Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JustOnce, Nov 28, 2020.
what do you mean betting against the tide? you mean public trend?
Lol there's no secret, though there are some tricks of the trade. Bankroll management, proper betting theory, and the many hours of tape/research required for each fight
I don't know if you saw his reply to his reasoning behind Smith pick, but I think that's pretty cool. Very interesting indeed, was impressed but could be helped by the outcome, but sometimes good choices doesn't lead to good outcomes or the other way around, but I think that was pretty cool. Though I could be influenced by his reputation and the outcome of the fight itself, pretty neat way to have looked at it and bet big and win.
Whenever you bet on a favourite you bet with the tide.
ah makes sense
The overall process is fairly simple. Tape and research til you've answered all questions, assign a probability, compare to the odds, determine stake based on edge and confidence in the read, then do your best to time your bet and get the best possible line. Many little nuances in there you'll only learn with experience.
But dude I am a poor gambler not sure you should be asking me for theory advice lol. Some serious bettors here, ask them and I' ll read. Good luck.
What do you think about parlays? Do you do them? It looked like from someone else posted you didn't.
They're mathematically -EV, the only reason to do them is to skirt limits
what is 'mathemmatically -EV', and 'to skirt limits'?
-EV = negative expected value. As for limits, every book has a limit on every line. If you parlay it for said limit, it'll take your winnings + stake from the first leg and carry it over to the second parlay leg, effectively letting you bet more than the limit.
Ah I see! What do you think about hedging bets? I'm guessing you don't do them?
Based on what was posted by the other posted from two other events anyways
Rarely do I hedge, but I have slightly hedged one bet this week
Benitez +110 $4000
Jaynes RD1 +600 $150
Last year was my first year of extremely detailed tracking, and it showed that at least MY hedges were slightly -EV
What do you mean by detailed tracking?
What do you think about betting on fight outcomes?
For me I use a Google sheets document with a bunch of columned filters such as bet range, odds type, weight class etc. I input every bet I place in there and use it for self reflection.
Props are great, but just like any bet you want to make sure it holds solid value to bet it. The biggest challenge with them is getting a significant stake down as limits are much lower
you never livebet hedge? Often when I am big on a guy and he is winning the first round I sprinkle a bit on the opponent if odds are a bit ridiculous, might be -ev but you reduce the risk. Sometimes I also switch completely to the opponent like for example in the Chookagian vs Calvillo fight, after 30 secs it was clear to me that Chook was gonna win easily so I pounded her Live. Or do you just always ride your prefight bets?
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