Just curious, did anyone profit from betting over time?

KBE6EKCTAH_CCP said:
OK so why are we talking about that fight? I would not have bought Smith personally at -132 but it does not sound like he bet against the tide.

But I think I may see what he saw. He saw a super aggressive , less technical apanyent whose only chance is to brawl and get a KO in the first. He saw Smith as someone who won't get KOd easily in the first and who is sound technically and with decent endurance, enough to negate the agression. In hindsight feels like a decent bet at -130. Would not have done it, but sure why not, nothing crazy here IMHO.
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what do you mean betting against the tide? you mean public trend?
 
JustOnce said:
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Lol there's no secret, though there are some tricks of the trade. Bankroll management, proper betting theory, and the many hours of tape/research required for each fight
 
KBE6EKCTAH_CCP said:
You don't understand. That dude has a bankroll in six figures. That is just one bet for him. Likely he bets like 10K per event or something.
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I don't know if you saw his reply to his reasoning behind Smith pick, but I think that's pretty cool. Very interesting indeed, was impressed but could be helped by the outcome, but sometimes good choices doesn't lead to good outcomes or the other way around, but I think that was pretty cool. Though I could be influenced by his reputation and the outcome of the fight itself, pretty neat way to have looked at it and bet big and win.
 
JustOnce said:
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The overall process is fairly simple. Tape and research til you've answered all questions, assign a probability, compare to the odds, determine stake based on edge and confidence in the read, then do your best to time your bet and get the best possible line. Many little nuances in there you'll only learn with experience.
 
Sadistics said:
The overall process is fairly simple. Tape and research til you've answered all questions, assign a probability, compare to the odds, determine stake based on edge and confidence in the read, then do your best to time your bet and get the best possible line. Many little nuances in there you'll only learn with experience.
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What do you think about parlays? Do you do them? It looked like from someone else posted you didn't.
 
Sadistics said:
The overall process is fairly simple. Tape and research til you've answered all questions, assign a probability, compare to the odds, determine stake based on edge and confidence in the read, then do your best to time your bet and get the best possible line. Many little nuances in there you'll only learn with experience.
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tenor.gif
 
JustOnce said:
What do you think about parlays? Do you do them? It looked like from someone else posted you didn't.
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They're mathematically -EV, the only reason to do them is to skirt limits
 
JustOnce said:
what is 'mathemmatically -EV', and 'to skirt limits'?
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-EV = negative expected value. As for limits, every book has a limit on every line. If you parlay it for said limit, it'll take your winnings + stake from the first leg and carry it over to the second parlay leg, effectively letting you bet more than the limit.
 
Sadistics said:
-EV = negative expected value. As for limits, every book has a limit on every line. If you parlay it for said limit, it'll take your winnings + stake from the first leg and carry it over to the second parlay leg, effectively letting you bet more than the limit.
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Ah I see! What do you think about hedging bets? I'm guessing you don't do them?
 
Based on what was posted by the other posted from two other events anyways
 
Sadistics said:
-EV = negative expected value. As for limits, every book has a limit on every line. If you parlay it for said limit, it'll take your winnings + stake from the first leg and carry it over to the second parlay leg, effectively letting you bet more than the limit.
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tenor.gif
 
JustOnce said:
Ah I see! What do you think about hedging bets? I'm guessing you don't do them?
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Rarely do I hedge, but I have slightly hedged one bet this week

Benitez +110 $4000
Jaynes RD1 +600 $150

Last year was my first year of extremely detailed tracking, and it showed that at least MY hedges were slightly -EV
 
Sadistics said:
Rarely do I hedge, but I have slightly hedged one bet this week

Benitez +110 $4000
Jaynes RD1 +600 $150

Last year was my first year of extremely detailed tracking, and it showed that at least MY hedges were slightly -EV
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What do you mean by detailed tracking?

What do you think about betting on fight outcomes?

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JustOnce said:
What do you mean by detailed tracking?

What do you think about betting on fight outcomes?

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For me I use a Google sheets document with a bunch of columned filters such as bet range, odds type, weight class etc. I input every bet I place in there and use it for self reflection.

Props are great, but just like any bet you want to make sure it holds solid value to bet it. The biggest challenge with them is getting a significant stake down as limits are much lower
 
Sadistics said:
Rarely do I hedge, but I have slightly hedged one bet this week

Benitez +110 $4000
Jaynes RD1 +600 $150

Last year was my first year of extremely detailed tracking, and it showed that at least MY hedges were slightly -EV
Click to expand...
you never livebet hedge? Often when I am big on a guy and he is winning the first round I sprinkle a bit on the opponent if odds are a bit ridiculous, might be -ev but you reduce the risk. Sometimes I also switch completely to the opponent like for example in the Chookagian vs Calvillo fight, after 30 secs it was clear to me that Chook was gonna win easily so I pounded her Live. Or do you just always ride your prefight bets?
 
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