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A bit off topic (as far as 166 card) but anyone giving any chance to Taimanglo over Silverback tomorrow? Odds are really nice, I think its worth a stab at least
My UFC 166 Bets - Post Yours!
- Thread starter Oblivian
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I don't think Dolloway has much for Boetsch. Tim has better wrestling and a much better chin. I think he is a legit top 10 middleweight. His only real loss at MW is a beast version of Munoz. He won the first Round against Costa in what I consider to be one of the most unlucky fights I've ever seen. Broken hand, eye poke, head butt cut. He may have still lost without these but I think he was on his way to a W.
I do hope you're right about the odds because I would go pretty big on Boetsch at even odds.
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CB is a substantially better wrestler. He took 5th @ the NCAAs in '06. I don't believe Tim ever even qualified for the tournament. I also think CB will surprise some people in the stand up. I do agree about Boetsch being unlucky against Costa. I bet Boetsch in that fight. I also bet Boetsch against Lombard. But this fight will look like Boetsch vs. Munoz. CB is a much better wrestler than people think.
The Walmart sorry Reds linked in response had me in stiches, that was quality.
Goreds1994
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The guy had a few more of them too before he was banned. Let me find them and link them.
Goreds1994
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http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f5/i-jail-last-night-long-story-588374/
http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f5/i-got-sentenced-jail-again-588408/
http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f78/got-into-fight-mall-today-588951/
http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f78/got-into-fight-mexican-guy-today-true-story-588393/
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Those are exactly my picks too. You forgot Gonzaga against Shawn Jordan though. I think Gonzaga will win that
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will be going on vacation for a week, wont get time to make plays for next UFC event or this sunday or next sunday.
UFC bets so far:
- Dodson + cormier: 2u to win 1.2u
- JDS: 1.5u to win 2.9u
NHL plays thursday
NFL thursday break down
UFC bets so far:
- Dodson + cormier: 2u to win 1.2u
- JDS: 1.5u to win 2.9u
NHL plays thursday
COL (3-0) @ BOS (2-0)
- COL has only given up 1 goal in all 3 of their games and looked decent in their last game vs my leafs
- BOS has also only given up 1 goal in both of their 2 games
- Jiggy is confirmed to start for COL, and not sure why they would sit varlamov
- both teams look fairly similar in stats so far with 100% PK
- interesting stat is last year COL was 4-16-4 on the road vs BOS 16-5-3
- but again COL looks like a different team
- with varlamov playing, i'd bet COL as the underdog, but with jiggy in net, its hard to gauge how good he'll start.
pick is BOS, but passing at current odds
CBJ @ BUF
- BUF has had some scoring issues, scoring only 4 goals in 4 games
- BUF is 0-3-1, but miller has been sitting last 2 games, and is confirmed to start vs CBJ
- pick is CBJ, might put them in a RR, or just take the under
CAR @ WAS
- WAS has given up 12 goals in their 3 games and has been outscored 10-3 5v5
- CAR hasn't looked that much better, and khudobin is confirmed to start
- ovekchin is a beast with 4 goals and 6 points. dude has 24 shots in 3 games (look for player prop)
- pick is WAS, passing on a bet, thinking of the over
PHX @ DET
- Howard confirmed for DET
- pHX given up 10 goals in their last 2 games, wont matter who starts for PHX
- DET is the better team
- pick is DET, but kinda pricey to bet
FLO @ TAM
- Thomas was injured last game, markstrom coming in
- FLO also plays b2b tmrw night
- tampa has had 2 close games, and had to come back in 2 of their games i think
- FLO was 7-16-1 last year on the road; TAM was 12-10-2 at home
- pick is TAM; pass at odds
TOR @ NAS
-the one team i've watched all their games, and they have looked pretty bad in all of them. not a 3-1 team
- TOR looked slow and had problems getting it out of their own end with lots of give aways
- TOR has a lot of guys out on injury or suspension
- Bernier shows likely to get the start
- Lupul is questionable and is game time decision whether he will play
- if bernier (7-1 vs NAS) and lupul are out and not playing, I will bet NAS. if both play i might bet TOR. otherwise just a pass
WIN @ MIN
- backstrom got injured, harding is going to start
- WIN has looked good averaging 4 goals per game, but allowing 3.3 GAA and 36 Shots against
- MIN is 0-1-2, but they have all been close games
- WIN plays b2b tmrw night
- pick is WIN, bet depending on if pavelec gets the start
MON @ EDM
- EDM has given up 15 goals in 3 games and will be hard to win games that way
- Budaj is starting for MON who was 8-1-1 with 2.28GAA, .908SV%
- MON playing b2b and lost to CAL last night
- Dubnyk is getting the start with a 6.53 GAA and .831SV%
- pick is EDM, playing the over
SJ @ VAN
- 2 of the top teams in the west
- both teams known for their home records
- SJ has 17 goals in their last 3 games, which is utterly insane while only giving up 4
- VAN has looked ok, with their wins coming over NJ and CAL and EDM
- important to note they've already played this season in SJ and SJ won 4-1
- pick and bet SJ
NYR @ ANH
- first off Rick nash might be out and not playing
- second i mentioned before but NYR have the worst started schedule in all sports lol
- NYR starts with a 10 game road trip, and will be away from home for almost a month
- Starting to take a toll on them, losing 9-2 their last game vs SJ, with king henry getting pulled after 5 goals
- ANH was 16-7-1 at home last year
- hiller is getting the start
- pick and bet is ANH
Plays:
- ANH: 1.5u to win 1u
- SJ: .5u to win .4u
- WIN: .8u to win 1u
- RR of CAR/WAS o5.5 + MON/EDM o5.5 + SJ: .5u x3
- 6 team OT RR: .1u x 15 (any 2 hit break even)
- COL has only given up 1 goal in all 3 of their games and looked decent in their last game vs my leafs
- BOS has also only given up 1 goal in both of their 2 games
- Jiggy is confirmed to start for COL, and not sure why they would sit varlamov
- both teams look fairly similar in stats so far with 100% PK
- interesting stat is last year COL was 4-16-4 on the road vs BOS 16-5-3
- but again COL looks like a different team
- with varlamov playing, i'd bet COL as the underdog, but with jiggy in net, its hard to gauge how good he'll start.
pick is BOS, but passing at current odds
CBJ @ BUF
- BUF has had some scoring issues, scoring only 4 goals in 4 games
- BUF is 0-3-1, but miller has been sitting last 2 games, and is confirmed to start vs CBJ
- pick is CBJ, might put them in a RR, or just take the under
CAR @ WAS
- WAS has given up 12 goals in their 3 games and has been outscored 10-3 5v5
- CAR hasn't looked that much better, and khudobin is confirmed to start
- ovekchin is a beast with 4 goals and 6 points. dude has 24 shots in 3 games (look for player prop)
- pick is WAS, passing on a bet, thinking of the over
PHX @ DET
- Howard confirmed for DET
- pHX given up 10 goals in their last 2 games, wont matter who starts for PHX
- DET is the better team
- pick is DET, but kinda pricey to bet
FLO @ TAM
- Thomas was injured last game, markstrom coming in
- FLO also plays b2b tmrw night
- tampa has had 2 close games, and had to come back in 2 of their games i think
- FLO was 7-16-1 last year on the road; TAM was 12-10-2 at home
- pick is TAM; pass at odds
TOR @ NAS
-the one team i've watched all their games, and they have looked pretty bad in all of them. not a 3-1 team
- TOR looked slow and had problems getting it out of their own end with lots of give aways
- TOR has a lot of guys out on injury or suspension
- Bernier shows likely to get the start
- Lupul is questionable and is game time decision whether he will play
- if bernier (7-1 vs NAS) and lupul are out and not playing, I will bet NAS. if both play i might bet TOR. otherwise just a pass
WIN @ MIN
- backstrom got injured, harding is going to start
- WIN has looked good averaging 4 goals per game, but allowing 3.3 GAA and 36 Shots against
- MIN is 0-1-2, but they have all been close games
- WIN plays b2b tmrw night
- pick is WIN, bet depending on if pavelec gets the start
MON @ EDM
- EDM has given up 15 goals in 3 games and will be hard to win games that way
- Budaj is starting for MON who was 8-1-1 with 2.28GAA, .908SV%
- MON playing b2b and lost to CAL last night
- Dubnyk is getting the start with a 6.53 GAA and .831SV%
- pick is EDM, playing the over
SJ @ VAN
- 2 of the top teams in the west
- both teams known for their home records
- SJ has 17 goals in their last 3 games, which is utterly insane while only giving up 4
- VAN has looked ok, with their wins coming over NJ and CAL and EDM
- important to note they've already played this season in SJ and SJ won 4-1
- pick and bet SJ
NYR @ ANH
- first off Rick nash might be out and not playing
- second i mentioned before but NYR have the worst started schedule in all sports lol
- NYR starts with a 10 game road trip, and will be away from home for almost a month
- Starting to take a toll on them, losing 9-2 their last game vs SJ, with king henry getting pulled after 5 goals
- ANH was 16-7-1 at home last year
- hiller is getting the start
- pick and bet is ANH
Plays:
- ANH: 1.5u to win 1u
- SJ: .5u to win .4u
- WIN: .8u to win 1u
- RR of CAR/WAS o5.5 + MON/EDM o5.5 + SJ: .5u x3
- 6 team OT RR: .1u x 15 (any 2 hit break even)
NFL thursday break down
NYG (0-5, 0-5ATS) @ CHI (3-2, 1-3-1ATS)
CHI offense vs NYG defense
- CHI is actually #4 overall in points score at 29 per game; NYG are last with points allowed at 36.4
- NYG are also last in 3rd and 4th Q points allowed
- CHI is #22 in rush attempts and #18 in pass attempts showing that they mix up running and passing; #16 is rushing yards, and #12 in passing yards
- NYG are last in the league for sacks made; and CHI is #5 for giving up fewest sacks
- CHI is also #2 in fewest number of penatlies taken
NYG offense vs CHI defense
- NYG are 30th in points scored but CHI is 26th in points allowed
- NYG are last for # of rushing attempts, meaning that Eli is going to throw a hell of a lot more than he will try and run it
- compound that with the fact that david wilson the RB is out, and will have to play a RB known for fumbles. i don't see NYG attempting many rushes
- NYG is #6 in passing attempts and #10 in passing yards
- CHI is #24 in passing yards allowed
- NYG are last for total turnovers at 4 per game
what it means:
- I don't think the bears are that great, but NYG haven't shown anything yet. 9 points are a lot to give.
- i'm playing CHI o27.5 points. NYG have given up more than 27.5 points in all 5 of their games, and CHI is #4 overall for points scored with NYG last in defense.
- put 3u to win 2.5u on manning pass attempts o37.5. with their passing game, and wilson out, i think manning attempts 50+ passes.
CHI offense vs NYG defense
- CHI is actually #4 overall in points score at 29 per game; NYG are last with points allowed at 36.4
- NYG are also last in 3rd and 4th Q points allowed
- CHI is #22 in rush attempts and #18 in pass attempts showing that they mix up running and passing; #16 is rushing yards, and #12 in passing yards
- NYG are last in the league for sacks made; and CHI is #5 for giving up fewest sacks
- CHI is also #2 in fewest number of penatlies taken
NYG offense vs CHI defense
- NYG are 30th in points scored but CHI is 26th in points allowed
- NYG are last for # of rushing attempts, meaning that Eli is going to throw a hell of a lot more than he will try and run it
- compound that with the fact that david wilson the RB is out, and will have to play a RB known for fumbles. i don't see NYG attempting many rushes
- NYG is #6 in passing attempts and #10 in passing yards
- CHI is #24 in passing yards allowed
- NYG are last for total turnovers at 4 per game
what it means:
- I don't think the bears are that great, but NYG haven't shown anything yet. 9 points are a lot to give.
- i'm playing CHI o27.5 points. NYG have given up more than 27.5 points in all 5 of their games, and CHI is #4 overall for points scored with NYG last in defense.
- put 3u to win 2.5u on manning pass attempts o37.5. with their passing game, and wilson out, i think manning attempts 50+ passes.
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Soccer World Cup Qualifiers
Good luck everyone, tail my ass on your own risk. It's win or go home for a lot of the teams so I like many of the stronger teams, not as many dogs as usual but I still like it.
England to beat Montenegro at 1,40 (still playable at the current line of 1,35)
Portugal/Israel Over 2,5 goals at 1,57(Over 3,5 is also good for the brave ones)
Turkey to beat Estonia at 1,44
Greece to beat Slovakia at 1,52
Iceland to beat Cyprus at 1,41
Bulgaria to beat Armenia at 2,37
Colombia to beat Chile at 2,00
Uruguay to draw or beat Ecuador at 1,83 (draw or winning is X2 or +0,5)
Slovenia/Norway over 2 goals at 1,73 is very good(draw if exactly 2 goals)
Slovenia/Norway over 2,5 goals at 2,34
Ukraine/Poland over 2 goals at 1,71 is very good(draw if exactly 2 goals)
Ukraine/Poland over 2,5 goals at 2,27
I actually favor the over 2,5 goals on the ones in bold so I like it a lot at dog odds and at the same time the over 2 goals feels "safe". Both of these matches are MUST WINS, win or you are more or less out of the qualifier(Not as much for Ukraine).
In these kind of matches you rarely get a draw and one or two teams will attack so much there will score or concede goals because of lack of defense. There is always the chance the team that scores first park the bus and manage to keep a 1-0 lead but I don't find it likely.
England to beat Montenegro at 1,40 (still playable at the current line of 1,35)
Portugal/Israel Over 2,5 goals at 1,57(Over 3,5 is also good for the brave ones)
Turkey to beat Estonia at 1,44
Greece to beat Slovakia at 1,52
Iceland to beat Cyprus at 1,41
Bulgaria to beat Armenia at 2,37
Colombia to beat Chile at 2,00
Uruguay to draw or beat Ecuador at 1,83 (draw or winning is X2 or +0,5)
Slovenia/Norway over 2 goals at 1,73 is very good(draw if exactly 2 goals)
Slovenia/Norway over 2,5 goals at 2,34
Ukraine/Poland over 2 goals at 1,71 is very good(draw if exactly 2 goals)
Ukraine/Poland over 2,5 goals at 2,27
I actually favor the over 2,5 goals on the ones in bold so I like it a lot at dog odds and at the same time the over 2 goals feels "safe". Both of these matches are MUST WINS, win or you are more or less out of the qualifier(Not as much for Ukraine).
In these kind of matches you rarely get a draw and one or two teams will attack so much there will score or concede goals because of lack of defense. There is always the chance the team that scores first park the bus and manage to keep a 1-0 lead but I don't find it likely.
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Tailed the bolded
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Congrats to all of last nights winners, seemed like the thread overall had a really good night (TY Dong 
) I also ended up with a solid event. Allow me to brag real quick:
Not ITD Raphael Assunscao vs. T.J. Dillashaw - $30 to win $27
Raphael Assuncao via sub > T.J. Dillashaw - $10 to win $90
Joey Beltran > Fabio Maldonado - $20 to win $33.20
Dong Hyun Kim> Erick Silva - $30 to win $67.50
FOTN Raphael Assuncao vs. T.J. Dillashaw - $10 to win $50
Parlay: A. Patrick, DEC - Beltran/Maldonado, O 2.5 Shields/Maia - $20 to win $40.40
Pierce did loose me $45 in future parlays, but all in all I stil ended up $109.90 with an ROI of 66%, just what I needed after a horrible Bellator 102.
) I also ended up with a solid event. Allow me to brag real quick:Not ITD Raphael Assunscao vs. T.J. Dillashaw - $30 to win $27
Raphael Assuncao via sub > T.J. Dillashaw - $10 to win $90
Joey Beltran > Fabio Maldonado - $20 to win $33.20
Dong Hyun Kim> Erick Silva - $30 to win $67.50
FOTN Raphael Assuncao vs. T.J. Dillashaw - $10 to win $50
Parlay: A. Patrick, DEC - Beltran/Maldonado, O 2.5 Shields/Maia - $20 to win $40.40
Pierce did loose me $45 in future parlays, but all in all I stil ended up $109.90 with an ROI of 66%, just what I needed after a horrible Bellator 102.
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Do the lines on Bellator seem off to anyone else? Other than Patricio, I don't see anyone being as large a favorites as they are, but I could be wrong. Went small on all the dogs other than the guy Friere's fighting.
Fri 10/11 3001 JJ Ambrose 5.250 o2
Fri 10/11 3001 JJ Ambrose 5.250 o2
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BOL to us! And I typed draw if it was exactly 2 goals I miss typed, I meant push if exactly 2 goals are scored.
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@arrelione
Thanks for the picks, tailed the two O 2.5 plays @ 2.33 and 2.30 - so if just one hits I'm good.
My first time tailing you (on soccer) so sorry for the likely jinx
My first time tailing you (on soccer) so sorry for the likely jinx
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@arrelione
Thanks for the picks, tailed the two O 2.5 plays @ 2.33 and 2.30 - so if just one hits I'm good.
My first time tailing you (on soccer) so sorry for the likely jinx
great now we know who to blame. tailed the bold. and a 3x4 team RR with the favourites
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Need help with NFL:
Edit: Also did good last night! This time I got saved by the odds I didn't pick with my gut/heart/butt or whatever. I just chased + odds, didn't even really believe in the dogs but when the odds are that high you have to go with it.
Anyone taking jaguars +26?
Btw, is this like the biggest mismatch in NFL ever? The market is expecting Denver to do touchdowns like there is no tomorrow. I don't know shit about NFL but was funny to see such a huge handicap.
Btw, is this like the biggest mismatch in NFL ever? The market is expecting Denver to do touchdowns like there is no tomorrow. I don't know shit about NFL but was funny to see such a huge handicap.
Edit: Also did good last night! This time I got saved by the odds I didn't pick with my gut/heart/butt or whatever. I just chased + odds, didn't even really believe in the dogs but when the odds are that high you have to go with it.
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I am in the exact same boat as you. I've called them twice about it. The support lady said they have cancelled the bet for now but my "case" is still open and not determined yet. If I don't have the money in my account when I get home from work tomorrow one poor support guy will get a very unpleasant phone call.
And the first call I made it took me 16 minutes to convince them that Assuncao didn't win by submission.
I've made myself this promise several times that I won't ever play on Unibet but it's hard to resist when they fuck up lines constantly. However I won't bite anymore, the extra money ain't worth the CONSTANT hussle on that site.
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