Elections More Americans Identify as Republican than Democrat for the first time in 30 Years

[fedorthegoat777]

We're not in two wars. This administration got us out of the our last remaining war, which came at great political sacrifice.

Ukraine and Israel.

We are fighting a proxy war with Russia. Putin is threatening with nukes. If he had more power, he would likely directly attack America if he had a small chance for victory.

Ukraine would have fallen by now without the American money and weapons. Israel is in a better spot, but that American lift helps them as well.

 

[Andy Capp]

Yeah, Obama had his mistakes and I think him giving all that money to Iran was a mistake as well. But he was a smooth talker and had an aura of peace around him. Maybe he could have got us to the negotiation table.

From a historical perspective, Republicans were always the war party and Dems the party of peace. I am not sure with Biden. Maybe he still is. Hard to say. Time will tell.

I do think the Russia conflict has escalated beyond what it should have. Also, Biden was given a hand of bad cards, but this will be part of his legacy. He is leaving office with two wars going on. Not a positive on that note.

smh

 

[Madmick]

Yes, and the one before that had a Dem edge, and the one before that Republican. That was the Sep 16-28 2024 results. If you go back a year, to Sep-2023, and take the average of every result for this same poll until that most recent one favoring Dems, you get:

Republicans = 46.21428571
Democrats = 44.57142857

Nearly a two-point advantage for Republicans. These are the data trends the pollster mathematicians cited in my OP are discussing.

 

[AWilder]

Yes, and the one before that had a Dem edge, and the one before that Republican. That was the Sep 16-28 2024 results. If you go back a year, to Sep-2023, and take the average of every result for this same poll until that most recent one favoring Dems, you get:

Republicans = 46.21428571
Democrats = 44.57142857

Nearly a two-point advantage for Republicans. These are the data trends the pollster mathematicians cited in my OP are discussing.

wow all the way to 2023.

 

[fedorthegoat777]

smh

Fair.
What part?
The wars are a negative, no way around it.
Hoover encountered a depression, not fair but he had to deal with it. George W. was given 911. LBJ was given Vietnam. Lincoln was given a civil war and FDR a depression and war. Great Presidents made something of these events. Bad ones did nothing. Or made things worse.

I see the open wars as a net negative on Biden.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Ukraine and Israel.

We're not in either war.

We are fighting a proxy war with Russia. Putin is threatening with nukes. If he had more power, he would likely directly attack America if he had a small chance for victory.

Ukraine would have fallen by now without the American money and weapons. Israel is in a better spot, but that American lift helps them as well.

We provide aid to allies, yeah. That's not being at war. You also have to think about the appropriate baseline. If we abandoned Ukraine, we could be seen as helping Russia conquer them, and would have blood on our hands not only for that but for Russia's subsequent expansions.

 

[Madmick]

wow all the way to 2023.

I went back 1 year from the last poll because it gives you a larger data set to cement the trend. If you don't want to go back that far, then how far back do you want to go?

Post Conventions 2024
Republicans = 47.5
Democrats = 47.0

Post Spring-2024
Republicans = 47.2
Democrats = 45.8

Post March-2024 (once Trump secured Republican nomination)
Republicans = 46.375
Democrats = 45.25

There is no meaningful date range that favors the Democrats in our most immediate history with that poll. So unless you want to cherry pick that single result from that single pollster, perhaps you'll understand why the data scientsts are so surprised.

 

[Gutter Chris]

they didn't do anything to me or for me. so why should my tax dollars and neighbors be sent overseas to protect them?

None of that matters

Our country made a deal with them to get the nukes out of Ukraine in exchange for security.

Now they have no nukes and need security...should we have just told them we lied ?

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

None of that matters

Our country made a deal with them to get the nukes out of Ukraine in exchange for security.

Now they have no nukes and need security...should we have just told them we lied ?

maybe don't invent nukes if you don't want your enemies to have them.

 

[ShadowRun]

maybe don't invent nukes if you don't want your enemies to have them.

Since you don't know much about the history the enemy were trying to invent nukes before USA. The letter to the president helped identified that and sparked project Manhattan.

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

Since you don't know much about the history the enemy were trying to invent nukes before USA. The letter to the president helped identified that and sparked project Manhattan.

except they stopped right around the time the US started. and then the US did it. and the enemies didn't.

 

[ShadowRun]

except they stopped right around the time the US started. and then the US did it. and the enemies didn't.

Except they could not figure it out and lot the war, then what you think USA shared their blueprints with Russia? You make zero sense.

 

[ShadowRun]

I wonder why people are switching

meanwhile Mich governor

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

Except they could not figure it out and lot the war, then what you think USA shared their blueprints with Russia? You make zero sense.

make up your mind. either they were making nukes or they couldn't figure it out.

 

[Black9]

The question are the Republican's who were already registered ACTUALLY voting for Trump?

Alot of moderate Republicans, some in Trump's inner circle, appear to be coming out everyday endorsing Kamala Harris for president.

The top might be filling with new voter registrations, but the bottom might be falling out.

 

[ShadowRun]

make up your mind. either they were making nukes or they couldn't figure it out.

Are you really this stupid ? Germans were at it first couldn't figure it out, Russia made nukes... What a dumbass

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

Are you really this stupid ? Germans were at it first couldn't figure it out, Russia made nukes... Would a dumbass

the soviets were our allies during WW2 you fucking troglodyte.

 

[ShinkanPo]

If democrats dropped the insane cultural stuff from their party I think they’d dominate every election.

Things like the trans movement, ignoring biology, pushing sexual things on kids makes people drop them no matter what good ideas they may have.

They will need to drop more than the transity things.

How about some of the fringy social marxism stuff?

 

[ShinkanPo]

Their hatred of white people is also unpopular.

Hatred of the west

 

[ColemanwastheGOAT]

God dang saying we need to teach kids empathy really gets under my skin. It’s a subverted way of saying we need to teach kids how to think and rewrite what is normal. wtf did I come back to this forum for?

It's the kind of absurd shit that only a person who doesn't have kids would ever say. As if kids, by far the most empathetic of humans, need a lesson in empathy from adults, who have far less empathy.