The "win-after-a-bye" rate is certainly an objective stat, but it doesn't tell us much. The reason is you haven't provided any regression analysis controlling for record. Those teams with a bye enjoy a stronger average record, so they are already less likely to win. That's like pointing to the fact teams with a stronger home seed in the NBA playoffs (#1-#4) have a higher win percentage in the NBA playoffs. Of course they do! They earned one of the top four seeds. It's not a coincidence that these teams secured this. They're the better teams.
Start with Brady's sophomore season in 2001, since he only played a single game as a rookie (few rookies play), and leaving out 2008 since that was the year he was injured, here are the regular season records for the teams you mentioned-- since I noticed you didn't want to talk about the Lions, but you did want to talk about this year's defenses for these two teams as if they reflect overall divisional quality for the past two decades:
NFC North
- Minnesota Vikings: 145-125-2 (53.7% win percentage= 8.6 wins avg per season, or staggered 8-8 and 9-7 seasons)
- Chicago Bears: 135-135-0 (50.0% win percentage = 8.0 wins avg per season, or 8-8 seasons)
- Detroit Lions: 104-166-0 (38.5% win percentage = 6.2 wins avg per season, or ~6-10 seasons)
AFC East
- New York Jets: 123-147-0 (45.6% win percentage = 7.3 wins avg per season, or ~7-9 seasons)
- Miami Dolphins: 121-149-0 (44.8% win percentage = 7.2 wins avg per season, or ~7-9 seasons)
- Buffalo Bills: 112-258-0 (41.5% win percentage = 6.6 wins avg per season, or staggered 6-10 and 7-9 seasons)
Notice how these things stabilize over time? Unless I'm mistaken, the Detroit Lions have been the worst franchise in the league during this span. You're talking about these franchises like Aaron is playing nothing but ring threats every year. It's hogwash.
Furthermore, games against division opponents compose 6 of 16 games every season, so it's only about 1/3 of the regular season, but you also can't overlook the comparative effect. The AFC East above has had to cope with Brady, not Rodgers, for these 17 seasons, and that greatly affects their record (34 of the 270 games for each team listed here is against Green Bay or New England, respectively, when the latter has been the more dominant team
due to Brady). If I had an appetite for tedium at the moment I would go through and subtract all the games against New England and Green Bay, respectively. The records here be that much closer to equal.
Stop blaming Aaron's division for his inability to be the best in the NFL. Tom laughs. He doesn't care what division it is: he would have dominated either of these in the same fashion. That's why he's at the Super Bowl every third year. Doesn't matter who he plays, or where he's coming from.
You didn't cite any stats to substantiate Brady's rich history of defenses, but more importantly, you ignored a critical dynamic. Teams have a limited amount of resources: money for salary and draft picks. If a team spends those resources on defenses, then they don't have them to spend on offense. This is why Brady has been making more with less for so long on the offensive end. He also hasn't sucked up the contracts that Rodgers has sucked up. So you don't get to talk about team defense like it's an achievement that lives in a vacuum. Furthermore, Aaron doesn't play on that side of the ball. So how about offense? Using the Offense Simple Rating System, an advanced team metric which measures a team's overall offensive output relative to the average team in the league (avg= 0.0). We won't dance around the half seasons Rodgers had in 2017 & 2013.
Offense Simple Rating System
Brady (2001-2018,
2008):
6.46 avg
Rodgers (2008-2018):
4.08 avg
The gap would be bigger if Tom hadn't been hurt in 2008. How do I know? Well, that godly team, the previous season in 2007, notched a
15.9 OSRS with Brady at the wheel: the highest ever recorded by miles (Rodger's highest ever was 11.5 in 2011). The following season, under the leadership of Cassel, who Brady salt shakers everywhere insist could slip into his jock without rustling a feather of fate, that
nearly identical roster notched a
2.3 OSRS.
Brady is GOAT, in his own class, and let's stop wasting time by comparing 2nd tier QBs to him. Rodgers is more appropriately compared to Brees, Manning, maybe the upcoming Mahomes, and the other also-rans who can't only hope to grab a broom and jab it against the ceiling of Brady's penthouse while shouting at him to keep the noise down. Gronk won't oblige.