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Just curious, did anyone profit from betting over time?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JustOnce, Nov 28, 2020.

  1. JustOnce Itami

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    Hm actually I wonder if that's true. I didn't understand this post at first, but it kinda makes sense.

    If you only bet the favs and if the bookies are right with their line adjusting, eventually you'd lost all your money.

    It sounds odd, what am I missing here?

    if it's 60/40 odds, and if that's right over the course of time, you would have no profit.

    If bookies are right in the long run, you would lose money..I guess maybe you wouldn't lose all your money since it's the percentage of the sum of the money you play?
     
  2. JustOnce Itami

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    So I stand corrected, you'd lose all your money if and only if your betting odds difference is big enough, i mean the winning percentage...man basic math is so hard nowadays...
     
  3. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Vive le Québec libre !

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    We'll see it as placing your bet on flipping a coin. You should be loosing some money and winning some money 50% of the time.

    So your profit should converge to zero and your account should remain the same after a big enough iteration. Right?

    Now if you are betting on a coin toss but getting 49% odds, then with big enough iterations you will loose all your money because that 1% will eat away your capital.

    That is what gambling by betting on favourites is. On average. So you need to know what bets have good odds and poor ones. Not easy to beat the community IMO. But there IS dumb money in sport gambling though.
     
  4. JustOnce Itami

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    I still wanna know what whatever his name is doing.

    With all due respect and credit given, betting two grand on smith....
     
  5. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Betting is easy money. Most people are profitable long term, you should bet all your money on what Gianni the greek says.
     
  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Against Devin Clark...
     
    shankmcgank likes this.
  7. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Vive le Québec libre !

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    What were the odds again? Smith was an underdog by how much?
     
  8. JustOnce Itami

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    well is that right? Sounds like good attitude to bet the house and lose it. If it's easy money, how much money did you make so far if you are kind enough to share with us mortals
     
  9. JustOnce Itami

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    probably +130 I'm not sure. I think in hindsight he may have caught onto the two submission losses by Clark, though one of them was after getting rocked I think. But then again, I could be giving the guy too much credit.
     
  10. JustOnce Itami

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    Apparently he was the favourite by -132
     
  11. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Vive le Québec libre !

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    OK so why are we talking about that fight? I would not have bought Smith personally at -132 but it does not sound like he bet against the tide.

    But I think I may see what he saw. He saw a super aggressive , less technical apanyent whose only chance is to brawl and get a KO in the first. He saw Smith as someone who won't get KOd easily in the first and who is sound technically and with decent endurance, enough to negate the agression. In hindsight feels like a decent bet at -130. Would not have done it, but sure why not, nothing crazy here IMHO.
     
  12. JustOnce Itami

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    Yeah problem is he bet 2500 on Smith. I mean, I love Smith, I was backing Smith all the way through Jones fight when people were shitting on him. That fight in my opinion could have gone either way.

    Clark wasn't and isn't as bad as some people make him out to be. Smith is pretty good too, but you bet 2500 on Smith?
     
  13. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Vive le Québec libre !

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    You don't understand. That dude has a bankroll in six figures. That is just one bet for him. Likely he bets like 10K per event or something.
     
  14. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    You shouldn't bet dude
     
  15. JustOnce Itami

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    oh hey you are that guy
    what was reasoning behind betting 2500 on Smith if you don't mind me asking?
     
  16. JustOnce Itami

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    Yeah just odd, someone posted two event bets, and doesn't look like anything special, though maybe I'm missing something.

    It could be argued if you have enough money to waste like that, and if you know enough, you would profit in the long run though, since you could take a loss and still stick with your approach.
     
  17. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Clark had a slim path of cage hugging to a 5 round decision, while Smith could finish from any position in any way at any time while being the only one to apply real damage. In hindsight it should've been a max bet near evens
     
  18. JustOnce Itami

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    [​IMG]
     
  19. JustOnce Itami

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    Interesting, interesting, interesting.

    Well played Sir
     
  20. JustOnce Itami

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    [​IMG]
     

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