Not that any of us should care much right now, but a few more horses have potentially added their names to the Belmont field for next Saturday. Trojan Nation is going to take another shot at it after finishing up the track in the Derby. And then two horses trained by Dallas Stewart are also looking to take a shot. Forever d'Oro and Seeking the Soul. I don't know much about either of those two right now save for that they're both lightly raced horses who only just broke their maidens last time out in close finishes. I'll look into them a little to see if there is something there with either, although they're probably both way overmatched anyways.
I also did some rather geeky pedigree observations earlier today with these Belmont runners and how they compared to recent history, and I saw a trend in the pedigrees of the recent board hitters that seemed to jump out to me. I then looked at the three other classic races for 3 year-olds (Derby, Preakness, and Travers) to see if that trend existed there as well, and yep, it did. I didn't crunch the data or anything, but there's a line in the pedigree that stood out above all others to me. It had to do with AP Indy being bred to a mare sired or grand sired by Mr Prospector. Little did I know that that is actually a very well known line in the pedigree for classic distance races. It's what they call a nick in the breeding sheds, and it is apparently the highest rated one in the breeding game currently. In fact 7 of the top 15 sires in North America today have that nick in their pedigree line, yet only 4 of this year's 13 potential Belmont runners have it in their's. Governor Malibu has it 2 generations back, as does Suddenbreakingnews. Both Creator and Lani have it 3 generations back. That's it.
Frosted had this nick in his pedigree last year when he finished 2nd in the Belmont and 3rd in the Travers. Diving Rod finished 3rd in the Preakness last year with it in his pedigree. California Chrome had the year before when he won the Derby and Preakness. Tonalist had it the same year when he won the Belmont. Orb had it in 2013 when he won the Derby and then finished 3rd in the Belmont and Travers. Alpha had it in 2012 when he won the Travers. Nehro had it when finishing 2nd in the Derby in 2011. Astrology had it when finishing 3rd in the Preakness that year. Stay Thirsty had it that year when finishing 2nd in the Belmont and winning the Travers. Rattlesnake Bridge was 2nd in the Travers with it. Super Saver and Ice Box finished 1-2 in the 2010 Derby with it. First Dude had it when he hit the board in the Preakness, Belmont and the Travers. As did Fly Down when hitting the board in both the Belmont and Travers. I might be forgetting some as well.
That's as far as I went back, but it's pretty crazy how often that line in the pedigree comes up for successful classic distance runners. And while I haven't compiled any data yet to illustrate the impact that line has had compared to the amount of starters with it, some quick preliminary looks at a few of the Derbys shows that there wasn't a whole lot runners that had that nick in their pedigree lines. I'd guess maybe 15%, maybe 20% at most comprised of this in the fields over the last half dozen years since it's only been the last few years where breeders have recognized it's success. Yet they've probably hit the board in these classic races maybe 35% or 40% of the time. Pretty huge impact value I'm guessing, although I'm going to compile that data in the next couple of days since I'm a geek and all.
