i really think you're going overboard, trying to justify your bet. and i'm not even sure i beleive that you did 2000 on gonzaga at +140. i don't even think they'd let you, you'd be limited.. i mean i get limited to $50 or $100 most of the time and i've asked repeatedly if anything can be done. opening lines like 5d's yesterday morning are usually $100 limits before line moves.
but i don't wanna get too deeply into that. rothwell doesn't have to land a "lucky" shot. he has to land a good one. he throws hard and always has. he also is a good GnP'er.. and GG has gassed more than a couple times and gotten grounded out.
in fact, let me lay some knowledge on you guys.. gonzaga has had 13 ufc fights.
taking out the jordan and scherner ones, because, let's face it, they don't hold much water right now and weren't that tough... but let's put them aside for now. in his other 11 ufc fights, he's 7-5. in all 7 wins, he won in the first round. the 3 fights that have gone to the 2nd and beyond, he's lost.
he can't go hard for long. ben goes deep into fights quite often and is very tough to put away. and ben looked great physically against schaub, totally changed.
IF you do have 2000 at +140, which i don't believe anyway, i think you're crazy not to hedge your bet.
i haven't played either side yet, but if i have +odds on rothwell after 12/29 card, i think i'm gonna take them.
