Let's be real

[Luffy]

Poatan smokes Tom. There's a reason Tom isn't doing the fight. He has beaten mostly older or a low level HW era in which Gane is still the #1 contender. He has many round 1 KOs but is inactive, hasn't fought a former champion (maybe 1) and beat up a weak era of HWs while losing the first one to Curtis.

Pereira has beaten 5 world champions with just one of them being older than him. And in a LHW era > that of Santos and Reyes, this latter era which gave a younger JJ more problems than Gane when JJ was 3 years older. JJ himself said, before fighting Gane, that Tiago Santos' kickboxing was way better then Gane's from what he could see on tape.

Tom has quick 3 streak wins vs opponents who were never champions and who are ranked below Gane... Pereira, who's the top of LHW right now with a 245 lbs frame while with a stocky, low fat mass, a naturally fit for HW frame (245 lbs...) would beat Tom. Tom has done nothing that Pereira did at the level Pereira fought...

I don't think it'd be easy. Destroy is going too far. But I don't think it'd be as hard as his first fight vs Adesanya (which he was sacrificing heavily both endurance and mobility to cut so much weight to the point Sean said he had the face of death itself due to how drained he looked). I think it'd be like a Khalil Rountree kind of fight, now that Pereira has proven grappling vs a better grappler than Tom (Ankalaev)...

 

[Reapzz]

Weight classes exist for a reason. Alex is big but not that big. Tom is naturally a huge, fast guy. Alex could ko him, but the odds greatly favor Tom.

 

[Pequeño Corey]

I wouldn’t pick Alex, but I’ve always thought he should have moved up and tried. I’d prefer this to an owl rematch.

 

[wisdom blows]

If Tom wants to end it quick by sub he can. Standing would be fun, but Tom hits too hard and is too big.

 

[prime_lobov]

Do you mean in a kickboxing match? Because in MMA, Tom could just grapplefuck Poatan and sub him. Alex has DDP-level grappling skills, worse than a child’s level of wrestling.

 

[ILove4MinutesHyuna]

everyone saying Poatan would be the easiest fight for Khamzat at LHW and now this man saying Poatan smokes the HW champ, make it make sense

 

[prime_lobov]

everyone saying Poatan would be the easiest fight for Khamzat at LHW and now this man saying Poatan smokes the HW champ, make it make sense

Outside fellow Russian terrorist Big Ank, is there a single fighter in the UFC LHW division that would pose any challenge at all for Khamzat?

 

[GoWokeGoBroke]

First off tom has not that much say. He has SOME goodwill do to the jones fiasco. Tom also likes money. The fight would sell big. If poatan wanted the fight Dana would convince tom Tomorow in the Form of a truckload of money,

The fact the fights not happening is cuz Alex don’t want it . Toms a true heavy. Not a “37 year old bulking alchy”

Glover is no moron. He may not be whispering sweet nothings in Alex’s ears but he certainly whispering YOU DONT WANT THAT SMOKE


That being said if the fight somehow materializes Luffy will pick Alex I’ll always go the opposite of him by betting it all on Tom and luffy will have made me even more rich.

Off to boil my lobster (paid for by always picking opposite of luffy btw)

Cheers

 

[Cletus Fertitta]

Tom is quicker than the middle weight version of Poatan. Whatever lol

 

[p4pfighters]

This is not a kickboxing match , Aspinall will take it to the ground , easy win.

 

[ultra321]

Is this dumb ass still posting.... FFS

 

[linvillegorge]

Aspinall would be the big favorite but if he played around on the feet he could get cracked. He likes to keep those hands really low and rely on his speed. The speed of a MW turned LHW could definitely catch him off guard.

 

[Doughie99]

Poatan smokes Tom. There's a reason Tom isn't doing the fight.

Don't agree at all Poatan smokes Tom. Other way round is far more likely.

Also....UFC are just NOT gonna out poatan and Tom in a cage together because they ont wabt either fighter to lose. It'd be a stupid thing for the UFC to do, given how important Poatan is and Tom is.....in their SEPARATE weight classes.

 

[AndrewGolota48]

Weight classes exist for a reason. Alex is big but not that big. Tom is naturally a huge, fast guy. Alex could ko him, but the odds greatly favor Tom.

Tom got bitched around by a 225 lb opponent when Tom was 256. Poatan is plenty big enough....

 

[Luffy]

Ppl are clueless by saying "Tom subs him the way he wants". That's just not watching any fight at all. Pereira wasn't subbed once in UFC. Tom isn't a grappler. Ankalaev has a big sambo background and couldn't take Pereira down, even though it was the fight he shot the most TDs of his career... And Pereira had Norovirus. Ankalaev is ~225 lbs... Pereira is naturally lean and strong / at his best at 245 lbs, as shown already here and officially.

His weight of 245 lbs to what Tom makes on fight's night as ~ 250 lbs isn't too different. If Ankalaev couldn't take Pereira down, then the standard assumption is that Tom can't either or he'd have a really hard time like Jiri Prochazka (first fight). Calf kick damage transfers way more to HW, as seen when Pereira went up to LHW and his calf kicks were way more devastating than on MW. Fighting at his real size adds both power power through calf kicks, more resilience (chin resistance as shown by him not getting even knocked down once by power punchers from LHW) and cardio, as he wouldn't have been cutting weight. He hits harder than Tom, has stopped TDs from a better wrestler than Tom and is a better striker technically.

Tom isn't faster than Ankalaev actually. He looks fast for HWs, but hand speed calculated, Ank and Rountree are faster than Tom. Tom has many R1 KOs over opponents who weren't even champions of this modern HW era, which has Gane now as the #1 contender. Much like Zhang was a -300 favourite vs Johnny Walker... Yet lost, because his favouritism was based off a small sample — mostly quick KOs... As he has never fought someone that is elite from the top of LHW. This tends to overrated odds a lot actually. When they're set to fight is what the odds would actually reflect...

... Tom was offered by the UFC the Poatan fight. Dana said "Pereira has wanted this fight for a long time. We also do. He's fighting the winner of Gane and Tom". In fact, Tom didn't want to fight Pereira before Gane, saying "I wasn't trying to intimidate Pereira, I was looking at him at the UFC 300 just to study his phycology, someone took the picture but I wasn't trying to pick a fight. If I were him, I'd rematch Ankalaev firstly. It was a tough fight and Ankalaev in my opinion deserves respect for running through everybody on his division... As far as fighting Alex, he's interested yes. Maybe. I don't think about big fights that much, you know. Maybe one day. I just want to have done what I can to evolve. In case I end up losing, that I can have done everything I could and be in peace that I lost doing my best" —> his words.

These aren't words of someone who's confident in besting Poatan, otherwise he'd have called him openly now, as that's the biggest name + biggest money fight without JJ. He did not, he avoided the call out by saying "I think they should rematch firstly, I don't think about fighting him that much, who knows".... With Tom saying his career is closer to the end.

... Dana said the fight had been offered to both for UFC 311 and that Alex wanted it but Tom did not, as he wanted to fight JJ for the undisputed — which contradicts whoever said the UFC would not risk losing one of them — yes they would.

People who live for 3 fights highlights of 20 seconds think Tom wins. Those who look deeper see that Pereira has proven way more and would likely struggle but KO Tom likely before it even goes to decision... Tom is very good, but he isn't a bigger threat than Jiri was... Or Khalil was. Specially since Pereira has evolved in wrestling and won the 5th round vs Ankalaev precisely because he got confident by knowing he could stop the grappling of someone who got a master of Sambo from Makachala in Dagestan — hence, letting his strikes go more freely and stalking... Vs Tom, that confidence would be even bigger, + he'd have a stronger body in all aspects. It's wild to me ppl think it'd be easy for Tom when Alex Pereira is a nightmare for him and would IMO finish him in the 2~4 rounds window convincingly...