I favor Aljo, albeit very narrowly. I think Evloev's striking is more fundamentally sound, but that's largely because he sticks to the absolute basics. Aljo is sloppier and more unorthodox, but his arsenal is also more diverse and I think that can play into his favor at times. Movsar does have more pop in his hands though, but he's hardly a power-puncher by any means. Both dudes are competent at point-fighting from the outside or in the clinch.
When it comes to grappling, I think things get interesting. Neither guy has faced a match-up that truly mirrors this prospective opponent. I don't expect either to go out and utterly dominate the other with their wrestling. Admittedly I do have a few concerns about Aljo's TDD given previous bouts, but to some extent I think there are mitigating factors in play in some of those showings. For instance, when Yan was tossing him around Sterling had a compromised neck. And in general I think Aljamain occasionally concedes TDs in order to create opportunities for scrambles, reversals... and submissions. That last one is a major point that is tipping me in Sterling's favor.
Evloev, by his own admission, uses his wrestling to fill in the gaps left by his lackluster BJJ. While he has shown admirable ability to narrowly survive/escape subs, the amount that he has been nearly caught by is... alarming for a grappler of his pedigree. Lentz and Grundy were nothing special in the UFC, but both latched onto Movsar's neck multiple times and threatened tight front headlock chokes while occasionally hanging with the Russian in the wrestling exchanges as well. Diego Lopes on short notice put Evloev in legitimate submission danger consistently across 15 minutes. Hell, even Allen threatened that signature front choke of his and forced Evloev to give up a position to defend it as I recall. I think this is where Aljo can make his money in the fight. Even if he can't sub Movsar outright (and TBH I don't really expect him to), the mere threat of him rolling for a leg or trying to snatch up the Russian's neck in a scramble changes the whole dynamic from that of a pure wrestling match to something very different. And I think in the latter, Aljo is more comfortable. Even if all he is doing is looking more "active" to the judges or simply forcing Movsar to bail on advantageous positions across 15 minutes, it will all be to Sterling's benefit.
