Islam vs Charles was a competitive fight. We've convinced ourselves it wasn't.

[FrappeDuRocma]

That judo throw was the result of glove grabbing.
3 minutes in - glove grabs and Oliveira is unable to regain control over his arm and gets rotated for the throw. You can see Islam still holding it trying to secure side control as they fall.

View attachment 1021296View attachment 1021297

Must be Karma, because Oliveira won by grabbing Poirier's glove...

 

[Reptile_Bong_Hit]

GRAPPLING
Charles couldn't get a single legit submission threat going, was basically forced to play defensive guard and use attacks to create scrambles. Since he can't take Islam down his entire grappling game now needs to be effective from the bottom - Islam completely nullified it, he couldn't do anything so was forced to scramble to stand-up since would just lose slowly from bottom.

First of all, I grant that top position generally wins in MMA.

That said, I don't necessarily think failed submission attempts are a waste of time if you're constantly making your opponent defend/work. It's similar to swarming your opponent in boxing to drown them. You'll lose on the cards until your opponent slows down just a touch and now you can threaten with legit subs or sweep to dominant position and reign down GNP in later rounds.

Rightly or wrongly, Charles is a finisher, he ain't worried about the scorecard.

It was an incredible display of technique dominance, which frequently gets mistaken as "competitive" by those that miss these nuances of the game or choose to see fights through a certain pinhole lens to better serve their own ego and interests.

My theory of the fight, is that Islam, while winning, was not in control on the ground. I think he was out of his comfort zone--despite being up on the cards. If Charles went into this fight more disciplined, I wonder if he could outlast him.

Can't compare Charles and Volk--Perhaps Charles can't outlast Islam. However, if Charles somehow did, and got the opportunity Volk did in the 5th round of Islam/Volk I, he gets the finish from top position.

Islam defended or countered every single thing he did in this fight and didn't let him land a single effective strike at range. He basically took away all his tools and that made Oliviera try something stupid (a flying attack at range without set-up, what he did to open the fight so Islam already had a look at the attack and could now counter it).

Agreed. The question is, what happens if Oliveira is more disciplined? What if Islam is not as comfortable defending submissions for 15 minutes as he is dictating the pace? Perhaps Islam is better conditioned anyway, but finding that out is more interesting to me than a Gaethje fight.

 

[Conan the K-9]

First of all, I grant that top position generally wins in MMA.

That said, I don't necessarily think failed submission attempts are a waste of time if you're constantly making your opponent defend/work. It's similar to swarming your opponent in boxing to drown them. You'll lose on the cards until your opponents slows down just a touch and now you can threaten with legit subs or sweep to dominant position and reign down GNP in later rounds.

Rightly or wrongly, Charles is a finisher, he ain't worried about the scorecard.



My theory of the fight, is that Islam, while winning, was not in control on the ground. I think he was out of his comfort zone--despite being up on the cards. If Charles went into this fight more disciplined, I wonder if he could outlast him.

Can't compare Charles and Volk--Perhaps Charles can't outlast Islam. However, if Charles somehow did, and got the opportunity Volk did in the 5th round of Islam/Volk I, he gets the finish from top position.



Agreed. The question is, what happens if Oliveira is more disciplined? What if Islam is not as comfortable defending submissions for 15 minutes as he is dictating the pace? Perhaps Islam is better conditioned anyway, but finding that out is more interesting to me than a Gaethje fight.

I 100% agree with you. Excatly how I see the fight.

And now like the trend here is, I am supposed to talk shit about the poster you quoted and tell you that he is basically an ashole and you should not even answer him. Then I should tell that I like intelligent discussions and have very intelligent views my self!

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

First of all, I grant that top position generally wins in MMA.

That said, I don't necessarily think failed submission attempts are a waste of time if you're constantly making your opponent defend/work. It's similar to swarming your opponent in boxing to drown them. You'll lose on the cards until your opponent slows down just a touch and now you can threaten with legit subs or sweep to dominant position and reign down GNP in later rounds.

Rightly or wrongly, Charles is a finisher, he ain't worried about the scorecard.



My theory of the fight, is that Islam, while winning, was not in control on the ground. I think he was out of his comfort zone--despite being up on the cards. If Charles went into this fight more disciplined, I wonder if he could outlast him.

Can't compare Charles and Volk--Perhaps Charles can't outlast Islam. However, if Charles somehow did, and got the opportunity Volk did in the 5th round of Islam/Volk I, he gets the finish from top position.



Agreed. The question is, what happens if Oliveira is more disciplined? What if Islam is not as comfortable defending submissions for 15 minutes as he is dictating the pace? Perhaps Islam is better conditioned anyway, but finding that out is more interesting to me than a Gaethje fight.

It depends on the submission attempts in all honesty - are you legitimately putting your opponent in peril, so that you can land strikes from bottom while they are forced to expend tons of energy to escape? If so (i.e. Miguel Torres vs. Mighty Mouse), then yes bottom position guard can be a winning position in some situations. Oliviera actually did a really good job from guard against Dariush, now that's what doing well from the bottom should look like.

However, in modern high-level MMA even the best guard players don't have too much to offer the best top position grapplers. They can defend while off their back and still create stand-ups and scrambles, but they aren't getting close to submissions and they are barely able to have any control.

Not to big-up myself as some Uber-grappler but I'm a BJJ black-belt and let me tell you - it is fucking EXHAUSTING working from bottom position try and control/sub guys that are super-strong when you are doing NoGi. Without an insane size advantage (that's how Torres was able to control and threaten Mighty Mouse so much) or an insane skill advantage (i.e. Oliviera vs. Darren Elkins), it's not really an advantageous position at all. People think about guard being this great dynamic attacking position in jiu-jitsu and it really only is with the Gi on - without being able to get a collar or sleeve grip super-strong wrestlers are almost impossible to get posture or arm control on. And that's just in NoGi grappling - if you could throw punches and elbows? Yeah, not playing bottom-game unless I'm absolutely forced to.

If you re-watch it and are honest with yourself Charles had one semi-threatening triangle attempt that wasn't that close to getting in. Even that sequence of him trying to control posture and threaten the triangle cost a lot of energy from the bottom, it's not like you just try this stuff on an absolute beast like Islam without using a ton of strength and energy. And let me tell you something obvious - Islam is far, far stronger than Oliviera. The only submission attempts he's ever been caught in that we've seen in fights are guillotines (just like Khabib) and he always escapes those too, but at least those can get "sunk in" momentarily.

My theory is that Islam was in control on the ground, just being very smart and tactical with Khabib in his corner. What's the game-plan against a dynamic finisher? Get them tired early, don't take chances, just make them work. What's the best way to make someone work? Put them on their back so they are in guard and you can put all your weight on them while the onus is on them to get up. Islam wasn't crushing or smashing Charles, he was just patiently fighting and doing enough to keep the position and let Charles know he would have to be the one to work hard to get out of the position.

Charles losing had nothing to do with discipline - I can't stress this enough, he tried literally EVERYTHING he normally does in fights and none of it was working. He couldn't get kicking range (landed no kicks)l, he couldn't get punching range (landed no punches and got countered when he did throw), he couldn't get dominant grappling positions/locked submission attempts/takedowns, in the clinch he got thrown. If we are being objective it's clear that his style does not match-up while against Islam, to be at his best he needs to have an area of offensive dominance he can use to force opponents to make mistakes and then capitalize and finish him. The only way he could out-last/-out-work Islam would be if he could effectively strike or grapple with him - in this fight he was able to do neither, which is why he got finished inside of two rounds. He didn't slip on a banana peel and get subbed, he fought for almost 10 minutes - 0 punches, 0 kicks, 0 takedowns, 0 legit submissions. Like I already said, outside of the early clinch work in the second round he almost had nothing for Islam in this fight.

I would agree that if Oliviera could get Islam completely gassed and get top position late in the fight he would be a huge threat to finish him. Just the odds of him being able to get Islam completely gassed when he can't effectively pressure him striking or out-grapple him are almost non-existent.

I don't think the real issue was "discipline" - Charles isn't an out-fighter, he has shit striking defense, so he doesn't want to just skirt around the outside of the cage and try to throw occasional random strike. He can be very flat-footed and moves in straight lines, he doesn't like to throw low-power "feeler" strikes, at his core he is a technical pressure-brawler that is focused on being an offensive buzzsaw.

Islam is definitely better conditioned (and just a better athlete) - his level of strength, endurance, etc. is insane and if you let him do top position grappling he could do that endlessly. So there is little to no chance he ever fights someone that can out-grapple and threaten him with subs constantly for multiple rounds.

We've seen the best ways to beat Islam in both the Volk I fight and the Arman fight - you need to be able to match Islam in the clinch and have the counter-grappling to not be controlled immediately, on top of having a certain type of build (stocky/muscular) that makes brawling in the pocket advantageous in some ways (easier to slip in and land attacks, though opens up susceptibility to knees and head kicks). Or be some ridiculous blend of out-fighting/counter-grappling that doesn't really exist at LW.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I 100% agree with you. Excatly how I see the fight.

And now like the trend here is, I am supposed to talk shit about the poster you quoted and tell you that he is basically an ashole and you should not even answer him. Then I should tell that I like intelligent discussions and have very intelligent views my self!

Cool story bro.

 

[RockyLockridge]

It wasn’t competitive at all

 

[Reptile_Bong_Hit]

It depends on the submission attempts in all honesty - are you legitimately putting your opponent in peril, so that you can land strikes from bottom while they are forced to expend tons of energy to escape?...

Good read. Great insight on Gi vs no-Gi. I could definitely be overselling whether Charles' guard activity would pay dividends in later rounds. Unfortunately, we can only speculate on their cardio and mental state at the time.

I still question whether Islam could really defend subs indefinitely because the Volk fight was fought at a slower pace and he still slowed down (mind you, Volk caught him couple times on the feet).

And while I agree that Charles wouldn't "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee", all I mean by 'discipline' is just having a little more patience. Even if nothing is going 1.5 rounds in--it's a 5 round fight!

I don't think "neutralized" equals "dominated"--especially if it pays off down the stretch--but I acknowledge that their fight certainly ended in dominance and that this segment of the discourse is almost purely semantics.

 

[moosaev]

Agreed. The question is, what happens if Oliveira is more disciplined? What if Islam is not as comfortable defending submissions for 15 minutes as he is dictating the pace? Perhaps Islam is better conditioned anyway, but finding that out is more interesting to me than a Gaethje fight.

Then he will cease to be Charles. Charles success comes from his pace and dynamism, there's a reason he almost never sees the final bell whether he wins or loses. Charles isn't a durable fighter if he doesn't push the pace he will wilt.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Good read. Great insight on Gi vs no-Gi. I could definitely be overselling whether Charles' guard activity would pay dividends in later rounds. Unfortunately, we can only speculate on their cardio and mental state at the time.

I still question whether Islam could really defend subs indefinitely because the Volk fight was fought at a slower pace and he still slowed down (mind you, Volk caught him couple times on the feet).

And while I agree that Charles wouldn't "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee", all I mean by 'discipline' is just having a little more patience. Even if nothing is going 1.5 rounds in--it's a 5 round fight!

I don't think "neutralized" equals "dominated"--especially if it pays off down the stretch--but I acknowledge that their fight certainly ended in dominance and that this segment of the discourse is almost purely semantics.

The Volk fight has too many outliers - flying to Australia, special re-hydration rules (less time to re-hydrate between weigh-ins and the fight), etc. Also I think Islam ended up wasting a ton of energy in grappling exchanges that caught-up to him later; holding a body-triangle for 3+ minutes as hard as possible multiple times while a ball of granite fights endlessly to get out makes your legs feel like rubber.

I don't think anyone is going to be threatening Islam with chain-submissions if Oliviera can't do it - he's literally the best submission MMA fighter we've ever seen. Which should show you the level of grappling skill Islam has, since Charles has insta-subbed many a black-belt and made them look like chum on the mats. The way to beat Islam is definitely in the stand-up, he doesn't have a granite chin and he can look awkward and sloppy when he has to lead with combinations (far better off the back foot with his hands).

I see what you are saying about Charles needing to have more patience and would agree, it's just counter-intuitive to his style. Realistically Charles should be staying outside of kicking range and looking to methodically close distance with feints, try to bait Islam to lead and counter him, but if he won't lead just keep feinting and looking to set-up shots. But Charles is not an out-fighter, he doesn't use feints to get reads and use them as set-ups; again, he is a technical brawler/swarmer/blitzer (however you want to put it), his defense is pretty poor (not much head movement, chin up, comes in straight lines) but he makes up for it by being taller/longer with a variety of dynamic attacks that include kicks and knees so most fighters end up being pushed back with that offensive threat.

Islam's defense and ability to gauge attacks means he just moved out of the way of everything Charles threw from range - re-watch the fight, all of the kicks are hitting air or an extended glove because Charles does not have a process to actually land outside strikes with consistency, it's much more akin to a Carlos Condit "select-a-strike" approach where they decide what technique they are going to try before they do it, it's not an instinctive technique that is drilled and reactive.

We are arguing semantics in this thread (i.e. what makes something dominant vs. competitive), so it's a matter of perception that operates on a scale. A lot of same people in this thread that say this fight was competitive will also say Charles dominated Gaethje and Poirer simply because he violently finished them, while ignoring that Charles got dropped multiple times by both. To me it's far more "dominant" to not take damage, not get controlled, and shut down your opponents offense then it is to get in a wild brawl where you come out on top with superior offense.

 

[Reptile_Bong_Hit]

Then he will cease to be Charles. Charles success comes from his pace and dynamism, there's a reason he almost never sees the final bell whether he wins or loses. Charles isn't a durable fighter if he doesn't push the pace he will wilt.

I hear ya, brother. But let's have a look at the "Aggression Scale":

10: Prime Wand
9: Oliveria
8: Prime Colby
7: Holloway
6: DP
...

All I'm suggesting is that he turn it down 1-2 notches. Not turn into Adesanya.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I hear ya, brother. But let's have a look at the "Aggression Scale":

10: Prime Wand
9: Oliveria
8: Prime Colby
7: Holloway
6: DP
...

All I'm suggesting is that he turn it down 1-2 notches. Not turn into Adesanya.

The issue is that by turning down the aggression you need more layered defense and out-fighting tools - notice how the guy you consider the least aggressive is Adesanya, whom is the most skilled defensive out-fighter you can think of?

To be less aggressive and effective he would need to learn how to out-fight; he's a world-champion level fighter that got there by being a dynamic offensive pressure fighter, his style is not exactly "flexible" where he can operate in different modalities effectively. Can you think of a single fight where Oliviera stays on the edge of kicking range and just snipes at someone?

Could he be less aggressive and out-fight? Sure, it's just he doesn't really jab and use lateral movement on top of the porous defense, so it seems like he'd be really bad at it.

 

[Dana's Moonface]

This isn't about me changing your mind or you changing my mind, it's about being able to make a relatively sound argument to back up your claim that this was a competitive fight.

Then, even if I disagreed with you I could still say I understand your points/reasoning/perspective - I do this quite frequently with people I have disagreements with; I get them to explain their point of view, I explain mine, we go back and forth over the intangible nuances, and in the end of if we both approached the engagement with true honest intellectual curiosity we might not take the others opinions but our own might gain further depth and understanding in the process.

You basically just refuse to engage in this process from the onset, and then only as a last minute tactical delusion do you start throwing out random arguments that aren't fully-flushed out and you assume should be taken at face value.

If you want to post your video explanation I'll gladly watch it.

As far as official stats go -



I have eyes, I don't need to be manipulated by completely made up stats that aren't accurate or don't properly reflect how a fight should be scored. They count any strike to the face as a significant strike (no matter if it lands on guard/shoulder sometimes, and no matter how hard it lands) and they also count soft hamer-fists from guard that do nothing the same as body shots lol.

Here are the FIGHT METRIC STATS vs. THE REAL STATS (the ones used by watching the fight with my eyes and doing the play-by-play above)

FIGHT METRIC

ROUND 1
Charles = 10 strikes landed, 6 significant
Islam = 51 strikes landed, 12 signficant

ROUND 2
Charles = 15 strikes landed, 13 signficant
Islam = 21 strikes landed, 18 significant

REAL FIGHT STATS - no bullshit counting the baby strikes either throws on the ground, here is the strikes landed in order so you can see what the rhythm of the fight was like:

RD1
Islam Straight
Islam Hook
Islam Hook
Islam Knee
Charles Knee
Islam Knee
Islam Elbow (GnP)
Islam Punch (GnP)
Charles Upkick
Charles Elbow from Bottom

ROUND 1
Charles = 3 Strikes landed (1 Clinch Knee/1 Upkick/1 Elbow from Bottom)
Islam = 7 Strikes Landed (3 Punches Standing [one that stunned him], 2 Clinch Knee, 2 GnP shots)

RD2
Islam Glancing Straight
Islam Hook
Charles Elbow
Charles Knee
Charles Knee
Charles Elbow
Islam Knee
Charles Knee
Islam Hook
Islam Straight
Islam Jab
Islam Straight
Islam Hook
Islam High-Kick (partially blocked)
Islam Hook (drops him)

ROUND 2
Charles = 5 Strikes landed (2 Clinch Elbows, 3 Clinch Knees)
Islam = 10 Strikes landed (7 Punches Standing [including the one that dropped him], 1 partially blocked high kick, 1 clinch knee)

Just looking at the raw stats the main takeaway is that Oliviera got his game almost entirely shut-down, outside of the nice start of the second round in the clinch when he did his best work and arguably out-fought Islam for a minute (though he used way more energy than he wanted to and ended up having to fight out of a position he didn't want to be in).

I can see having re-watched it and done the stats that the Oliviera wasn't dominated in the clinch but he didn't win there either - he landed like one more knee and a couple short elbows but nothing truly significant, and it led to him being thrown in the first round and wasting a bunch of energy to start the second round. Islam is stronger in the clinch and it's just a bad spot to be in against a superior wrestler that isn't shorter than you by much.

Early in a fight against a dangerous submission fighter sitting in their closed guard and just shutting down their offensive grappling is part of the game. You are making them work and getting them tired, as the fight goes on you get more slippery and they get more tired making the submissions way tougher to land. It's called using tactics to achieve a strategy; if you've got a dangerous submission fighter you don't just try to pound their head in once you get them down early when they are fresh and dangerous, you take your time and break their posture, position, energy, will, etc. If Islam tried to smash and pass he'd easily give up a scramble or a submission set-up and be in a bad spot or forced to allow Charles to stand on his terms. By being safe and patient it puts the onus on Oliviera to work out of the position, one in which if nothing happens he is losing so he has to accept that it's on him to escape.

Here's some food for thought - the actual recent "COMPETITIVE" fights that Oliviera was in were his title run fights of Chandler/Gaethje/Poirer. In those fights both guys almost got finished, both took damage, both had moments of controlling the fight.

FYI - FKL got his knees mangled and was constantly in nightmare submission attacks and could not hold down or control Charles for more than 30 seconds at most.

Damn man, you are on fire with your input in this thread

You are debating with haters. Ironically that one guy always says that we who don't think it was competitive, don't know what we are talking about and can't explain.

Here you are now schooling with the facts and it still won't do any good. You can lead a horse to water and all that

Was it a complete mauling? No
Was it competitive? Also no

Islam had a gameplay and it implemented it perfectly. If it was a random fighter, not Charles? Nobody would be wanting a rematch

I imagine the same haters would still give Islam no credit if he beat him again, saying he is ducking new challengers

 

[Alpha_T83]

Sadly wasn't competitive. And this is from someone cheering for Oliveira.

 

[moosaev]

I 100% agree with you. Excatly how I see the fight.

And now like the trend here is, I am supposed to talk shit about the poster you quoted and tell you that he is basically an ashole and you should not even answer him. Then I should tell that I like intelligent discussions and have very intelligent views my self!

Dude, just yesterday you liked a post that was insulting the religion of Islam in the most vile manner,....so let's not pretend we don't know the reason you dislike the Dagestanis. It has absolutely nothing to do with their fight style or personality, you're just a bigot.

 

[Conan the K-9]

Dude, just yesterday you liked a post that was insulting the religion of Islam in the most vile manner,....so let's not pretend we don't know the reason you dislike the Dagestanis. It has absolutely nothing to do with their fight style or personality, you're just a bigot.

Haha, so it’s always when you like here something you agree? You (and some other ones here, so you are not the only one) should have a look at the mirror.

I miss Akmed, at least he was able to develope somekind of sense for discussion and humor before he left here.
But nice that you are following my moves here

 

[moosaev]

Haha, so it’s always when you like here something you agree? You (and some other ones here, so you are not the only one) should have a look at the mirror.

I miss Akmed, at least he was able to develope somekind of sense for discussion and humor before he left here.
But nice that you are following my moves here

You're not fooling anyone man. It's honestly pathetic that you have to hate an athlete for no other reason than their religion. But you do you.

 

[Conan the K-9]

You're not fooling anyone man. It's honestly pathetic that you have to hate an athlete for no other reason than their religion. But you do you.

You are wrong here buddy, but as always you think you are right.

I’m no fan of his and I don’t hide it, but it is because of other reasons.

 

[moosaev]

You are wrong here buddy, but as always you think you are right.

I’m no fan of his and I don’t hide it, but it is because of other reasons.

buuuulllllshit

I'd respect you more if you just admitted it lol. You have every right to be a bigot if you want, just don't be a coward and invent reasons that aren't real.

 

[Conan the K-9]

buuuulllllshit

I'd respect you more if you just admitted it lol. You have every right to be a bigot if you want, just don't be a coward and invent reasons that aren't real.

No it’s true. Why should I admit something That’s not true? For you religious people it seems to be easy?

I’m all about equality, respecting everyone, same possibilities, opportunities, laws and rules for everyone. Honesty, fair play, truth, facts, no cheating, no positive discrimination, no exceptions, no privileges.

He seems to represent almost all the opposites, and that makes him unlikeable and he has bigot fans too. I care zero f*cks what his choice of fairytale book is, he chooses to believe in.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

No it’s true. Why should I admit something That’s not true? For you religious people it seems to be easy?

I’m all about equality, respecting everyone, same possibilities, opportunities, laws and rules for everyone. Honesty, fair play, truth, facts, no cheating, no positive discrimination, no exceptions, no privileges.

He seems to represent almost all the opposites, and that makes him unlikeable and he has bigot fans too. I care zero f*cks what his choice of fairytale book is, he chooses to believe in.

After a dozen pages of bullshit the truth comes out.

We are trying to analyze a fight, not make it a discussion on politics, ethics, morals, religion, etc.

You are so blinded by your own hubris you let your hate consume your perception of reality.

Sad.