No, just trust the history of politics and human nature. Or don't! I'm not asking you (or anyone for that matter) to believe it.
Have you ever watched a true crime show where it's not solved and there's not evidence to charge someone...but you still think they likely did it? Be it circumstances, the vibe they gave...whatever.
When I was in college, I had 3 roommates my sophomore year. My one roommate Tommy had a buddy named Jake that would be over at our place all the time, come out with us, etc. So late in the year Tommy and my other roommate Jeff started not getting along great. Can't remember why, doesn't matter but Jake was around and knew it. Anyway, one weekend we had a party and Jeff wasn't there and someone pissed on his bed. Nobody (that I know) saw it happen and of course everyone denied it. There was no evidence at all about who did it. But we all really got the feeling that it was Jake. We couldn't prove it and didn't try. We knew he'd never admit it. We weren't 100% positive of course, but we thought he did.
Was it preposterous for us to think that sans any evidence? We didn't try to hold him accountable for something we could never prove. We didn't even confront him really. We just, thought that of the ~25 people there, it was likely him. By your logic, we were what? Absurd for voicing to each other our thoughts on Jake?