Elections Hillary will be President.

[Jukai]

The key is white working-class Southerners. A lot of them have favorable views of Clinton and agree with Democrats about most issues, but have an aversion to a black candidate. That's visible in the data, but you also have a lot of anecdotes to support it. McCain/Romney would have won that group even if Obama were white, but not by the same margin. I don't see any comparable benefits that Obama had. I don't think it was a huge factor, and obviously Obama won anyway, but I think it's clear that to the extent that race mattered, it worked against him.

I think I read some anecdotal BS about greater black voter turnout voting for Obama, but it was marginal... which I would group the "white working-class Southerners" into as well, since I think there are more blue collar southerners who vote Republican than moderate democrat.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think I read some anecdotal BS about greater black voter turnout voting for Obama, but it was marginal... which I would group the "white working-class Southerners" into as well, since I think there are more blue collar southerners who vote Republican than moderate democrat.

Black turnout was up. That helped Obama, though it's hard to say to what extent the increased turnout was related to a black candidate. Seems likely that it was some, but it's not visible in the data (that is, there's no spike to explain*). But white working-class Southerners are something of a swing group, that Romney crushed among. That said, if you're looking for a pop in the data, it's not really there. They voted for Clinton, Gore lost them by nine points, but then Kerry was smashed, and Obama did OK against McCain before getting smashed worse than Kerry was against Romney. I'd argue that the Romney campaign used a lot more racial coding than McCain did. The difference between white working class voters in other regions and the South was striking**.

*

**

 

[Jukai]

You make a compelling argument, but just like it is hard to say black turnout was increased because of Obama's color, it's also hard to say that the working class in the south wasn't simply just too turned off by Obama's previous four years. Both are likely true and I think whichever one is higher (looks like your data suggests the white working class went away from Obama towards Romney at a bigger rate), it's still just too negligible to really say one way or another.

Which is why it just kills me when (word I was going to use removed due to change in War Room rules) believe that Obama won ONLY because he was black, and Hilary is going to win ONLY because she is a woman.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Which is why it just kills me when (word I was going to use removed due to change in War Room rules) believe that Obama won ONLY because he was black, and Hilary is going to win ONLY because she is a woman.

Well, I think it's obvious that Obama didn't win solely because he was black because I think that it's obvious that it hurt more than it helped, but if your preferred takeaway is that it wasn't a major factor either way, that's also defensible. I don't think it's right to say that it made no difference, though. And, yeah, I don't think any good analysis of 2016 is going to put much weight on Clinton being a woman.

 

[Jukai]

Well, I think it's obvious that Obama didn't win solely because he was black because I think that it's obvious that it hurt more than it helped, but if your preferred takeaway is that it wasn't a major factor either way, that's also defensible. I don't think it's right to say that it made no difference, though. And, yeah, I don't think any good analysis of 2016 is going to put much weight on Clinton being a woman.

Fair, I should take back "it made no difference" because it certainly did. But I think the net effect was negligible, and honestly it's shocking how the conservative crowd talks about it like it was a real though (though, I guess in fairness had Obama lost, the Dem crowd may have done the same).

 

[Deleted member 457759]

do you think obama being black was a net positive or a net negative? i'd have to say net negative.

Shows where you're coming from. Campaigned on being new and black which was symbolic for the "change" he constantly spoke of. Got in the Oval Office because of it. Then campaigned the second time on making sure the first black president does two terms. Otherwise the first black presidency will go down in history as a 1 term failure.

Um......are you trolling? You're Damn rights it was a net gain.

 

[Deleted member 457759]

Well, I think it's obvious that Obama didn't win solely because he was black because I think that it's obvious that it hurt more than it helped, but if your preferred takeaway is that it wasn't a major factor either way, that's also defensible. I don't think it's right to say that it made no difference, though. And, yeah, I don't think any good analysis of 2016 is going to put much weight on Clinton being a woman.

considering a large part of his campaigning platform was based around his race, and coercing people into thinking they're racist for not supporting him, and then he won two terms how can you say that his race was a negative?

It got him elected.

 

[Jukai]

considering a large part of his campaigning platform was based around his race, and coercing people into thinking they're racist for not supporting him, and then he won two terms how can you say that his race was a negative?

It got him elected.

Do you have ANYTHING to back up this claim? Anything at all?

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

considering a large part of his campaigning platform was based around his race, and coercing people into thinking they're racist for not supporting him, and then he won two terms how can you say that his race was a negative?

It got him elected.

Please provide proof of this claim.

You've repeated this claim several claims without substantiating it at all.

 

[Bay Area]

Do you have ANYTHING to back up this claim? Anything at all?

What, you don't remember his campain ad in 2008 that said:

Hey America, vote for me! I'm "new and Black!"

 

[Jukai]

What, you don't remember his campain ad in 2008 that said:

Hey America, vote for me! I'm "new and Black!"

That was "hope and change." The change part was for the liberals, who wanted to see a black president. The hope part was for the conservative leaning swing voters, who hoped they could pass off voting for him because he is part white.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Fair, I should take back "it made no difference" because it certainly did. But I think the net effect was negligible, and honestly it's shocking how the conservative crowd talks about it like it was a real though (though, I guess in fairness had Obama lost, the Dem crowd may have done the same).

Yes, it probably didn't make a big difference. Racial messaging goes on regardless of the race of the actual candidate (that is, Republicans still use "they're going to give all your money to those people against white Democrats). If Obama had lost to McCain, I would have thought that race was a big factor just because that would have been totally inexplicable to me. If he'd lost to Romney, I would have thought that the economy was the main factor.

considering a large part of his campaigning platform was based around his race, and coercing people into thinking they're racist for not supporting him, and then he won two terms how can you say that his race was a negative?

"Considering (that a factually unsupported and wildly implausible narrative is true) and he won, how can you say that (conclusion depending on false premise) is true?"

You're begging the question there. You have to establish your premise first, and that's not going to happen because it's nuts.

 

[Jukai]

I still quasi like McCain, even if he has gotten pretty warmongering in his old age. He just made so many bad decisions. The reason he was such a likeable candidate was BECAUSE he was a candidate who actually voted for what he believed in and not the party line, I have no idea why he thought he could win by keeping that label but falling back on completely mimicking the GOP label. It's like calling himself "maverick" was good enough to hide everything else.

 

[ruthless robert]

What did he say he would do that he didn't?

Not saying he didn't break promises, but I want to hear what your grievances are.

Hmm. What did you like about the platform in 2008 that didn't get done?

 

[Jack V Savage]

I asked you personally. Can you answer?

 

[ruthless robert]

I asked you personally. Can you answer?

are your speakers broke on your computer?

can you not hear what Obama is saying and promising in the video?

.

 

[Jack V Savage]

are your speakers broke on your computer?

can you not hear what Obama is saying and promising in the video?

OK, so I'm going to conclude that you haven't thought about this yourself and have no answer.

 

[Lead]

You picked the overwhelming leader in the polls to be president and call it a bold prediction? Wow, great job buddy. We will be so impressed if that comes true.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

What, you don't remember his campain ad in 2008 that said:

Hey America, vote for me! I'm "new and Black!"

Oh yeah, now I remember...it was immediately followed by, "Vote for Me, if not you are racist."

I also saw the, "hey, it's Payback for Slavery...vote for the Black guy."

 

[Fronk]

This video says it all. Low information voters. Basically, it's "because she's a woman."

And one guy even says that Benghazi is her greatest accomplishment? WTF?

Scary that these people can vote.

Pretty obvious this video comes from some republican "think-tank", it's like a Jay Leno-bit. Sad stuff nonetheless...