My UFC 166 Bets - Post Yours!

[Goreds1994]

I bet he opens around -200 but gets bet up quickly, I'd definitely play him at that price. Rio is one of those TUF guys that I have no idea why is even in the UFC, he's just not very good.

I hope so. If he opens at -150ish he might be my biggest MMA play ever.
I just worry that this long layoff will affect him.

 

[Dooze]

I think Ferguson opens up at about -300 and still gets bet up to -400 or so.

He's a much better fighter than Rio, the only question mark is him being out for so long. I've been a fan of his since seeing him on TUF, hoping to see his nasty left uppercut leave Rio a crumpled mess on the floor.

 

[Te Huna Matata]

I think Ferguson opens up at about -300 and still gets bet up to -400 or so.

He's a much better fighter than Rio, the only question mark is him being out for so long. I've been a fan of his since seeing him on TUF, hoping to see his nasty left uppercut leave Rio a crumpled mess on the floor.

I agree here. There is no way he opens as low as some are hoping. Rio is being fed to the wolves here.

 

[Goreds1994]

My thoughts early on these fights before most of the lines are released (spoilered for length):

Spoiler

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos - I think this is a 50/50 fight. JDS is the right play at the odds right now, and I think fight goes to a decision +180 is a pretty good bet as well. Most likely outcomes are still JDS KO and Cain decision, but I think JDS could win a decision as well.

Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson- Cormier is unplayable at those odds imo, but he should handle Nelson with ease. He's better everywhere, and outside of one of those bombs landing he has nothing for him.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez- Another fight that the odds are unplayable. Diego could easily be 0-3 in his last 3 fights and imo he should be. I think Gilbert wins a decision, but when the lines come out Diego via points might be playable because judges love him.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan- LOVE the under in this fight. I think Gonzaga beats him as well. Both have shaky chins and 1 shot KO power. Gonzaga has a much better ground game and I think he will commit to it here.

John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague- Dodson should win, but I think Montague might be worth a stab if his odds get even better. He hasn't impressed me a ton at flyweight, but this is Montague's UFC debut and his first real test since he got choked out against Uncle Creepy.

Tim Boetsch vs. CB Dollaway- Boetsch got out wrestled against Munoz, and CB is a better wrestler than Tim, but I think Tim catches him and puts him away. I don't remember the Sarafian fight, but Mayhem had him hurt quite a few times, and he isn't exactly known as a guy that has a ton of power. If he doesn't injure his knee he wins that fight. I'm hoping we get Tim at decent odds for this fight.

Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt- A lot depends on how Lombard's cut down to 170 goes, but I think he KO's Marquardt. He's got dynamite in his hands, and I think he will be able to stuff any takedowns Nate tries and he will hurt him on the feet.

Jessica Eye vs. Sarah Kaufman- No idea here, going to say Kaufman because I have heard of her before.

K.J. Noons vs. George Sotiropoulos- Noons just got outgrappled for 15 minutes by Cerrone, I think G-Sot does the same thing, except he might snatch up a submission. With his chin though a Noons KO could happen.

Adlan Amagov vs. T.J. Waldburger- This seems like a match set up for Amagov to win. TJ has been stopped 5 times via strikes in his career, and Adlan has some power. I think that is what happens, although TJ is a very good grappler and if he gets him down he could sub him.

Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio- Gimme fight for El Cucuy. It will be his first fight in a year and a half, but he has some serious power for a LW and a granite chin. I think he smashes Rio early in the fight.

Andre Fili vs. Jeremy Larsen- Larsen is on my fade list. Fili via TKO.

Kyogi Horiguchi vs. Dustin Pague- I'm surprised Pague is still in the UFC, lost 3 in a row. I guess it's because he got "robbed" against Jabouin. It will be interesting to see how he does in his first fight in the states, as well as his UFC debut. I will go with Kyoji by decision.

 

[PuertoRican]

[YT]Tdc9Gn0TKDw[/YT]

 

[NewcastleTom]

I'm surprised nobady's commented on the statement from Bellator Pres that he will let Askren go to the UFC if he gets a title fight - especially with all the Askren talk in the thread

 

[Goreds1994]

He doesn't deserve a title fight. GSP dominates him if it would happen anyway.

 

[Hughesjm1230]

NCAAF

Spoiler

Got real lucky with USC/Arizona. Ended up $30 because USC played it safe in the 4th quarter.

 

[waiguoren]

I know this is just all hypotheticals because this fight may never happen anyways but I don't think Ben would dare go to the ground with Palhares. For one thing, his ego as a great wrestler is possibly outsized by his ego as a winner. He strikes me more as a guy who does what it takes to win, it just so happens his normal path is wrestling. Secondly Ben has trained with high level bjj guys and he has been tooled. He knows he's not an elite level submission wrestler. When he entered Mundials at purple belt, I don't think he won a match.

This is pretty misleading. What high level BJJ guys tool Askren other than MG, who tools everyone?

At the no gi Mundials he had bad luck. He drew Sinistro in the first round. Sinistro went on to place third in a highly competitive bracket. The match was extremely close and some of the ref's calls were debatable. Sinistro is now a black belt competing at the highest level of sport BJJ. Also, that was three years ago and Askren continues to improve.

 

[Abrogation]

Football:

Spoiler

Singles:

• Norway vs. Slovenia Over 2 [-136]: $6.80 to win $5.00.
• Norway vs. Slovenia Over 2

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Why did Jordan get bet up so high after opening at close to even?
I thought the odds shouldve been right where they were.

I'm going to play Gonzaga. Took em at +475 and +400 for ITD and I'll play him at +200 straight as well.

Though, the story of the fight is that Gonzaga gasses and the much more athletic/faster Jordan could probably capitalize on that. And the fact that Gonzaga has 6 KO losses it's easy to fade the big fella.

He's a better dog bet than JDS imo.

 

[Abrogation]

Why did Jordan get bet up so high after opening at close to even?
I thought the odds shouldve been right where they were.

I'm going to play Gonzaga. Took em at +475 and +400 for ITD and I'll play him at +200 straight as well.

Though, the story of the fight is that Gonzaga gasses and the much more athletic/faster Jordan could probably capitalize on that. And the fact that Gonzaga has 6 KO losses it's easy to fade the big fella.

He's a better dog bet than JDS imo.

I'm with you on this. Do you think I should bet him now or wait for the line to improve?

Edit: Took him at +200 and will add more if the line rises.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm with you on this. Do you think I should bet him now or wait for the line to improve?

Edit: Took him at +200 and will add more if the line rises.

Yeah I'd bite at +200. I don't know if anyone's jumping for joy at -240 for Jordan. And the fact that Gonzaga has much more name recognition his line will probably drop closer by fight day.

But then again, from sitting at -135 to as high as -300 is a pretty huge jump. Some folks are really confident on Jordan.

If you ask me, I usually don't lay juice that huge on a guy who may not have the grappling advantage.

I'll wait til fight day to see if I want to hedge the play or not.

 

[Oblivian]

My degen play. The one on last thread hit! Still undecided how or if I want to play Ferreira/Feist.

Freire + Cejudo + Benoit + Holm + JDS/Cain starts 2: $5 to win $4.68

 

[platfox]

This is pretty misleading. What high level BJJ guys tool Askren other than MG, who tools everyone?

At the no gi Mundials he had bad luck. He drew Sinistro in the first round. Sinistro went on to place third in a highly competitive bracket. The match was extremely close and some of the ref's calls were debatable. Sinistro is now a black belt competing at the highest level of sport BJJ. Also, that was three years ago and Askren continues to improve.

Aside from Marcelo, off the top of my head, the only other high level guy I can think of is Pablo Popovitch. Pablo subbed him really quickly at ADCC (I think it was less than a minute, could be wrong). Yeah it's true Marcelo tools everyone, so I won't hold that too much against Ben. But that's what I was talking about, high level guys have humbled him in the past. So it's probably made Ben realize he's vulnerable to submission specialists and Palhares is as dangerous with his leg locks as Marcelo with his guillotine or any other high level guy (proven last ADCC when Palhares subbed his way to the finals and put up a close fight against against Galvao in the finals).

As far as drawing Sinistro, Sinistro was a purple belt at the time just like Ben was. If they had another match today, I would expect the same result or Sinistro to be beat Ben soundly since Ben has to split his training in different arts while Sinistro does BJJ all day everyday. Now put today's Sinistro vs today's Palhares in an ADCC rules match, I think Palhares would be a pretty big favorite.

Is it possible that Ben is closing the gap in submission wrestling against high level bjj guys? I guess so, but it's also possible that he's been focusing more on his striking and mma. I don't know a ton of his training schedule so I'll admit I'm just making assumptions. But regardless of how Ben would do against Sinistro, Marcelo, or Pablo today, I still don't think he would initiate a grappling match with Palhares if they ever fought.

 

[Te Huna Matata]

My degen play. The one on last thread hit! Still undecided how or if I want to play Ferreira/Feist.

Freire + Cejudo + Benoit + Holm + JDS/Cain starts 2: $5 to win $4.68

A 5 way parlay that isn't even paying 1:1...degen at its finest.

 

[Dooze]

Rewatching the Kim/Silva fight and it's got me wondering how it would have played out had Kim not grabbed the cage to prevent getting taken down like 25 seconds before the KO.

Silva has his back and goes to pull him down and away from the cage, but Kim holds onto it and allows himself to not be pulled down/away, dropping to 1 knee afterwards against the cage and using that to get back up, at which point Silva lets him go.

It kind of reminds me a bit of the Aldo/Mendes fight, where Aldo grabs the cage when he was about to be taken down, doesn't get punished for it and gets a KO as a result a few seconds later. Impressive no doubt, but just makes me wonder how different the fight(s) would have gone had the cage not been grabbed and the takedown then happened.

 

[Dirtey]

Rewatching the Kim/Silva fight and it's got me wondering how it would have played out had Kim not grabbed the cage to prevent getting taken down like 25 seconds before the KO.

Silva has his back and goes to pull him down and away from the cage, but Kim holds onto it and allows himself to not be pulled down/away, dropping to 1 knee afterwards against the cage and using that to get back up, at which point Silva lets him go.

It kind of reminds me a bit of the Aldo/Mendes fight, where Aldo grabs the cage when he was about to be taken down, doesn't get punished for it and gets a KO as a result a few seconds later. Impressive no doubt, but just makes me wonder how different the fight(s) would have gone had the cage not been grabbed and the takedown then happened.

If I am not misstaken Erick Silva grabbed the fence not once but twice before DHK did it.

 

[EzFlyer]

After watching Cejudo's fights I think he is the real deal. Very good footwork, obviously has great takedowns and top control, brutal gnp, and appears to be near impossible to take down. I'm really impressed. I think he could pose a threat to mighty mouse in the future if he continues to develop which I believe he will since he's only 26.

Hollis is a beanpole of a fighter, really tall and skinny, seems to have decent kickboxing and does have an aggressive guard which is good since he's going to get taken down. I dunno, if my bankroll was bigger right now I might take a small stab at Hollis just because of the fact that he does like to throw up subs and he will almost assuredly end up on his back, but I think he's going to get ragdolled and pounded out. I would definitely play the under in this fight if that becomes available at a decent price, Cejudo is a finisher.

thx man total pass

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Yeah I would actually be pretty interested to watch that fight to see how he'd go about it like you said. You're playing with fire when you go to the ground with Paul but I agree it's just in Askren's nature to go for it. He doesn't seem like the type of dude to believe he can be handled on the ground.

Lol, I'm actually kind of happy now that Palhares is gone from the ufc if we get a chance to see him against Askren, really like that matchup.

I know this is just all hypotheticals because this fight may never happen anyways but I don't think Ben would dare go to the ground with Palhares. For one thing, his ego as a great wrestler is possibly outsized by his ego as a winner. He strikes me more as a guy who does what it takes to win, it just so happens his normal path is wrestling. Secondly Ben has trained with high level bjj guys and he has been tooled. He knows he's not an elite level submission wrestler. When he entered Mundials at purple belt, I don't think he won a match.

i do, man, ben is that cocky

 

[EzFlyer]

I hope we get Tony Ferguson at -250 or better. Despite being out for a long time I've been on his hype train since his first TUF fight. I think he smashes Rio quickly.

I bet he opens around -200 but gets bet up quickly, I'd definitely play him at that price. Rio is one of those TUF guys that I have no idea why is even in the UFC, he's just not very good.

I hope so. If he opens at -150ish he might be my biggest MMA play ever.
I just worry that this long layoff will affect him.

I think Ferguson opens up at about -300 and still gets bet up to -400 or so.

He's a much better fighter than Rio, the only question mark is him being out for so long. I've been a fan of his since seeing him on TUF, hoping to see his nasty left uppercut leave Rio a crumpled mess on the floor.

I agree here. There is no way he opens as low as some are hoping. Rio is being fed to the wolves here.

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ok, maybe i'm wishful here, but i don't think he'll open that steep and also don't think he'd get bet up that high. i agree w/you guys on the pick. i'd be on ferg. i don't think it'd end as quickly as has been mentioned, though. but i think ferg -200 is VERY possible. rio's been more active, he does pose some problems on paper w/his wrestling, etc. (i personally think ferg can stop rio's td's, tho)