jds "lucky" punch

[Riodejaneirofan]

If its true Dos Santos is the luckiest fighter in the ufc, the guy knocks people out with one big punch everytime.

 

[a guy]

It wasn't lucky. He set it up with a few body shots beforehand, most notably a right straight to the body a few seconds before the knockout punch. He changed levels and looked like he was gonna hit the body again, Cain tried to counter and junior came over the top. The luck was taken out when JDS used previous strikes to get Cain out of position and bait a punch that he could predict and counter.

 

[QTdd**]

I agree.

If he intended to hit Cain, and he did hit Cain, then that's not random luck. Same with Le/Franklin, or Fedor/Arlovski etc.

There's no such thing as a lucky punch in MMA unless you're swinging wildly with your eyes closed.

Agree

It wasn't lucky. JDS' career consists of early knockouts. If it didn't I might entertain the idea.

Agreed.

As I've said before, these Cain fans just turned into Shogun fans.

"Healthy Cain" can beat JDS.

Right, now GTFO. War JDS.

The only lucky move I recall in recent history was in TUF Smashes Finale, when Alloway threw a front kick to the body of Manny while Manny was switching level and it landed perfect in his chin. Other than that, this sport does not depend much on luck.

You can make a case for a random factor when Leonard Garcia throws a punch, since he pretty much swings his arms wildly without aiming. For JDS, no way.

All of you are wrong.
JDS used his skills, but there was also luck needed for the punch to land and be a KO punch.

 

[wilKO]

All of you are wrong.
JDS used his skills, but there was also luck needed for the punch to land and be a KO punch.

There's luck needed for everything. Everything in MMA has luck to some extent. JDS KOing Cain had little to do with luck. Hes a massive power puncher. His UFC career consists of like 7 KOs and 2 decisions. It's not like Serra GSP at all. Cain also doesn't have the best chin or defence. I dont think it was luck.

 

[snoop dogg***]

Agreed.

As I've said before, these Cain fans just turned into Shogun fans.

"Healthy Cain" can beat JDS.

Right, now GTFO. War JDS.

Not really. Cain is in shape for every fight. He just got caught. It had nothing to do with health. Shogun struggles to get in shape. His title defense against jones was the most out of shape I've seen him in it was almost sad. An in shape shogun would have lost too, but I just couldn't believe how unprepared he looked for that fight

 

[QTdd**]

There's luck needed for everything. Everything in MMA has luck to some extent. JDS KOing Cain had little to do with luck. Hes a massive power puncher. His UFC career consists of like 7 KOs and 2 decisions. It's not like Serra GSP at all. Cain also doesn't have the best chin or defence. I dont think it was luck.

Exactly. There's luck needed in everything.
The problem is that it's extrememly hard to quanify luck, but it's unquestionably present.

 

[chinarice]

that's the most retarded logic.

did you aim punch at the head? then it wasn't lucky?

How about? Did you aim the golfball at the hole? Then the hole in one wasn't lucky....

More goes into a punch than just aiming and swinging, the success depends on how your opponents moves into it and many other things. That's why fighters throw sometimes HUNDREDS of punches each fight and all of them are aiming to do serious damage but most don't.

So what's the difference between all the punches that Cung Le MISSED trying to do that same counter and the one that he landed?

Maybe that's the even better argument against the logic: cung le threw that same punch multiple times. It only landed the one time... so what was the difference?

I'm thinking the answer is that the opponent happened to move into perfectly this time instead of moving his head the other way like last time or staying out of reach like last time when Cung thought he was coming in. That difference IS the luck factor

I think there are WAY less cases of "luck" in MMA than people say.

Why was the punch you intended to land, land and be lucky? I don't get that. Just because you missed multiple times, it is now luck?

So when baseball players like Ichiro Suzuki goes on a slump then gets a base hit, it was luck because he missed those previous times?

You really can't compare apples and oranges like golf holes in one comparing to a KO punch. The probability of a hole-in-one is far less chance of happening than landing a punch on someone not named Anderson Silva.

 

[QTdd**]

People seem to think it's either luck or it's not.
Why can't it be a combination of both, which is the obvious explanation?

 

[Jose Aldo Nova]

Not really. Cain is in shape for every fight. He just got caught. It had nothing to do with health. Shogun struggles to get in shape. His title defense against jones was the most out of shape I've seen him in it was almost sad. An in shape shogun would have lost too, but I just couldn't believe how unprepared he looked for that fight

Respectfully, please read the numerous threads on Sherdog saying how Cain was not healthy for this fight.

 

[KingAvram]

that's the most retarded logic.

did you aim punch at the head? then it wasn't lucky?

How about? Did you aim the golfball at the hole? Then the hole in one wasn't lucky....

More goes into a punch than just aiming and swinging, the success depends on how your opponents moves into it and many other things. That's why fighters throw sometimes HUNDREDS of punches each fight and all of them are aiming to do serious damage but most don't.

So what's the difference between all the punches that Cung Le MISSED trying to do that same counter and the one that he landed?

Maybe that's the even better argument against the logic: cung le threw that same punch multiple times. It only landed the one time... so what was the difference?

I'm thinking the answer is that the opponent happened to move into perfectly this time instead of moving his head the other way like last time or staying out of reach like last time when Cung thought he was coming in. That difference IS the luck factor

I have to admit whether a punch lands or misses depends greatly on the one destined to receive it. a fighter can hit a bag 100% on target.. Catching someone in a fight off guard still isn't luck imo.
You aim at the opening not at the blocking arms. I wouldnt call it luck, its the skills of both fighters who determine the outcome. that's why i believe jds
gonna do it again.

i think the word luck is confusing on this subject. maybe fluke is a better one

 

[ScottyB]

I agree. I've never got to whole luck thing in MMA or most other sports for that matter.
The only was i could think of it in anyway 'lucky' is if Valasquez (through no fault of his own) slipped or something and fell into a punch that would otherwise miss, that didnt happen so to me it wasn't lucky.

 

[wilKO]

Exactly. There's luck needed in everything.
The problem is that it's extrememly hard to quanify luck, but it's unquestionably present.

Well then you are correct.

 

[IAC]

People seem to think it's either luck or it's not.
Why can't it be a combination of both, which is the obvious explanation?

That's because "luck" is an ugly word. I prefer the term "probability".

And the probability of JDS finishing his opponent with strikes is always high.

 

[Jose Aldo Nova]

People seem to think it's either luck or it's not.
Why can't it be a combination of both, which is the obvious explanation?

I like the definition of luck someone else posted - preparation meets opportunity - but you cannot deny that stating "JDS got lucky" or "that punch was lucky" essentially takes the win out of JDS' hands and places then into fate's.

Really, we're talking about semantics here, and "luck" here - for the most part - has negative connotations.

If JDS KOs Cain again in R1, is that still "luck?"

 

[clift]

It wasn't lucky. JDS' career consists of early knockouts. If it didn't I might entertain the idea.

Have to agree. Although I think Cain will win the rematch, Dos Santos' punch was not lucky at all, same goes for Cung Le. If you practice a punch, combo, move, whatever in the gym, you're training yourself to do it exactly the same way when fight time comes around you have the muscle memory to do what you want when you want. Dos Santos' punch got lucky in that it dazed him as badly as it did, but that's where the luck ends.

 

[Natman2939]

I don't agree with your logic. I think there are WAY less cases of "luck" in MMA than people say.

Why was the punch you intended to land, land and be lucky? I don't get that. Just because you missed multiple times, it is now luck?

So when baseball players like Ichiro Suzuki goes on a slump then gets a base hit, it was luck because he missed those previous times?

You really can't compare apples and oranges like golf holes in one comparing to a KO punch. The probability of a hole-in-one is far less chance of happening than landing a punch on someone not named Anderson Silva.

yes actually; if you threw the same punch, intending to land each time, and only one out of 10 landed... there's luck involved

Otherwise, I'd love to hear YOU explain what the difference was between the one that hit and the ones that missed?

And yes, of course, when a baseball player goes into a slump and comes out of it, there is luck involved. If he's trying to use the same technique and failing each time and then suddenly the technique works... something changed but it wasn't something that HE did.

That's basically what we mean by "luck" in this situation: It's anything out of the fighters control.

Cung can aim, Cung can swing; but he can't control what his opponent does; such as where his opponents head ends up. Also he can't really control how well the punch impacts (which is why some punches barely phase someone and others knock people out cold)

Baseball's actually a good comparison. The hitter can aim at the ball, he can swing at the ball, but he can't control exactly where the ball goes or what type of pitch the pitcher uses or exactly how the impact happens (which is why each hit is different)

if the guy hits the ball and it goes right towards someone who can catch it.. that's bad luck, if the guy hits the ball THE EXACT SAME WAY TECHNIQUE-WISE and it goes away from the same outfielder, that's good luck.

People seem to think it's either luck or it's not.
Why can't it be a combination of both, which is the obvious explanation?

This

people don't seem to understand or just don't want to accept that luck is A factor. Not THE only factor, but it's part of the equation.

maybe it's just the word luck. Maybe if we instead said "randomness" or something like that. or "Uncontrollable variables"

 

[chinarice]

Perhaps it was luck that Cain got sloppy and JDS capitalized. The fact that his punch he threw, landed, rocked Cain and lead to him getting finished was not luck.

 

[KingAvram]

yes actually; if you threw the same punch, intending to land each time, and only one out of 10 landed... there's luck involved

Otherwise, I'd love to hear YOU explain what the difference was between the one that hit and the ones that missed?

And yes, of course, when a baseball player goes into a slump and comes out of it, there is luck involved. If he's trying to use the same technique and failing each time and then suddenly the technique works... something changed but it wasn't something that HE did.

That's basically what we mean by "luck" in this situation: It's anything out of the fighters control.

Cung can aim, Cung can swing; but he can't control what his opponent does; such as where his opponents head ends up. Also he can't really control how well the punch impacts (which is why some punches barely phase someone and others knock people out cold)

Baseball's actually a good comparison. The hitter can aim at the ball, he can swing at the ball, but he can't control exactly where the ball goes or what type of pitch the pitcher uses or exactly how the impact happens (which is why each hit is different)

if the guy hits the ball and it goes right towards someone who can catch it.. that's bad luck, if the guy hits the ball THE EXACT SAME WAY TECHNIQUE-WISE and it goes away from the same outfielder, that's good luck.





This

people don't seem to understand or just don't want to accept that luck is A factor. Not THE only factor, but it's part of the equation.

maybe it's just the word luck. Maybe if we instead said "randomness" or something like that. or "Uncontrollable variables"

Agree about the word luck. yet its a saying "lucky punch".
Think "fluke" is what most of them people mean (the Cain jds punch)

i believe from experience that landing a punch in mma or boxing is a matter of your offence for that one moment exceeding the opponents defence. all about your skill vs mine

(btw: my native tongue is romanian, so i hope i use the correct terminology to make my point)

 

[LeoCarmine]

Lucky to critical strike ??
Welcome to the MMARPG era.

 

[QTdd**]

I like the definition of luck someone else posted - preparation meets opportunity - but you cannot deny that stating "JDS got lucky" or "that punch was lucky" essentially takes the win out of JDS' hands and places then into fate's.

Really, we're talking about semantics here, and "luck" here - for the most part - has negative connotations.

If JDS KOs Cain again in R1, is that still "luck?"

I didn't say JDS got lucky. I said it isn't either or, but a combination of skill and luck.
In Junior's case, it was mostly skill because of the timing and body shots setups, dispite bad punching technique.

The problem is that most people will think I'm attacking Junior, but it has nothing to do with him.