jds "lucky" punch

TS statement is not very good but his point is.
JDS didn't swing wildly and hit, he actually set up this punch well with body shots, it was a calculated strike, although the strike itself was far from perfect in form.
 
I keep reading that the punch that dropped cain was pure luck.

Well then you should stop reading. You read right.


im with bass rutten on this subject... If the punch thrown was aimed at the head and it lands, its not lucky.

No, but a certain amount of chance is involved in that being the outcome of the strike. I think what people want to avoid saying is that the punch landing and doing damage is all luck and all chance.

Same with Cung le vs franklin
le: it was a lucky punch..
Bass: but you throwed the punch while aiming at the head
Le: Yes
Bass: then it wasnt lucky

Joe Rogan also subscribes to the, "no-luck" punches.

Btw, when is Dana White going to let Bas Rutten into the UFC in some kind of administration, broadcasting, or scouting position? Come on man....Rutten needs to be in the front office or behind a microphone.
 
wasn't luck because JDS has KO power, so it was supposed to do damage. Serra was lucky against GSP because it was just an average punch from an average guy that did way better than it would have 99% of the time. Lucky means fluke, almost impossible to happen.
 
That's because "luck" is an ugly word. I prefer the term "probability".

And the probability of JDS finishing his opponent with strikes is always high.

this is the right answer. Probability should replace luck.

Serra and Cung Le can throw that same punch out against GSP or Franklin 100 times and it might land flush once. it just so happens that the one time was in their big fight. Not luck, as they intended it but very low probability.

As you move up the food chain guys like JDS and Anderson at the pinnacle increase their probability far more because they are so much better at getting an opponents timing down and setting up a punch to cause a somewhat predictable counter move to catch the opponent. And they may have that 'clutch' aspect that allows them to have their best performances under the biggest pressure. Maybe for JDS he lands that perfect 'catch you type' strike one out of every 5 fights and Anderson one out of 2 fights or whatever the number is.

again not luck but not necessarily high probability in the biggest fight of your life. but their additional skill and clutch performances make it not just a 'lucky' punch.
 
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Hey folks, while we are talking about words and their proper applications, let us stop using the word, "logic," when we mean, "reason."

There is not such thing as "retarded logic." Bad reasoning. Reason, inferring, making an argument can all apply logical principles but they are NOT merely logic themselves.

Some logics that are out there are, deontic, modal, syllogistic, quantificational, informal, belief.....
 
There's a degree of luck to every strike. There's even luck in chess. You throw a strike based on your perception of your opponent's movements. Whether your perception is correct has a high degree of variance- luck. Whether your strike is thrown exactly as you intended is also subject to luck. Whether your strike just wobbles a guy or finishes him is also luck.

Was it a punch that crosses that imaginary line into being what we call a "lucky" punch? It was pretty close, I say yes. I also think he'll get "lucky" again tonight.

If you think in two fights he'll get lucky in two straight fights against the same opponent, then you don't have the correct definition of the term lucky.
 
There's no such thing as a lucky punch in MMA unless you're swinging wildly with your eyes closed.

Even if you swing with your eyes closed... if you land then thats still not that lucky. You had intent to hit them and did.

Your opponent is responsible for defense. Nothin lucky at all about strikes.
 
It was 'lucky' to me in the sense that it was the best result possible given the variables, eg precise location it landed, Cain not moving slightly to lessen the potential damage etc.

It was not lucky in the sense that JDS trains to hit people very hard and has physical gifts making it easier for him to do it than most. I certainly think there was an element of luck, but JDS works very hard so he can perform in such a manner, so I wouldn't try and detract from his success by downplaying his effort or writing it off as 'pure luck'.

I guess we'll see if he has it in him to be lucky again today!

There ya have it folks, all things in the universe are the way they are because of luck
 
TS statement is not very good but his point is.
JDS didn't swing wildly and hit, he actually set up this punch well with body shots, it was a calculated strike, although the strike itself was far from perfect in form.

Yeah. but to go even further. Grab your popcorn ;-) another example of a "luck" case
. think about gsp vs serra... serra aimed, timed, and struck. Gsps defence wasnt there, (headmovement, parrying ,guard). so serras landed those punches on Gsp through superior offence at that moment, not Italian Jesus wathing over the guido .
so i don't consider serras win as "lucky"when he managed to take the title from the Greek god Gsp.
but Then again the word luck is confusing in the context of fighting sports in general.
So ill stop right here ranting about luck and go get us some liquor for tonights fight ;-)
 
wasn't luck because JDS has KO power, so it was supposed to do damage. Serra was lucky against GSP because it was just an average punch from an average guy that did way better than it would have 99% of the time. Lucky means fluke, almost impossible to happen.

That's still not Luck though IMO. Serra proved he was the better fighter on that night. If GSP was the better fighter that night he would have had the defense to avoid that.
 
By the way guys, "luck" does not even exist, it's just a human concept.
 
Lucky would be defined more easily in that if they fought 100 times would it ever happen again. Matt Sera got lucky against GSP the first time. Was he trying to hurt GSP when he threw his punches? Yes. If they fought another 100 times would he ever get a KO of GSP? No.

If JDS and Cain fought 100 times would Cain get KOed again? I would say yes. Would Cain win some of those fights? I would say yes. We will see what happens tonight.
 
By the way guys, "luck" does not even exist, it's just a human concept.

Youre gonna turn this into a mayberry discussion saying that.

Kind of agree.. also "variance" is a much better word than "luck"
 
Lucky would be defined more easily in that if they fought 100 times would it ever happen again. Matt Sera got lucky against GSP the first time. Was he trying to hurt GSP when he threw his punches? Yes. If they fought another 100 times would he ever get a KO of GSP? No.

If JDS and Cain fought 100 times would Cain get KOed again? I would say yes. Would Cain win some of those fights? I would say yes. We will see what happens tonight.

Matt Serra would definitely KO GSP again out of 100. Do people realize that mr. invulnerable GSP has lost not once, but *gasp* twice! Everyone loses many times out of 100 including GSP.
 
Lucky would be defined more easily in that if they fought 100 times would it ever happen again. Matt Sera got lucky against GSP the first time. Was he trying to hurt GSP when he threw his punches? Yes. If they fought another 100 times would he ever get a KO of GSP? No.

If JDS and Cain fought 100 times would Cain get KOed again? I would say yes. Would Cain win some of those fights? I would say yes. We will see what happens tonight.

You can make an argument that
Gsp improved his defence and gameplan for serra II. Based on the first fight, why not think that that serra would beat that Gsp 5/10 on that night. you really can't know. the thing we know as fact is that serra won that night as dominant as one can win. So why think Gsp would have beaten him 9/10??(on that night)


(again, my English terminology probably isn't perfect)
 
I keep reading that the punch that dropped cain was pure luck.

im with bass rutten on this subject... If the punch thrown was aimed at the head and it lands, its not lucky.

Same with Cung le vs franklin
le: it was a lucky punch..
Bass: but you throwed the punch while aiming at the head
Le: Yes
Bass: then it wasnt lucky

what if he was aiming for the body?
 
It does not matter what people typing on a keyboard think about it, he did it, he did it, he did it, yes he did it.:eek:
 
He intended to throw it, it landed, JDS wins.

There wasn't really any luck involved.
 
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