Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Beers on @t6p!

Great job my man. And don't worry about me. I was ticked off at myself for about 10 seconds after the race before I was over it. I'm way, way ahead of the game so far this spring anyways. Just happy that we weren't all shut out of the money.

 

[Sharkey]

When asked if Nyquist was going to the Belmont, Steve Rothblum, who is the racing manager for the O'Neill barn said "Oh, we're going". Great news. Keith Desormeaux already said Exaggerator was going to the Belmont on the broadcast. Then we'll have others like Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Destin, Brody's Cause and a couple of others from the Derby pointed to the race as well. Maybe Cherry Wine shows up too. Should be an excellent field if they all go and maybe, just maybe I can get that 25/1 (or better) on Governor Malibu. *rubs hands*

 

[JayElectra]

Sorry I haven't been in here, at all, Sharkey. I've been really busy, recently (a lot of shit with the Fort Mac fires). Anyway, I didn't think Nyquist was the special horse that some thought he was. I made a small amount betting based on my dad's observations, today. I'm in for the Belmont, and I'll probably follow you as you're the far better handicapper.

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry I haven't been in here, at all, Sharkey. I've been really busy, recently (a lot of shit with the Fort Mac fires). Anyway, I didn't think Nyquist was the special horse that some thought he was. I made a small amount betting based on my dad's observations, today. I'm in for the Belmont, and I'll probably follow you as you're the far better handicapper.

Be safe, Jay. Crazy what's going on out there. I've never seen anything like it in my life.

Glad to hear you made some money yesterday. Nice job. Nyquist ran huge considering what he was dealing with for the first mile of the race. Facing pace pressure and dueling on the lead all the way and doing so after running the fastest opening quarter in Preakness history. That was a tremendous effort by him. The horse he was dueling with, Uncle Lino, barely finished the race and had to be vanned back to the barn after it because that battle he and Nyquist had took so much out of him. Exaggerator also ran tremendous too, and was no doubt the deserving winner. He moves up with the win whereas I don't think Nyquist loses anything in defeat. Neither are anything "special" in the strictest sense if speaking historically and I've never thought that. They're just a couple of really good horses who hopefully can compete against each other for more races to come. A good rivalry never hurts any sport. I'll be looking to beat both of them in the Belmont if they both show up, though, as they'll both be big underlays in that race.

 

[Sharkey]

Nyquist is feeling like a little sicky-poo this morning, so his chances of entering the Belmont are pretty small as of now even though the trainer says he still has hope he can enter;

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ikes-fever-did-not-ship-to-belmont?source=rss

That's too bad. I was looking forward to playing against him in a big way in that race if he went regardless of this news. If he does recover quickly and they decide to enter him anyways he just becomes that much more of an auto fade.

 

[Sharkey]

Both Nyquist's trainer, Doug O'Neill, and his jockey, Mario Gutierrez, have been getting absolutely hammered on the internets over the last couple of days for the race strategy and the ride that was given to the horse. Even Andy Beyer is getting into the act saying that was the worst ride he's ever seen in his life as far as Triple Crown races go, and that Nyquist had no business duking it out with a 40/1 shot on the lead like he did. Andy also went on to say that it was the fastest first quarter in Preakness history based on raw times while the track itself was the 2nd slowest in the last 25 years based on track variant. Brutal.

While the ride could certainly have been better, especially at the very start of the race when Nyquist was hustled out of the gate, I think people are being quite unfair to these guys. First off, the horse is 8 to 9 times the weight of his jockey. If a horse wants to battle on the lead like that then there's very little a jockey can do besides try to yank his head back and thus take him out of the race completely. Second of all, like I alluded to a few pages back, Nyquist has a very competitive mind from what I seen from him. One of the most competitive minds I've seen from a horse in a long time actually. If he's going to be hooked up in a battle he's going to fight that battle til the very end. He looks like he loves that stuff and has always tried to insert his dominance over another horse in situations like that. Not only is the jockey riding a horse that's 9 times the size of him, but he was also riding a horse who was determined above anything else to wear down the other horse running beside him. Which Nyquist did. And people think the jockey should have shut the horse off and got him to relax on command? Yeah, good luck with that.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Both Nyquist's trainer, Doug O'Neill, and his jockey, Mario Gutierrez, have been getting absolutely hammered on the internets over the last couple of days for the race strategy and the ride that was given to the horse. Even Andy Beyer is getting into the act saying that was the worst ride he's ever seen in his life as far as Triple Crown races go, and that Nyquist had no business duking it out with a 40/1 shot on the lead like he did. Andy also went on to say that it was the fastest first quarter in Preakness history based on raw times while the track itself was the 2nd slowest in the last 25 years based on track variant. Brutal.

While the ride could certainly have been better, especially at the very start of the race when Nyquist was hustled out of the gate, I think people are being quite unfair to these guys. First off, the horse is 8 to 9 times the weight of his jockey. If a horse wants to battle on the lead like that then there's very little a jockey can do besides try to yank his head back and thus take him out of the race completely. Second of all, like I alluded to a few pages back, Nyquist has a very competitive mind from what I seen from him. One of the most competitive minds I've seen from a horse in a long time actually. If he's going to be hooked up in a battle he's going to fight that battle til the very end. He looks like he loves that stuff and has always tried to insert his dominance over another horse in situations like that. Not only is the jockey riding a horse that's 9 times the size of him, but he was also riding a horse who was determined above anything else to wear down the other horse running beside him. Which Nyquist did. And people think the jockey should have shut the horse off and got him to relax on command? Yeah, good luck with that.

You pointed out something similar with Danzig Candy after Santa Anita, iirc. Basically if a horse wants to go that hard out of the gate then the jockey's just along for the ride, can't really control them when that happens. Seems like the same thing happened here with Nyquist. Gotta respect the horse's competitive spirit for sure, even if it lead to his downfall.

 

[Sharkey]

You pointed out something similar with Danzig Candy after Santa Anita, iirc. Basically if a horse wants to go that hard out of the gate then the jockey's just along for the ride, can't really control them when that happens. Seems like the same thing happened here with Nyquist. Gotta respect the horse's competitive spirit for sure, even if it lead to his downfall.

That's just it. If a jockey has a relaxed horse underneath him then he can have all the control in the world over the horse. But if a horse is intent on running a certain way, whether it be battling on the lead like Nyquist did, or being a complete run off like Danzing Candy was, the jockey is just a passenger at those points. A jockey can physically try to restrain a horse like that and he may succeed in slowing him down a little bit, but they're also doing it at the expense of a horse using that much more energy because they're going to fight you on it if their mind is made up. There's not much they can do. The mistake Nyquist's jockey made was pushing him out of the gate and putting him alongside Uncle Lino within the first 1/8th of the race. After Nyquist was engaged like that then that's it. There's no getting out of it until the battle was decided for a horse with his mind.

 

[Sharkey]

Being the sore loser that I generally am I would love to be able to blame the jockey for my having to rip up some tickets. But I can't blame him for that in the least. Not as being the difference maker anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

Moving on, I can't wait for the Belmont, though. Save for last year when Amercian Pharoah won as the odds-on favourite, always a great betting opportunity on some longer price horses. And the whole card that day is great too. I believe there will be 9 or 10 stake races with 6 of those being big Grade 1 races, which should include a number of 3 year-old horses that you guys have become familiar with this spring on the undercard (in such races as the Easy Goer or Woody Stephens). It's the 2nd best day of racing in North America behind only the Breeders Cup weekend, and it's clsoer to 1st than it is to 3rd.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Looks like Nyquist is out for the Belmont.

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like Nyquist is out for the Belmont.

Yeah, I saw it. Not surprising I guess. Best thing for the horse, but bad news us for bettors since he would have taken up 30-40% of the win pool. It'll still be a very good betting opportunity, though, even without Nyquist.

I believe that leaves 9 on the list of probables as of now; Exaggerator, Destin, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Brody's Cause, Governor Malibu, Cherry Wine, Lani, and Mo Tom. There may be one or two additions to that list and/or one or two subtractions. It may but doubtful, but I wonder if Unified's team decides to enter him now that Nyquist is out. It may be tempting for them with 7 of the 9 probables being pure closers and the other 2 being more like pace stalkers.

 

[Sharkey]

Look at this will ya;

http://www.belmontstakes.com/schedule.aspx

10 stakes races with 9 of those being graded stakes. 6 of them are big Grade 1 races. How good is that? There's going to be $7.5 million on the line in just those 10 races alone, and when you throw in a few allowance races earlier in the day that figure will be bumped up another few hundred grand. Probably close to $8 million in total that's up for grabs. For comparison purposes, this past Saturday's card for the Preakness saw less than $2.75 million up for grabs the whole day which includes the $1.5 million Preakness. If you took the undercard for the Preakness there was less than than $1.25 million at stake in all 13 of the undercard races. That's less than what Belmont is offering up for the Met Mile as a lone race on the Belmont undercard. Great day of racing and plenty of opportunities for bettors. 2nd best day only to the Breeders Cup.

 

[Sharkey]

Still over a week and a half to go before the Belmont and I'm getting a little impatient. Haha. Not much going on, although there has been some minor shuffling on the potential field with Mo Tom being declared out by his trainer and horses like Stradivari (4th in Preakness) and Wild About Deb (3rd in Peter Pan) being added to the list of probables. So as of today we have a potential field looking like this;

Brody's Cause, Cherry Wine, Creator, Destin, Exaggerator, Governor Malibu, Lani, Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, and Wild About Deb

Pretty nice looking field as it sits now, but the only problem is that, save for three of them, they are almost all pure closers in a race where pure closers have had a lot of difficulty getting things done in this race over the past couple of decades. We have 7 horses in the field who like to sit 10, 15 even 20 lengths back in the early running of their races in a race where only one single horse has came from more than 5 lengths back at the half mile mark to win the Belmont over the past 16 years. That was Jazil in 2006. The rest of the Belmont winners over that span were sitting within 5 lengths at the half and stayed within striking distance all throughout the race. One of those 7 is probably going to have to change their running style if they want to have a chance to win, and if none do then, on paper, this looks like it could come down to a 3 horse race for the winner's share of it with Destin, Governor Malibu, and Stradivari. None of the three are front runners either, so if looks like quite the slow pace up front with one of those three being the controlling speed.

As I said earlier in the thread, I like this guy and I like him a lot in this spot as of now;

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/211961/governor-malibu-has-strong-work-for-belmont

Governor Malibu fits a lot of things I look for in a Belmont horse;

- His running style. He's a one pace grinder for the most part, which has been quite successful over the years in long distance races like this. In 6 of his 7 career races he's been within 4 lengths at the half mile mark and the other one he was 6 lengths back. He should be ahead of most of these guys in the running if not all. When asked to do his serious running at the end of races he's also been able to sustain that run for a long, long way. Maybe longer than any other horse in the field from what I've seen so far. Which is probably attributed to...

- Pedigree. Probably the one single dirt race in the US where distance runners in the pedigree matters most. This horse has it. His sire has sired multiple winners at the classic distance, including G1 winners like Orb, Life At Ten and some others. His grand sire is AP Indy, who was a Belmont winner himself and has sired other successful classic distance horses himself, including a Belmont winner in 2007 and a near winner in 2014 in Commissioner. Governor Malibu's dam was strictly a route racer of limited sucess herself, but his dam sire, Langfuhr, has sired a number of horses that have been successful at the 12F distance of the Belmont, including multiple G1 winners at that distance. Governor Malinu also comes from the Northern Dancer dam sire line, which has produced 10 of the last 14 Belmont winners. As it sits now, he's the only potential runner in the field who has that dam sire line in fact.

- Governor Malibu's home track is Belmont. That's where he has spend most of his time training during his career, including each of his last 4 official workouts. That's also where 3 of the 7 races he has had took place and each of those races were a good race where he hit the board, including two close losses at a combined margin of maybe a half a length. Of historical note, 15 of the last 21 Belmont Stakes winners had ran a previous good race over the track, and Governor Malibu has 3 of them to his credit. The Peter Pan itself has also been a good prep for the Belmont in recent years with 8 of the last 12 horses coming out of that race having filled up spots in the superfecta after running that race, including two winners and two place finishers.

- His trainer. Christophe Clement has a deserved reputation as being one of the best trainers in the game as conditioning his horses to run long distances. He's also got a deserved reputation for being one of the most conservative trainers when it comes to taking it slowly with developing 3 year-olds and he very much tends to bring them along gradually. i.e. He won't put a horse like this in a race like this if he doesn't think he has a real shot at it. Clement is never in these big races like this just to be there. Of note, Clement was the trainer for the 2014 Belmont winner, Tonalist, who was also brought along slowly.

- His jockey. The Belmont is often called a jockey's race due to the importance of the rider in this one. The track is unlike any other with just the sheer size of it, as well as the distance of the race being one that not many. The jockey has to be extremely patient riding this race, has to know when to make the moves, and it helps a ton when the jockey knows the track itself. Joel Rosario will be riding Governor Malibu in this race, and he's been one of the leading jockeys at the Belmont track for a number of years now, including this year so far where he currently sits 2nd in winning percentage (20%), and 1st overall at the track in hitting the board (60%). Rosario was also a part of team Tonalist in the Belmont a couple of years ago, as he rode that one to victory in the race.

Governor Malibu also has that positive pattern to his performances, which I've talked about a few times in the thread with other horses. He's also making his third start off a layoff as well if you want to use that angle. Whether he's good enough, who's to say. Time will tell. But he should be ready to give his best effort and has a lot of things that point to him as a very intriguing longshot for the race.

Here's Governor Malibu's last two races, and both were quite impressive for different reasons;

 

[t6p]

I noticed some early lines up on 5dimes if anyone is interested:

Exaggerator -160
Suddenbreakingnews +500
Stradivari +800
Cherry Wine +900
Destin +1200
Brody's Cause +1100
Lani +1500
Mo Tom +1600
Governor Malibu +1600
Creator +2200
Unified +2200
Mor Spirit +2500
Adventist +2500
Its All Relevant +2500
Forever dOro +3000
Wild About Deb +3300
Seeking the Soul +3500

 

[Sharkey]

I noticed some early lines up on 5dimes if anyone is interested:

Exaggerator -160
Suddenbreakingnews +500
Stradivari +800
Cherry Wine +900
Destin +1200
Brody's Cause +1100
Lani +1500
Mo Tom +1600
Governor Malibu +1600
Creator +2200
Unified +2200
Mor Spirit +2500
Adventist +2500
Its All Relevant +2500
Forever dOro +3000
Wild About Deb +3300
Seeking the Soul +3500

Those lines on Suddenbreakingnews and Cherry Wine are pretty silly, especially compared to a horse like Creator who's been better than both of them when they faced each other out on the track this spring.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

It's hard for me not to want to bet Creator here along with Malibu. Still love that fucking horse from that Arkansas run.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Also, Creator down to 20-1 and Governor Malibu up to 20-1. Who would you put a bigger win bet on between the two @Sharkey ?

 

[Sharkey]

Also, Creator down to 20-1 and Governor Malibu up to 20-1. Who would you put a bigger win bet on between the two @Sharkey ?

Governor Malibu for sure. I talked him up a lot in that big wall of text up there.

These deep closers like Creator (or Suddenbreakingnews, Cherry Wine, etc) are usually up against in the Belmont unless they change their running style for the race. They have to run the 10F distance of the Derby in the Belmont before they can even think about starting their late run and by that time their energy levels have been depleted significantly thus making that late kick of theirs much less powerful. If you know what I mean. Over the last 25 years there's only been a couple of horses that came from more than 5 lengths back at the half mile mark to win the Belmont. Only one horse in the last 25 years came from more than 10 lengths back at that point to win. Very few even manage to hit the board in the Belmont with that deep closing style either.

If Creator does change his running style in the race then I think he could be dangerous. We talked about the stamina in his breeding earlier in the year, and his performances on the track with how long he could sustain his run backs up that breeding. He's also getting a very positive jockey change for the race, as he'll have Irad Ortiz Jr riding him in the Belmont, who was the track's overall leading jockey both last year and the year before. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, has also talked about how they're trying to get a little more early speed from the gate out of Creator in his workouts, so it's entirely possible we see him more involved in the race during the early going. There's a few other things to like as well.

 

[Sharkey]

It's hard for me not to want to bet Creator here along with Malibu. Still love that fucking horse from that Arkansas run.

I'm the same way, bud. It's very easy to cross a line through his Derby race considering how badly he was blocked and banged around on the turn. Actually there is some positives to take from his performance at the end of the race. After getting blocked badly and then banged sideways as they hit the turn, the horse still didn't give up. He was still able to dig down some after having that happen to him, continue trying, and was able to pass a handful of horses before they hit the line. He's a strong willed horse that will give his best regardless of the situation. If you end up backing him in the Belmont that should give you some confidence that he won't throw a clunker of a race or quit during the stretch when fatigue sets in. He's a stayer regardless of how he performs.