breakdowns.

I think it's one of those "agree to disagree" moments followed by "you had to be there". Sometimes you just get a feel (in Lewis' case the range).

I don't know, it's been awhile

If you get 3bet pre and their acting like they have Aces they don't. They have pocket Jacks.

What a great thread. I am all in. By reading the responses so far, i shouldnt feel under the gun to make good post, for fear of being cut off. Hope they dont lock this thread, would be a gut shot.

Playing tonight. Busted AA twice per for 100 bb.



AK suited and QQ.

You cracked someone's AA or you had your AA cracked?

 

[LEWIS540]

I've quoted a bunch of you in the spoilers below not for what you wrote in the post but just as a quick way to tag you to this post if you want to discuss game play based on this very specific scenario.

I invite you to watch this video including Doug's analysis on the game play and see if you agree or to post where you disagree. I suggest you not read my analysis below until you have watched the video and know what your view is so my analysis does not bias yours.

This video is the perfect example of why I believe with pocket Aces (big pairs) you tend to win a smaller pot or lose a massive one, with few other options in between.



Table has 8 players.
Pocket AA 4 bets 7/6 suited and gets called heads up.

My analysis:

Pre flop:
- AA bet properly (good sizing) and by 4 betting announces 'I have a big hand'.
- In calling 7/6 suited (something I would do) he now recognizes that he needs a big flop to suck out and get paid but the implied odds are huge for him as he will have a chance to stack an opponent

If I am 7/6 suited I put the other guy on anything from QQ, KK, AA and maybe AK suited.
If I am AA here I put the other guy on middle pairs, AK, AQ and a few suited connector hands (in other words a lot of hands)

Flop: 8, 9, 10 rainbow.

- 7/6 suited has flopped a straight and the lead and is thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. HIs goal now is to get the big hand all-in.
- AA checks this very dangerous flop
- 7/6 bets, as he should


If I am AA there wIth that flop I go from feeling confident I am still ahead to now hoping I am but knowing that is a terrible flop for me.
I do not check that flop which signals 'pot control' or you might say 'fear' and instead I bet out continuing the line of "i had a big hand pre flop and its still a big hand now, I am not afraid to bet'.
I think checking almost always induces a bet whether he is ahead (set or straight) or behind with outs (10/J suited, 7/8 suited) or stone cold bluffing.

If AA thought he was ahead and the guy was the kind to stone cold bluff then the check, raise is a good strategy. But not here IMO on this board. You induce the other guy to take pot control when you have no clue where you are if you allow him to establish the bet and you just call.

Turn : K (backdoor flush possibilities)

So again I would bet out with my AA, again trying to establish strength. I think a big bet or shove here would get me to fold. I advertised strength and that I had a hand I was not quitting on at every stage. If you are bluffing into, good on you. If I do have a hand I won't fold and you are bluffing you take a big risk. So most times I think I am ok assuming I am beat.

If I don't bet out here with AA, then I again think I am advertising to the opponent I am trying to control the size of the pot and keep it small. I have an over pair I don't want to let go but I am nervous. If i have 10/J or 7/8 against that (check flop, check turn) I am doing big bets and shoving on him on either the Turn or River.

That is the problem imo with not betting your AA. With that flop and AA allowing 6/7 to dictate the betting on the Flop and Turn AA certainly cannot discount any of 8/8, 9/9, 10/10, 10/J suited, J/Q suited or 6/7 suited. AA only beats 2 of those hands 10/J and 7/8 suited. so that is why AA must force the betting IMO as he will never establishes at all where he stands otherwise.

if i bet my AA and got called, on the flop and turn great. I still assume i am likely ahead but recognize he might be trapping. But suddenly I think a hand like 10/J or 7/8 suited is more likely and looking for pot control and to hit. Sure he could be trapping a monster and shove the river putting me to a hero call or fold, but I think i can fold more often than not if I have a lot still behind. And i lost the minimum with only one bet per street.

What I would not do, is what Doug suggests after AA gets check/bet. I would not simply flat call the flop or turn.

If i am up against AA and he check calls each street, again I say 'he has a big hand but is not sure where he stands'. If I have him beat, I keep building the pot hoping to get him deep enough to hero call\ my river shove. If I am chasing with a hand like J/10 I want to send the signal I know you have a big pair and are beat, and if he folds on any street great. And if not I will put him to the big test to make a hero call on the River as I shove all in. Either I get him to fold a winning hand or call with losing one. Either way I got him to call multiple bets per street and maximized the pot.


------------


that above lays out the difficulty of not losing a big pot with AA, even if you play it right IMO. YOu might avoid the ALL in shove on the river but I believe you must put in big money prior to figure out where you are to make that big fold. If you do not put in big money prior you have no clue and invite bluffing with any and all hands even misses with no back door draws.


--------------

Now from the 7/6 side of things, I see him rarely losing a big pot here. He knows basically what his opponent has (AA, KK, QQ, AK suited) and he either flops big or folds.

Really the only hand that might call AA preflop with and lose a decent amount of chips is 10/J or 7,8, suited that also hits a flush draw. if AA bets each street, those two hands can justify chasing as long as they are getting proper pot odds. And losing with the proper pot odds if you don't improve is not bad play.

If those hand miss hitting anything strong, they fold most times and only loses the pre flop bet.


Thoughts??

Pretty horrible play by Matusow.

But yes, this specific example proves AA is an awful hand.

ps Garret already put in 32 bb pre.

 

[SaiWa]

I've quoted a bunch of you in the spoilers below not for what you wrote in the post but just as a quick way to tag you to this post if you want to discuss game play based on this very specific scenario.

I invite you to watch this video including Doug's analysis on the game play and see if you agree or to post where you disagree. I suggest you not read my analysis below until you have watched the video and know what your view is so my analysis does not bias yours.

This video is the perfect example of why I believe with pocket Aces (big pairs) you tend to win a smaller pot or lose a massive one, with few other options in between.



Table has 8 players.
Pocket AA 4 bets 7/6 suited and gets called heads up.

My analysis:

Pre flop:
- AA bet properly (good sizing) and by 4 betting announces 'I have a big hand'.
- In calling 7/6 suited (something I would do) he now recognizes that he needs a big flop to suck out and get paid but the implied odds are huge for him as he will have a chance to stack an opponent

If I am 7/6 suited I put the other guy on anything from QQ, KK, AA and maybe AK suited.
If I am AA here I put the other guy on middle pairs, AK, AQ and a few suited connector hands (in other words a lot of hands)

Flop: 8, 9, 10 rainbow.

- 7/6 suited has flopped a straight and the lead and is thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. HIs goal now is to get the big hand all-in.
- AA checks this very dangerous flop
- 7/6 bets, as he should


If I am AA there wIth that flop I go from feeling confident I am still ahead to now hoping I am but knowing that is a terrible flop for me.
I do not check that flop which signals 'pot control' or you might say 'fear' and instead I bet out continuing the line of "i had a big hand pre flop and its still a big hand now, I am not afraid to bet'.
I think checking almost always induces a bet whether he is ahead (set or straight) or behind with outs (10/J suited, 7/8 suited) or stone cold bluffing.

If AA thought he was ahead and the guy was the kind to stone cold bluff then the check, raise is a good strategy. But not here IMO on this board. You induce the other guy to take pot control when you have no clue where you are if you allow him to establish the bet and you just call.

Turn : K (backdoor flush possibilities)

So again I would bet out with my AA, again trying to establish strength. I think a big bet or shove here would get me to fold. I advertised strength and that I had a hand I was not quitting on at every stage. If you are bluffing into, good on you. If I do have a hand I won't fold and you are bluffing you take a big risk. So most times I think I am ok assuming I am beat.

If I don't bet out here with AA, then I again think I am advertising to the opponent I am trying to control the size of the pot and keep it small. I have an over pair I don't want to let go but I am nervous. If i have 10/J or 7/8 against that (check flop, check turn) I am doing big bets and shoving on him on either the Turn or River.

That is the problem imo with not betting your AA. With that flop and AA allowing 6/7 to dictate the betting on the Flop and Turn AA certainly cannot discount any of 8/8, 9/9, 10/10, 10/J suited, J/Q suited or 6/7 suited. AA only beats 2 of those hands 10/J and 7/8 suited. so that is why AA must force the betting IMO as he will never establishes at all where he stands otherwise.

if i bet my AA and got called, on the flop and turn great. I still assume i am likely ahead but recognize he might be trapping. But suddenly I think a hand like 10/J or 7/8 suited is more likely and looking for pot control and to hit. Sure he could be trapping a monster and shove the river putting me to a hero call or fold, but I think i can fold more often than not if I have a lot still behind. And i lost the minimum with only one bet per street.

What I would not do, is what Doug suggests after AA gets check/bet. I would not simply flat call the flop or turn.

If i am up against AA and he check calls each street, again I say 'he has a big hand but is not sure where he stands'. If I have him beat, I keep building the pot hoping to get him deep enough to hero call\ my river shove. If I am chasing with a hand like J/10 I want to send the signal I know you have a big pair and are beat, and if he folds on any street great. And if not I will put him to the big test to make a hero call on the River as I shove all in. Either I get him to fold a winning hand or call with losing one. Either way I got him to call multiple bets per street and maximized the pot.


------------


that above lays out the difficulty of not losing a big pot with AA, even if you play it right IMO. YOu might avoid the ALL in shove on the river but I believe you must put in big money prior to figure out where you are to make that big fold. If you do not put in big money prior you have no clue and invite bluffing with any and all hands even misses with no back door draws.


--------------

Now from the 7/6 side of things, I see him rarely losing a big pot here. He knows basically what his opponent has (AA, KK, QQ, AK suited) and he either flops big or folds.

Really the only hand that might call AA preflop with and lose a decent amount of chips is 10/J or 7,8, suited that also hits a flush draw. if AA bets each street, those two hands can justify chasing as long as they are getting proper pot odds. And losing with the proper pot odds if you don't improve is not bad play.

If those hand miss hitting anything strong, they fold most times and only loses the pre flop bet.


Thoughts??

I mean that's a dream flop for 67 right there... Rainbow flop and he's only afraid on a higher straight... The only thing you are afraid of is QJ but only a loose drunk fool would four bet QJ. He called a 4-bet so i agree that if you are 67 then you're staring at AA, KK, maybe QQ, suited AK and if the player is a great pro then maybe some suited connectors but generally AA, KK, and QQ...

If I was AA I woulda been tempted to re-pop at the flop. Raise it another 7500.. If he calls or goes all in then i know i am in trouble. He knows I am holding a premium hand and he still calls me with that flop that means he's either got it or is crazy chasing. the K on the turn doesn't help at all because KK just pole-vaulted over you. Depending on who i am playing against i can see myself folding here. But most of time i am paying off and calling the rest of the way. It's terribly hard to fold AA...

This is a worst case scenario... I'd still rather stare down at AA instead of any other 2 cards...

 

[rearnakedchoke]

I probably would have gotten busted also. I would have bet big on the flop to end it there thinking was i was still leading. I may have slowed down with a big call, thinking set after the call, not straight.

 

[Makani]

I'm pretty cautious, I'd be scared of QJ and all the sets. Pocket 8/9s plays that hand the same way, maybe 10s depending on the player. But preflop and most flops, I am going as ham as possible with AA, I want as much money in as possible, especially pre. Especially pre, but if you know your opponent can talk themselves into you having AK it adds a lot of value on the flop too. The problem is that you're really only crushing bluffs. Best case scenario for you when you get called is a pair and a straight draw on either side, or maybe JJ. AA is a flop dependent hand, but you're basically trying to play your opponents cards when it comes down.

 

[MikeMcMann]

Another example of the big pocket pair having little choice but to lose a big pot or win a small pot. Not much in between.



Pocket Kings here plays pre flop and flop well IMO. Doyle calls looking to hit a set and win a huge bet (implied odds) or fold and pay nothing more if he does not.

Doyle min raised the flop bet which I think is perfect as it does not give KK enough info to really get a read.

Doyle preflop could have called with a hand like 6/6 or 10/10 or AK. So Doyles raise with any of those is appropriate and from KK perspective he does not know if he is being tested (bluffed) or is ahead, or is beat. He really has no clue.

So as KK, I tend to re-raise trying to figure out where i am, and if he shoves then, I fold. I do not agree with the commentator there who says 'if his hand is good enough to call, it should be good enough to shove'. NO WAY. First off I think he has to call Doyles min raise. If he is going to bet a big pair preflop, announce to his opponent I have a big pair and get called and then fold to any re-raise on the flop even in what looks like an ideal hand for his over pair, then he will be folding most over pairs and playing them will not be profitable. So he cannot simply fold.

But he also should not simply shove all in to Doyles min raise either as he is almost never getting called by a weaker hand and only almost always getting called by a monster. The only hand that might call where he is even money is a monster draw like flush/straight draw flop suited connectors that is up and down.

So again I probably re min raise Doyles flop raise, and if he shoves then I fold. If he simply calls and the turn comes a blank, I would feel I had to shove or call if he did hoping he was on the flush/straight draw combo and now only had the River card to come. At the flop the big draw is a slight favorite to the over pair but at the turn it drops to about 30% so I am happier getting it in with KK and being called. Of course Dolly turns over the 6/6 and I know I am beat minus a saving K on the river.



So once again why I say I hate playing those big pairs as I see almost no way to not lose a big pot when I do lose and I see almost no way (outside suited connectors chasing and missing) to win anything but a small pot when I do win.

How do any of you tagged below play this differently than the Ameteur did with KK to avoid losing a big pot or your entire stack?

Spoiler

I love poker in Vegas. I wish I could go there more often. It's been eons...

I find poker in Borgata (Atlantic City) pretty tough. it's mostly all regulars and they all know each other unless there's a big tourney but it brings out all the local pros within a state or two radius.

oh shit, now that sounds like a great game

Been in a funk lately. Last two poker games I've lost a couple hundred at 1-1. It's not the economics that hurt, it's just making decisions that I wouldn't have if I were playing like usual. I need to stop playing just because games need a player or two to run. If I'm not feeling my oats I'm too passive and sneaky, then I'll make some big bluff to end my night, trying to prime my pump. If I notice it, it's bad.

As a third party not fully following last convo in the thread, I appreciate the breakdowns.

I think it's one of those "agree to disagree" moments followed by "you had to be there". Sometimes you just get a feel (in Lewis' case the range).

I don't know, it's been awhile

If you get 3bet pre and their acting like they have Aces they don't. They have pocket Jacks.

What a great thread. I am all in. By reading the responses so far, i shouldnt feel under the gun to make good post, for fear of being cut off. Hope they dont lock this thread, would be a gut shot.

Playing tonight. Busted AA twice per for 100 bb.



AK suited and QQ.

You cracked someone's AA or you had your AA cracked?

 

[SaiWa]

Another example of the big pocket pair having little choice but to lose a big pot or win a small pot. Not much in between.



Pocket Kings here plays pre flop and flop well IMO. Doyle calls looking to hit a set and win a huge bet (implied odds) or fold and pay nothing more if he does not.

Doyle min raised the flop bet which I think is perfect as it does not give KK enough info to really get a read.

Doyle preflop could have called with a hand like 6/6 or 10/10 or AK. So Doyles raise with any of those is appropriate and from KK perspective he does not know if he is being tested (bluffed) or is ahead, or is beat. He really has no clue.

So as KK, I tend to re-raise trying to figure out where i am, and if he shoves then, I fold. I do not agree with the commentator there who says 'if his hand is good enough to call, it should be good enough to shove'. NO WAY. First off I think he has to call Doyles min raise. If he is going to bet a big pair preflop, announce to his opponent I have a big pair and get called and then fold to any re-raise on the flop even in what looks like an ideal hand for his over pair, then he will be folding most over pairs and playing them will not be profitable. So he cannot simply fold.

But he also should not simply shove all in to Doyles min raise either as he is almost never getting called by a weaker hand and only almost always getting called by a monster. The only hand that might call where he is even money is a monster draw like flush/straight draw flop suited connectors that is up and down.

So again I probably re min raise Doyles flop raise, and if he shoves then I fold. If he simply calls and the turn comes a blank, I would feel I had to shove or call if he did hoping he was on the flush/straight draw combo and now only had the River card to come. At the flop the big draw is a slight favorite to the over pair but at the turn it drops to about 30% so I am happier getting it in with KK and being called. Of course Dolly turns over the 6/6 and I know I am beat minus a saving K on the river.



So once again why I say I hate playing those big pairs as I see almost no way to not lose a big pot when I do lose and I see almost no way (outside suited connectors chasing and missing) to win anything but a small pot when I do win.

How do any of you tagged below play this differently than the Ameteur did with KK to avoid losing a big pot or your entire stack?

Again a worst case scenario for a top pair... You simply cannot win and hope to not lose as much (if not everything!).

The problem with your min re-raise is your bet compared to your remaining stack. After the flop Calacanis bet 15K then Brunson raises to 30K. Calacanis only had $66K (including the 15K) so a min re-raise would be another 15K (total of 45K). You're saving 15K if your opponent goes all in but you're inviting any chasers (practically everyone who didn't hit the flop but have outs) to call you for another card because they are priced in. You are also practically telling your opponent you have an overpair or better (most likely overpair). Since you're the big blind I'll just call with my set and watch you hang yourself on the turn or river. You will shove or call. You will not fold. If both of you had an additional 100K behind then I can see the sense in another re-raise and then fold.

 

[MikeMcMann]

Again a worst case scenario for a top pair... You simply cannot win and hope to not lose as much (if not everything!).

The problem with your min re-raise is your bet compared to your remaining stack. After the flop Calacanis bet 15K then Brunson raises to 30K. Calacanis only had $66K (including the 15K) so a min re-raise would be another 15K (total of 45K). You're saving 15K if your opponent goes all in but you're inviting any chasers (practically everyone who didn't hit the flop but have outs) to call you for another card because they are priced in. You are also practically telling your opponent you have an overpair or better (most likely overpair). Since you're the big blind I'll just call with my set and watch you hang yourself on the turn or river. You will shove or call. You will not fold. If both of you had an additional 100K behind then I can see the sense in another re-raise and then fold.

Good point and I agree. I was not paying attention to remaining stack size and you are 100% right.

I see almost no way to get away from KK there when you look at stack sizes post flop raise. Sometimes you just have to pay.

 

[LEWIS540]

Another example of the big pocket pair having little choice but to lose a big pot or win a small pot. Not much in between.



Pocket Kings here plays pre flop and flop well IMO. Doyle calls looking to hit a set and win a huge bet (implied odds) or fold and pay nothing more if he does not.

Doyle min raised the flop bet which I think is perfect as it does not give KK enough info to really get a read.

Doyle preflop could have called with a hand like 6/6 or 10/10 or AK. So Doyles raise with any of those is appropriate and from KK perspective he does not know if he is being tested (bluffed) or is ahead, or is beat. He really has no clue.

So as KK, I tend to re-raise trying to figure out where i am, and if he shoves then, I fold. I do not agree with the commentator there who says 'if his hand is good enough to call, it should be good enough to shove'. NO WAY. First off I think he has to call Doyles min raise. If he is going to bet a big pair preflop, announce to his opponent I have a big pair and get called and then fold to any re-raise on the flop even in what looks like an ideal hand for his over pair, then he will be folding most over pairs and playing them will not be profitable. So he cannot simply fold.

But he also should not simply shove all in to Doyles min raise either as he is almost never getting called by a weaker hand and only almost always getting called by a monster. The only hand that might call where he is even money is a monster draw like flush/straight draw flop suited connectors that is up and down.

So again I probably re min raise Doyles flop raise, and if he shoves then I fold. If he simply calls and the turn comes a blank, I would feel I had to shove or call if he did hoping he was on the flush/straight draw combo and now only had the River card to come. At the flop the big draw is a slight favorite to the over pair but at the turn it drops to about 30% so I am happier getting it in with KK and being called. Of course Dolly turns over the 6/6 and I know I am beat minus a saving K on the river.



So once again why I say I hate playing those big pairs as I see almost no way to not lose a big pot when I do lose and I see almost no way (outside suited connectors chasing and missing) to win anything but a small pot when I do win.

How do any of you tagged below play this differently than the Ameteur did with KK to avoid losing a big pot or your entire stack?

Show it a million times.....don't show the 5 million ties AA wins a big one, though.

 

[Ken Fresno]

I've quoted a bunch of you in the spoilers below not for what you wrote in the post but just as a quick way to tag you to this post if you want to discuss game play based on this very specific scenario.

I invite you to watch this video including Doug's analysis on the game play and see if you agree or to post where you disagree. I suggest you not read my analysis below until you have watched the video and know what your view is so my analysis does not bias yours.

This video is the perfect example of why I believe with pocket Aces (big pairs) you tend to win a smaller pot or lose a massive one, with few other options in between.



Table has 8 players.
Pocket AA 4 bets 7/6 suited and gets called heads up.

My analysis:

Pre flop:
- AA bet properly (good sizing) and by 4 betting announces 'I have a big hand'.
- In calling 7/6 suited (something I would do) he now recognizes that he needs a big flop to suck out and get paid but the implied odds are huge for him as he will have a chance to stack an opponent

If I am 7/6 suited I put the other guy on anything from QQ, KK, AA and maybe AK suited.
If I am AA here I put the other guy on middle pairs, AK, AQ and a few suited connector hands (in other words a lot of hands)

Flop: 8, 9, 10 rainbow.

- 7/6 suited has flopped a straight and the lead and is thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. HIs goal now is to get the big hand all-in.
- AA checks this very dangerous flop
- 7/6 bets, as he should


If I am AA there wIth that flop I go from feeling confident I am still ahead to now hoping I am but knowing that is a terrible flop for me.
I do not check that flop which signals 'pot control' or you might say 'fear' and instead I bet out continuing the line of "i had a big hand pre flop and its still a big hand now, I am not afraid to bet'.
I think checking almost always induces a bet whether he is ahead (set or straight) or behind with outs (10/J suited, 7/8 suited) or stone cold bluffing.

If AA thought he was ahead and the guy was the kind to stone cold bluff then the check, raise is a good strategy. But not here IMO on this board. You induce the other guy to take pot control when you have no clue where you are if you allow him to establish the bet and you just call.

Turn : K (backdoor flush possibilities)

So again I would bet out with my AA, again trying to establish strength. I think a big bet or shove here would get me to fold. I advertised strength and that I had a hand I was not quitting on at every stage. If you are bluffing into, good on you. If I do have a hand I won't fold and you are bluffing you take a big risk. So most times I think I am ok assuming I am beat.

If I don't bet out here with AA, then I again think I am advertising to the opponent I am trying to control the size of the pot and keep it small. I have an over pair I don't want to let go but I am nervous. If i have 10/J or 7/8 against that (check flop, check turn) I am doing big bets and shoving on him on either the Turn or River.

That is the problem imo with not betting your AA. With that flop and AA allowing 6/7 to dictate the betting on the Flop and Turn AA certainly cannot discount any of 8/8, 9/9, 10/10, 10/J suited, J/Q suited or 6/7 suited. AA only beats 2 of those hands 10/J and 7/8 suited. so that is why AA must force the betting IMO as he will never establishes at all where he stands otherwise.

if i bet my AA and got called, on the flop and turn great. I still assume i am likely ahead but recognize he might be trapping. But suddenly I think a hand like 10/J or 7/8 suited is more likely and looking for pot control and to hit. Sure he could be trapping a monster and shove the river putting me to a hero call or fold, but I think i can fold more often than not if I have a lot still behind. And i lost the minimum with only one bet per street.

What I would not do, is what Doug suggests after AA gets check/bet. I would not simply flat call the flop or turn.

If i am up against AA and he check calls each street, again I say 'he has a big hand but is not sure where he stands'. If I have him beat, I keep building the pot hoping to get him deep enough to hero call\ my river shove. If I am chasing with a hand like J/10 I want to send the signal I know you have a big pair and are beat, and if he folds on any street great. And if not I will put him to the big test to make a hero call on the River as I shove all in. Either I get him to fold a winning hand or call with losing one. Either way I got him to call multiple bets per street and maximized the pot.


------------


that above lays out the difficulty of not losing a big pot with AA, even if you play it right IMO. YOu might avoid the ALL in shove on the river but I believe you must put in big money prior to figure out where you are to make that big fold. If you do not put in big money prior you have no clue and invite bluffing with any and all hands even misses with no back door draws.


--------------

Now from the 7/6 side of things, I see him rarely losing a big pot here. He knows basically what his opponent has (AA, KK, QQ, AK suited) and he either flops big or folds.

Really the only hand that might call AA preflop with and lose a decent amount of chips is 10/J or 7,8, suited that also hits a flush draw. if AA bets each street, those two hands can justify chasing as long as they are getting proper pot odds. And losing with the proper pot odds if you don't improve is not bad play.

If those hand miss hitting anything strong, they fold most times and only loses the pre flop bet.


Thoughts??

Another example of the big pocket pair having little choice but to lose a big pot or win a small pot. Not much in between.



Pocket Kings here plays pre flop and flop well IMO. Doyle calls looking to hit a set and win a huge bet (implied odds) or fold and pay nothing more if he does not.

Doyle min raised the flop bet which I think is perfect as it does not give KK enough info to really get a read.

Doyle preflop could have called with a hand like 6/6 or 10/10 or AK. So Doyles raise with any of those is appropriate and from KK perspective he does not know if he is being tested (bluffed) or is ahead, or is beat. He really has no clue.

So as KK, I tend to re-raise trying to figure out where i am, and if he shoves then, I fold. I do not agree with the commentator there who says 'if his hand is good enough to call, it should be good enough to shove'. NO WAY. First off I think he has to call Doyles min raise. If he is going to bet a big pair preflop, announce to his opponent I have a big pair and get called and then fold to any re-raise on the flop even in what looks like an ideal hand for his over pair, then he will be folding most over pairs and playing them will not be profitable. So he cannot simply fold.

But he also should not simply shove all in to Doyles min raise either as he is almost never getting called by a weaker hand and only almost always getting called by a monster. The only hand that might call where he is even money is a monster draw like flush/straight draw flop suited connectors that is up and down.

So again I probably re min raise Doyles flop raise, and if he shoves then I fold. If he simply calls and the turn comes a blank, I would feel I had to shove or call if he did hoping he was on the flush/straight draw combo and now only had the River card to come. At the flop the big draw is a slight favorite to the over pair but at the turn it drops to about 30% so I am happier getting it in with KK and being called. Of course Dolly turns over the 6/6 and I know I am beat minus a saving K on the river.



So once again why I say I hate playing those big pairs as I see almost no way to not lose a big pot when I do lose and I see almost no way (outside suited connectors chasing and missing) to win anything but a small pot when I do win.

How do any of you tagged below play this differently than the Ameteur did with KK to avoid losing a big pot or your entire stack?

The first hand is just a bad beat. Couple ways Mouth can escape, especially with 400 BB stacks. But you would have to know more about the table dynamic to know how capable the opponent is of having complete air there. Which is exactly what he has to have, because every real hand got there. He could have every set, including kings on the turn against Matusow(super tight). And obv QJ. And if he just had one pair like AK or QQ he's happy to check back and play for what's already there.

IMO, it really sucks, but Matusow has to either bet-fold the flop or check-call the flop and check-fold the turn. Maybe call the turn and fold river. But that's based on stacks, table dynamic, and specific opponent. But against players at that level, you're generally just going to be wrong too often to want to put yourself in that position. At least at smaller stakes you can be pretty confident when you get 3-barreled that you're not being bluffed. And you can even pick up more info along the way.


The second hand is just the whale getting harpooned by old Ahab Brunson, as per usual. Calicanis should have lost 40k on that hand. He just butchered it.

Pre-flop is fine. Even though everyone at the table knew he had TT or better when he 3-bet. The 3-bet from the BB by the fish screams monster. If he has something like 88 or KJ suited, he's just calling and trying to win a pot against Doyle Brunson. He's not mixing up his range when he raises there. Everyone knows he's protecting a monster.

Then the flop, where he donated 60k to the Todd Brunson Wyoming Winter Lodge.

There's 12k in the middle. Hand plays itself from here:
Flop
-Doyle checks
-Jason checks
12k in pot

Turn
-Doyle bets 10k
-Jason calls 10k
32k in pot

River
-Doyle bets 30k
-Jason calls 30k
92k pot. Doyle takes 40-45 off Jason.

Every single action Calicanis made in this hand turned his hand face up. And what's funny is Doyle actually turned his hand face up on the flop and Calicanis didn't even see it. Min-raise means Doyle has it EVERY time. But Calicanis doesn't know this.

And about "if it's good enough to call it's good enough to shove". The reason that is, is because you are not getting any stronger with KK. And once you put one more dollar in the middle on a future street, your whole stack is committed.

Once Doyle has raised to 30k and you've matched it, there's 72k in the pot, and you have less than that behind. So either you're ahead on the flop and you're all in, or you're behind and you fold. You're not drawing to anything with KK.

And beyond all this strategy, you're the fish playing with Doyle Brunson. Probably just minimize the number of streets and decisions in every possible hand.


@SaiWa @Michaelangelo @Makani @Foppa21 @vanillaisis @rearnakedchoke @Fugazi

Tagged you guys because I saw you in the discussion.

 

[MikeMcMann]

Show it a million times.....don't show the 5 million ties AA wins a big one, though.

Hmm? not sure what you are saying here?

As I like to point out, it is very rare for AA or big pairs to win big pots unless up against other big pairs pre flop and they get it all in. Most times AA is going to win a small pot or lose a big one.

I would say one of the best ways for AA to win a big pot is if called by suited connectors pre flop who know he has a big pair and they are hoping to hit and suck out. The flop a up and down straight draw with the flush draw and are a 52/48 percent favorite (or thereabouts) on the flop and they chase to the river calling an ALL in on the way and don't hit. that is one of the only hands I can think of that really pays off AA even though they know he has AA.

 

[Michaelangelo]

lol speaking of Aces

 

[MikeMcMann]

The first hand is just a bad beat. Couple ways Mouth can escape, especially with 400 BB stacks. But you would have to know more about the table dynamic to know how capable the opponent is of having complete air there. Which is exactly what he has to have, because every real hand got there. He could have every set, including kings on the turn against Matusow(super tight). And obv QJ. And if he just had one pair like AK or QQ he's happy to check back and play for what's already there.

IMO, it really sucks, but Matusow has to either bet-fold the flop or check-call the flop and check-fold the turn. Maybe call the turn and fold river. But that's based on stacks, table dynamic, and specific opponent. But against players at that level, you're generally just going to be wrong too often to want to put yourself in that position. At least at smaller stakes you can be pretty confident when you get 3-barreled that you're not being bluffed. And you can even pick up more info along the way.


The second hand is just the whale getting harpooned by old Ahab Brunson, as per usual. Calicanis should have lost 40k on that hand. He just butchered it.

Pre-flop is fine. Even though everyone at the table knew he had TT or better when he 3-bet. The 3-bet from the BB by the fish screams monster. If he has something like 88 or KJ suited, he's just calling and trying to win a pot against Doyle Brunson. He's not mixing up his range when he raises there. Everyone knows he's protecting a monster.

Then the flop, where he donated 60k to the Todd Brunson Wyoming Winter Lodge.

There's 12k in the middle. Hand plays itself from here:
Flop
-Doyle checks
-Jason checks
12k in pot

Turn
-Doyle bets 10k
-Jason calls 10k
32k in pot

River
-Doyle bets 30k
-Jason calls 30k
92k pot. Doyle takes 40-45 off Jason.

Every single action Calicanis made in this hand turned his hand face up. And what's funny is Doyle actually turned his hand face up on the flop and Calicanis didn't even see it. Min-raise means Doyle has it EVERY time. But Calicanis doesn't know this.

And about "if it's good enough to call it's good enough to shove". The reason that is, is because you are not getting any stronger with KK. And once you put one more dollar in the middle on a future street, your whole stack is committed.

Once Doyle has raised to 30k and you've matched it, there's 72k in the pot, and you have less than that behind. So either you're ahead on the flop and you're all in, or you're behind and you fold. You're not drawing to anything with KK.

And beyond all this strategy, you're the fish playing with Doyle Brunson. Probably just minimize the number of streets and decisions in every possible hand.


@SaiWa @Michaelangelo @Makani @Foppa21 @vanillaisis @rearnakedchoke @Fugazi

Tagged you guys because I saw you in the discussion.

I think we agree with the pre flop action of hand 2 but diverge from there.

If I bet, 3 bet, pre flop with AA and get that call i know I have advertised 'Big Hand' (AA, KK, QQ, [JJ &AK suited maybe]) and when Dolly calls I put him on a pretty wide range. He could have any pocket pair or any suited connectors particularly 6/7 suited and upwards. He knows I have a big pair and he is looking at Implied pot odds in a suck out, or folding if he does not hit.

After the flop there is no way I am not betting my AA on such a dangerous board. Doyle could have some monsters like 3/3, 6/6, 7/7, or 4/5 suited and be ahead. But 5/6, 7/8, 8/9 or any two diamonds are possible. Maybe even a pair with the back door straight and flush draw with 5/6H.

If you just check the flop and turn and allow those losing hands like 5/6H to catch up and they do you will be criticized for not putting pressure on them and you will never know where you are. There is simply no way if i have that 5/6H I don't smell that you are scared to bet your AA and start hammering the pot on the turn, knowing if you cal I can always catch and beat you, and then shove the river knowing you should fold and not call off all your chips with one pair, even AA.

I think once you have announced 'hey i have AA' or a similar big hand, you must bet like the flop, turn river don't scare you and you are confident in your hand. Make them fear you may in fact call any bluff and then if they shove you can have more confidence they must have the goods as they are not afraid of you calling.

If they do bluff you even though you are sending that strong signal and they take that risk anyways, good on them. They deserve the pot.

 

[SaiWa]

Good point and I agree. I was not paying attention to remaining stack size and you are 100% right.

I see almost no way to get away from KK there when you look at stack sizes post flop raise. Sometimes you just have to pay.

The first hand is just a bad beat. Couple ways Mouth can escape, especially with 400 BB stacks. But you would have to know more about the table dynamic to know how capable the opponent is of having complete air there. Which is exactly what he has to have, because every real hand got there. He could have every set, including kings on the turn against Matusow(super tight). And obv QJ. And if he just had one pair like AK or QQ he's happy to check back and play for what's already there.

IMO, it really sucks, but Matusow has to either bet-fold the flop or check-call the flop and check-fold the turn. Maybe call the turn and fold river. But that's based on stacks, table dynamic, and specific opponent. But against players at that level, you're generally just going to be wrong too often to want to put yourself in that position. At least at smaller stakes you can be pretty confident when you get 3-barreled that you're not being bluffed. And you can even pick up more info along the way.


The second hand is just the whale getting harpooned by old Ahab Brunson, as per usual. Calicanis should have lost 40k on that hand. He just butchered it.

Pre-flop is fine. Even though everyone at the table knew he had TT or better when he 3-bet. The 3-bet from the BB by the fish screams monster. If he has something like 88 or KJ suited, he's just calling and trying to win a pot against Doyle Brunson. He's not mixing up his range when he raises there. Everyone knows he's protecting a monster.

Then the flop, where he donated 60k to the Todd Brunson Wyoming Winter Lodge.

There's 12k in the middle. Hand plays itself from here:
Flop
-Doyle checks
-Jason checks
12k in pot

Turn
-Doyle bets 10k
-Jason calls 10k
32k in pot

River
-Doyle bets 30k
-Jason calls 30k
92k pot. Doyle takes 40-45 off Jason.

Every single action Calicanis made in this hand turned his hand face up. And what's funny is Doyle actually turned his hand face up on the flop and Calicanis didn't even see it. Min-raise means Doyle has it EVERY time. But Calicanis doesn't know this.

And about "if it's good enough to call it's good enough to shove". The reason that is, is because you are not getting any stronger with KK. And once you put one more dollar in the middle on a future street, your whole stack is committed.

Once Doyle has raised to 30k and you've matched it, there's 72k in the pot, and you have less than that behind. So either you're ahead on the flop and you're all in, or you're behind and you fold. You're not drawing to anything with KK.

And beyond all this strategy, you're the fish playing with Doyle Brunson. Probably just minimize the number of streets and decisions in every possible hand.


@SaiWa @Michaelangelo @Makani @Foppa21 @vanillaisis @rearnakedchoke @Fugazi

Tagged you guys because I saw you in the discussion.

No you have it wrong for the Jason/Doyle game.

I agree that the pre-flop action is correct.

Flop hits with 12K in the pot.
Jason (KK - big blind acts first) - bets $15K
Doyle - re-raises to $30K total
Jason calls the extra 15K.

The tell here is the size of Jason's bet (overbets the pot). It was too much. I understand the bet though because Jason is protecting his Kings from a flush draw. It's the old adage "you must pay to see the next card". Anyone who calls or re-raises has a monster (or an insane bluffer or is reading you on a bluff). Unfortunately for Jason he ran into a set. Doyle min re-raises and Jason knows he is in trouble. This is the pivotal moment where he could have let go of the hand but he's calling 15K for a 57K pot. If you are willing to let go of pocket Kings with those odds you can either see through cards and you may as well never play poker again. That's a tough lay down there and I can't see myself ever doing that unless I am in a tourney.

Turn hits with a $72K pot.
Jason goes all in with $66K.
Doyle calls and it's game over...

I can't blame Jason for his all-in move really. It's a typical move by a lot of players who refuse to give up on top pocket pairs. He's hoping his opponent is on the draw and goes all-in to prevent a miracle card. We've all been there and seen it. You have top pair or even a set with a dangerous board and bet out to prevent any people from drawing cheaply.

The only other outcome is that instead of going all-in Jason checks and let's Doyle bet. It really doesn't matter what Doyle does because I don't see Jason (or myself and many others) fold unless Doyle goes all in. If Doyle bets 1/3 of the pot ($20K) any of us will call then bet or call on the river with the remaining $46K. if he bets half of the pot ($30K) then maaaybe someone is daring enough to fold... I can see myself folding at this point depending on who the player is. But what you have left is basically a little less than pot size so I don't see anyone really folding here (at least I am not).

This is a hand tailored made to lose lots of money. The critical moment is calling the extra 15K on the flop. Calling that more less seals the deal given the remaining stack that Jason has. As I stated in another post if Jason had 100K+ instead of just 66K then I can see him folding on the turn or river cause he won't go all-in and checks to Doyle.

 

[LEWIS540]

Hmm? not sure what you are saying here?

As I like to point out, it is very rare for AA or big pairs to win big pots unless up against other big pairs pre flop and they get it all in. Most times AA is going to win a small pot or lose a big one.

I would say one of the best ways for AA to win a big pot is if called by suited connectors pre flop who know he has a big pair and they are hoping to hit and suck out. The flop a up and down straight draw with the flush draw and are a 52/48 percent favorite (or thereabouts) on the flop and they chase to the river calling an ALL in on the way and don't hit. that is one of the only hands I can think of that really pays off AA even though they know he has AA.

lol

 

[MikeMcMann]

lol speaking of Aces

horrible fold by Hellmuth. Horrendous play by him and he is one I usual have a lot of great things to say about.

if you 3 bet pre flop that large and then bet again on the flop you do not check the turn on such a dry board unless you are trying to induce a bluff. You are basically saying 'I have AK and am slowing down'.

if you then get bet into, even shoved against, you must call because you set that table and enticed that action. had Phil bet out the turn and the guy shoved then considering a fold is fair for Phil. You rep'd strength at every stage and the guy shoves which could certainly mean he flopped a set.

But DO NOT feign weakness with a big hand and then fold when they shove.

 

[MikeMcMann]

lol

what is so funny?

I think we are having pretty respectful poker talk here recognizing people can all play things a little different but if you want to turn this into troll exchanges instead of real play discussions and analysis i can do that too.

Do you think the idea of playing suited connectors versus AA is funny or is it something else? Do you know suited connectors like 5/6, 6/7 and 7/8 have the best odds of any hands to crack AA?

 

[LEWIS540]

what is so funny?

I think we are having pretty respectful poker talk here recognizing people can all play things a little different but if you want to turn this into troll exchanges instead of real play discussions and analysis i can do that too.

Do you think the idea of playing suited connectors versus AA is funny or is it something else? Do you know suited connectors like 5/6, 6/7 and 7/8 have the best odds of any hands to crack AA?

lol

The idea that AA only ever wins a small pot.......lol.

lol

*barely better odds than an under pair.

 

[MikeMcMann]

lol

The idea that AA only ever wins a small pot.......lol.

lol

*barely better odds than an under pair.

Well give your own example of how you win a big pot with AA?

Create a hand from scratch and give me my two cards and walk me through how you extract a big hand from me with AA.

I am genuinely curious and not meaning it any other way. I do want to see it.

 

[LEWIS540]

Well give your own example of how you win a big pot with AA?

Create a hand from scratch and give me my two cards and walk me through how you extract a big hand from me with AA.

I am genuinely curious and not meaning it any other way. I do want to see it.

AA V 99 on a 822 board. 99 insta fold.
AA V AQ on a Q77 board. AQ insta fold.
AA V AK 4 bet all in pre. AK insta fold.
AA 4 bet pre. Every marginal hand insta fold.

Yes, easy fold pre with anything less than QQ.