Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the Belmont;

1 - Governor Malibu - 12/1
2 - Destin - 6/1
3 - Cherry Wine - 8/1
4 - Suddenbreakingnews - 10/1
5 - Stradivari - 5/1
6 - Gettysburg - 30/1
7 - Seeking the Soul - 30/1
8 - Forever d'Oro - 30/1
9 - Trojan Nation - 30/1
10 - Lani - 20/1
11 - Exaggerator - 9/5
12 - Brody's Cause - 20/1
13 - Creator - 10/1

 

[Sharkey]

You know a race is confusing to you when you start looking at a horse like Forever d'Oro to fill out exotic tickets. He'll probably be about 40/1 when they enter the gates, but there's at least a few things there to like with him along with a lot of things not to like. He's one of only three horses in the field to have a good race over the Belmont track, which happened to be the best race of his short racing career so far when he won over the track a couple of weeks ago. His pedigree is solid enough for the race with his sire having multiple G1 route races and finished 2nd in the Belmont in 2003, his dam having won the Kentucky Oaks in 2006, and his dam sire also having won multiple G1 route races including the Belmont and Travers in 1999. Better pedigree than a lot of these guys I'd say. Forever d'Oro also showed an ability to finish when he won that race a couple weeks back, which suggests that the stamina influences in his breeding have been passed along to him. He'll also have one of the better Belmont jockeys riding him this race in Jose Ortiz, who is the leading jockey at Belmont so far this year if going by win % and is also 2nd in top 3 %. This horse is likely going to be up against it in a big way considering the huge class jump being asked of him and how little experience he has. But at 40/1 in a race that has historically seen it's share of whacky results from horses that fit his profile in a lot of ways, why the hell not. I'm probably reaching with this guy in an attempt to find somebody else to play with Governor Malibu and then Creator. But a little dab here and there with him to finish 2nd or 3rd at huge odds wouldn't kill me.

Here's his last race on this track;

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/BEL/2016/5/29/5/race-5-msw-at-bel-on-5-29-16

 

[Sharkey]

A lot of this stuff can be confusing as hell, but here's some things on Dr Romans site in regards to pace parameters and whatnot if anybody is interested. If you scroll down to the bottom of the page you'll find a ranking of what were deemed to be the more important pace parameters;

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2016/2016_belmont_contenders.htm

I've been looking at this site for years now, and while I don't think the data there is particularly useful in picking out Belmont winners, I do find it quite useful in picking out those big longshots that can outrun their odds and fill out exotics. Horses like Brilliant Speed (3rd), Atigun (3rd), Incognito (4th by half length), Medal Count (3rd) all profiled quite well on Dr Romans` pace parameters and then went on to finish well in the Belmont as longshots.

 

[Sharkey]

Been looking over the PPs of the Belmont undercard today, and I'm pretty positive that I'm going to be playing a number of those races like so come Saturday;

http://www.drf.com/race-entries/track/BEL/country/USA/date/06-11-2016

Race 3 - The Acorn; I landed on the #4 Carina Mia (4/1 ML), but I may also play a saver exacta with her under the #5 Cathryn Sophia. Carina Mia will get my win bet, though.

Race 4 - The Brooklyn; #7 Kid Cruz to win (3/1 ML). It's his first start off the lay off, but if he's ready to run then it's hard to see him not being the most likely winner here.

Race 7 - The Woody Stephens; It's hard not seeing this race fitting an off the pace type, so I landed on the #7 Counterforce who if he's any where close to his 15/1 ML I be doing cartwheels. He's a huge overlay at anything close to that.

Race 10 - The Manhattan; The #10 Flintshire could be tough here, but I'm going to take a shot with the #11 Divisidero near his 8/1 ML. May also play the saver exacta with those two as well.


That's what I got so far. The Easy Goer is basically unplayable to me with a 5 horse field and with Cupid entered. Don't see an alternative to him worth playing. Still trying to find something to play in the Met Mile (race 9), though, but that one looks really tough and completely wide open to me. Need to look at it more.

 

[Sharkey]

For what it's worth, you guys who got Governor Malibu at 20/1 are getting a tremendous price on him. I'm jealous actually. I've seen him getting a lot of support over the last couple of days from public handicappers. A whole lot of support. It's everywhere. It sucks, but I'll be shocked if I even get that 12/1 indicated on his morning line. I'm thinking maybe 8/1 now, or 10/1 tops. It's a shitty deal. But I guess if an idiot like me can see how well he fits in this race then others would as well. It's too bad.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm still trying to find something to play in the Met Mile yet I'm no closer than I was yesterday. I really hate that I may end up passing on this race considering it's such a wide open field that should present some nice prices.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=9&param1=3726&param2=759&param3=1197504

I don't want Frosted, Noble Bird, Stanford or Tamarkuz and then both El Kabeir & Sloane Avenue have been scratched out of the race since the post draw. That still leaves me with a group of seven to pick from, though. Maybe I'll just throw a 4 horse trifecta box in there with Ami's Flatter, Calculator, Upstart and Donworth, and then hope for the best. That does seem like to much of a reach, though, so I don't know. I'm clueless on this one.

 

[t6p]

Race 3 - The Acorn; I landed on the #4 Carina Mia (4/1 ML), but I may also play a saver exacta with her under the #5 Cathryn Sophia. Carina Mia will get my win bet, though.

Race 4 - The Brooklyn; #7 Kid Cruz to win (3/1 ML). It's his first start off the lay off, but if he's ready to run then it's hard to see him not being the most likely winner here.

Race 7 - The Woody Stephens; It's hard not seeing this race fitting an off the pace type, so I landed on the #7 Counterforce who if he's any where close to his 15/1 ML I be doing cartwheels. He's a huge overlay at anything close to that.

Race 10 - The Manhattan; The #10 Flintshire could be tough here, but I'm going to take a shot with the #11 Divisidero near his 8/1 ML. May also play the saver exacta with those two as well.

After that nice Preakness hit I'm tailing you small on all these in addition to what I already have on Governor Malibu and Creator. So much awesome info in this thread. Good luck tomorrow man.

 

[Sharkey]

After that nice Preakness hit I'm tailing you small on all these in addition to what I already have on Governor Malibu and Creator. So much awesome info in this thread. Good luck tomorrow man.

Best of luck toy you as well, T.

I'm playing those races small myself since I'm basically going on the past performances and then memory of seeing a lot of them run in their past races. Obviously didn't dig into those races nearly as much as a race like the Belmont. But with such a stacked card of racing tomorrow involving so many good horses it's hard to pass up the opportunity to make a buck or two before the big one is ran.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@Sharkey here's some match ups, wondering if you like any. Know we're on Malibu and liking Creator, any of the others look tempting to you?

Governor Malibu -125
Lani -105
-----------------

Destin -105
Stradivari -125
---------------------------

Cherry Wine +135
Suddenbreakingnews -165

------------------------------------

Brody's Cause -115
Creator -115
-------------------------------

Seeking the Soul -115
Forever d'Oro -115

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey here's some match ups, wondering if you like any. Know we're on Malibu and liking Creator, any of the others look tempting to you?

Governor Malibu -125
Lani -105
-----------------

Destin -105
Stradivari -125
---------------------------

Cherry Wine +135
Suddenbreakingnews -165

------------------------------------

Brody's Cause -115
Creator -115
-------------------------------

Seeking the Soul -115
Forever d'Oro -115

Well, I'll be playing Governor Malibu, Creator and Forever d'Oro later today, so I like the matchups they're involved in there. I'd pass on the matchup with the Pletcher pair of Destin and Stradivari since I wouldn't be able to trust either of them. One or both of them can either run really big or spit the bit and finish near the back. No preference there. As far as the other matchup goes, I really don't like Cherry Wine at all in this spot even though he finished well in the Preakness. This race today doesn't set up for him nearly as well as that race. Suddenbreakingnews may have been the 4th horse I used if I went that way, so I think there's a pretty good chance he runs a good race today. I think his chances of running better than Cherry Wine is quite a bit more than 60%, so I'd maybe play that line on that matchup. Your call, though, of course.

 

[Sharkey]

Been looking over the PPs of the Belmont undercard today, and I'm pretty positive that I'm going to be playing a number of those races like so come Saturday;

http://www.drf.com/race-entries/track/BEL/country/USA/date/06-11-2016

Race 3 - The Acorn; I landed on the #4 Carina Mia (4/1 ML), but I may also play a saver exacta with her under the #5 Cathryn Sophia. Carina Mia will get my win bet, though.

Race 4 - The Brooklyn; #7 Kid Cruz to win (3/1 ML). It's his first start off the lay off, but if he's ready to run then it's hard to see him not being the most likely winner here.

Race 7 - The Woody Stephens; It's hard not seeing this race fitting an off the pace type, so I landed on the #7 Counterforce who if he's any where close to his 15/1 ML I be doing cartwheels. He's a huge overlay at anything close to that.

Race 10 - The Manhattan; The #10 Flintshire could be tough here, but I'm going to take a shot with the #11 Divisidero near his 8/1 ML. May also play the saver exacta with those two as well.


That's what I got so far. The Easy Goer is basically unplayable to me with a 5 horse field and with Cupid entered. Don't see an alternative to him worth playing. Still trying to find something to play in the Met Mile (race 9), though, but that one looks really tough and completely wide open to me. Need to look at it more.

I'm going to head out the door and make these above plays in a few hours with the exception being the saver exacta in the Acorn. I'll just be betting Carina Mia to win in that one since it doesn't seem like I'll be getting the 4/1 on her indicated in the morning line. Probably 3/1 or 5/2 when they enter the gates. No sense playing against yourself at a short price like that. I will play that saver exacta I mentioned in the Manhattan (race 10), though, along with a win bet on Divisidero.

I've also settled on the Canadian bred Ami's Flatter in the Met Mile (race 9) because, well, he's Canadian. i.e. I'm basically just throwing a dart here at one of a handful that I can see getting it done. If any of you guys would like to have something on the Met Mile yourself and don't have an opinion, I'd maybe look for a potential overlay by comparing the price you are offered to what the morning line odds were. This race is really, really, wide open, so you can't make a bad pick no matter who you land on I don't think. It's a great race with a whole lot of depth to it.

I'll be playing the Belmont like so;

- Governor Malibu to Win/Place
- Forever d'Oro to Show
- Governor Malibu, Creator over Governor Malibu, Creator, Forever d'Oro in four exacta wagers

 

[Sharkey]

Governor Malibu currently sitting at 22/1 as of a few minutes ago. Huh. Maybe I will get a nice price on him afterall, although we're still way early in the pools. Creator currently at 16/1 and Forever d'Oro at 66/1.

http://www.belmontstakes.com/belmont-live-odds.aspx

If Forever d'Oro finishes 2nd to one of those other two, I could be looking at a 1000/1 or better exacta. Craziness.

 

[Sharkey]

However he runs later on in the Belmont, Gettysburg will be able to at least take solace in the fact that he took ownership of Cupid's soul in the Arkansas Derby with Cupid having just finished last in the Easy Goer as the odds-on favourite.

 

[Sharkey]

Carina Mia gets us off to a good start by taking the Acorn at just a shade over 2/1. Not the price I wanted with her, but we beat the odds-on favourite and get to cash a ticket in the end. All that matters.

 

[timmyclax22]

I'm going to head out the door and make these above plays in a few hours with the exception being the saver exacta in the Acorn. I'll just be betting Carina Mia to win in that one since it doesn't seem like I'll be getting the 4/1 on her indicated in the morning line. Probably 3/1 or 5/2 when they enter the gates. No sense playing against yourself at a short price like that. I will play that saver exacta I mentioned in the Manhattan (race 10), though, along with a win bet on Divisidero.

I've also settled on the Canadian bred Ami's Flatter in the Met Mile (race 9) because, well, he's Canadian. i.e. I'm basically just throwing a dart here at one of a handful that I can see getting it done. If any of you guys would like to have something on the Met Mile yourself and don't have an opinion, I'd maybe look for a potential overlay by comparing the price you are offered to what the morning line odds were. This race is really, really, wide open, so you can't make a bad pick no matter who you land on I don't think. It's a great race with a whole lot of depth to it.

I'll be playing the Belmont like so;

- Governor Malibu to Win/Place
- Forever d'Oro to Show
- Governor Malibu, Creator over Governor Malibu, Creator, Forever d'Oro in four exacta wagers

Sharkey how are you betting those unit wise? Thanks for the picks buddy! Nice hit on the early race!

 

[Sharkey]

Sharkey how are you betting those unit wise? Thanks for the picks buddy! Nice hit on the early race!

Thanks man.

Most of my bankroll for today is on the Belmont itself since that is the race I put most of my time into.

2u on Carnia Mia
2u on Kid Cruz (who just shit the bed as the favourite)
2u on Counterforce
1u on Ami's Flatter
1u on Divisidero and then 1u on the exacta

5u on Governor Malibu to win then another 5u on him to show
5u on Forever d'Oro to show
1u each on those 4 four exactas involving the above two with Creator

 

[Sharkey]

"5u on Governor Malibu to win then another 5u on him to show"

That should read Governor Malibu to win and to place. Not to show. My mistake.

 

[Sharkey]

I generally dislike betting favourites. And I hate them that much more when they lose. I think I've bet Kid Cruz 4 times in his career so far, and 3 of those times he crapped the bed for me, although this is the first time he did it at short odds. Lesson learned with him and won't trust him again.

 

[Sharkey]

"5u on Governor Malibu to win then another 5u on him to show"

That should read Governor Malibu to win and to place. Not to show. My mistake.

Mind you, a show bet on Governor Malibu wouldn't be the worst idea in the world at his current 22/1 if you like him and want a little extra insurance with him. A show bet may pay in the range of about 4/1 if just going on his current win odds.

 

[Sharkey]

My last 3 picks have shit the bed with Frosted apparently smashing everyone in the Met Mile. On the bright side, Joel Rosario, who rides Governor Malibu later on, has been on fire with a G1 win, two G2 wins, and then a G1 place so far today. Stay hot.